Proposed Project – “Toward a Methodology for Tsunami Risk Analysis” Project Motivation (from NTHMP Strategic Plan 2009-2013) • NTHMP Performance Metrics: “… support a research effort to develop U.S. tsunami risk assessment methodologies” to “… develop quantitative tsunami hazard analysis techniques including source determination and probability of occurrence” and “determine applicability of economic and loss estimation tools (e.g. HAZUS) by 2010” • NTHMP Risk Definition: ‘‘. . . the product of the probability of the occurrence of a tsunami (i.e., the ‘‘hazard’’) times the loss of property and life due to the tsunami” Study Context • Nation needs multiple approaches for tsunami risk analysis (e.g., life safety, economic impacts, livelihood impacts, natural resources, infrastructure resilience, etc.) • Project focuses on life safety aspects of risk (e.g., evacuation potential) • First steps towards one tool in a national toolbox of tsunami risk analysis • Begins research dialogue on needed tools and approaches in national toolbox

+ Proposed Project – “Toward a Methodology for Tsunami Risk Analysis” Goal: Improve understanding and metrics of societal risk to tsunamis Objectives: • Integrate probabilistic hazard models, socioeconomic asset distributions, evacuation time models, and casualty loss models • Examine life safety aspects of HAZUS tool (e.g., forces on people and buildings) Study Components: Community Engagement (George Crawford, SRC) II. Tsunami Hazard Modeling (Frank González, UW/ESS) III. Socioeconomic and Evacuation Metrics (Nate Wood, USGS) 100-yr Max Height 500-yr Max Height Land Cover Residents Employees + Seaside, OR Ocean Shores, WA

Proposed Project – “Toward a Methodology for Tsunami Risk Analysis” Study Phases and Products Relevance to Population Relevance to Structures I. Initial Community Engagement - Project scoping and issue identification - Issue identification II. Tsunami Hazard Assessment - Exceedance values for 100- and 500-year event - Inundation depth, current speed, etc. - Impact Forces, e.g., momentum flux, etc… - Evacuation potential - Potential casualty zones - Identifies existing structures at risk - Siting, type, and cost of new structures III. Socio-Economic Metrics - Asset distribution and evacuation potential - Evacuation issues - Education and training needs IV. Risk Analyses - Risk of fatalities - Risk of destruction V. Community Engagement - Feedback, dissemination, use of results - Mitigation planning - Response planning - Outreach planning - Urban Planning - Mitigation Planning Proposed Study Areas and Timeline: 2010 – Long Beach Peninsula – to leverage “Tsunami Safe Haven” project 2011 – Ocean Shores, WA

Proposed Project – “Toward a Methodology for Tsunami Risk Analysis” References I. Community Engagement - Wood, N., Good, J., and Goodwin, B., 2002, Vulnerability assessment of a port and harbor community to earthquake and tsunami hazards: integrating technical expert and stakeholder input,Natural Hazards Review, 3 (4), 148-157 II. Tsunami Hazard Modeling - González, F.I., et al. (2009): Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment: The Seaside, Oregon, Pilot Project, J. Geophys. Res., 114, C11023, doi:10.1029/2008JC005132 - Lukkunaprasit, P., et al. (2009): Experimental Verification of FEMA P646 Tsunami Loading, Journal of Disaster ResearchVol.4No.6, pp. 1-9. Socioeconomic Vulnerability and Evacuation Potential - Sleeter, R., and Wood, N., 2006, Estimating daytime and nighttime population density for coastal communities in Oregon: Proceedings of the Urban and Regional Information Systems Association, Annual Conference, Vancouver, BC, September 26-29, 2006, 8 p - Wood, N., Burton, C., and Cutter, S., 2010, Community variations in social vulnerability to Cascadia-related tsunamis in the U.S. Pacific Northwest, Natural Hazards, 52(2), 369-389 - Wood, N., and Soulard, C., 2008, Variations in community exposure and sensitivity to tsunami hazards on the open-ocean and Strait of Juan de Fuca coasts of Washington: USGS Scientific Investigations Report 2008-5004, 34 p. - Yeh, H., in press, Gender and Age Factors in Tsunami Casualties (2010): Natural Hazards Review 4