Macroeconomic Reforms and Agriculture Policies in Developing Countries: CLIMATE VULNERABILITY ON FAMILIAR AGRICULTURE (Cases from Mexico and Argentina) Monica Wehbe Hallie Eakin

Environmental Stress Socio-Political Stress Livelihood Strategies “Not only can the simultaneous impact of environmental and socio-political stress produce new circumstances of livelihood insecurity, but also the responses of farm systems to socio-political stress can alter their sensitivity to future climate impacts” Environmental Stress Socio-Political Stress Livelihood Strategies Sensitivity Climate Impacts Adaptive Capacity

How are broad-scale socioeconomic processes of change in Mexico and Argentina, translated into region and sector-specific policy and institutional reforms, affecting different types of farm systems and their capacities to adapt to climate variability and change? Hypothesis: Privatization AC (agriculture inputs, providers and services) Market liberalization AC (trade openness and deregulation) Cutting public expenditure AC (public research & extension services) Entry of New Actors to the “new rules of the game” AC

Argentina (Reforms’ impacts) Increasing need for technology; Restructuring of productive and organizational processes; Loss of income purchasing power; Small & medium size family farmers driven out of business; New productive agents, new ways of arranging production process and foreign investment; New agriculture socio-productive structure.

Unequal Impacts:Family farmers after Reforms More technology / Higher productivity; Increasing production costs; Greater reliance on commercial and technological means of risk management; Increasing specialization in one commercial crop; Less on & off-farm activities; More need for non-farm activities; Local economy

Implications for family farmers climate vulnerability Production & Economy Less economic margin for coping with adverse climate events Cultivation on poor soils & areas highly exposed to climate variability Loss of diversification at the household economy More short-term and market concerns Land rental Increasing mono-cropping Soil degradation/pollution/diseases SENSITIVITY ADAPTIVE CAPACITY VULNERABILITY

↓ No.>40% ↑Size 45-74% ↓No.30-40% ↑Size 23-54% ↓No. 20-30% ↑Size (-8)-47% ↓No. <20% ↑Size 2-24%

End of Presentation Thank you Monitoring the relationships between macro-level policy, sector programs, environmental change and the differential capacities of particular populations to manage climate risk is a critical task for future research… End of Presentation Thank you