Ideas for NWS EPS Advancement Tony Eckel Naval Postgraduate School

EPS Components Foundation: Observations, Data Assimilation, the Model(s), Model Resolution, … Ensemble: Initial Condition Perturbations, Model Perturbations, # of Members, … III. Exploitation: Post-processing, Products, Verification, User Education, …

Design all components based on Value first, Skill second Evolving to “service paradigm” with focus on optimizing users’ decision processes requires different emphasis for measuring forecast quality since skill ≠value Metrics of Value (e.g., ROCSS, VS, etc.) measure quality from user perspective Metrics of Skill (e.g., BSS, CRPS, etc.) are important for scientific evaluation Requires intimate relationship with users to understand their weather sensitivities and risk tolerances

Post-Processing Truth: Must capture phenomena and scales of concern to user Reforecast dataset required for robust calibration Match EPS design (no short cuts!) Length dependent upon capturing user phenomena Down-scaling critical to value Meteorological consistency within each member may be challenging issue

Thorough and Open Verification Critical to building user confidence Focused on user sensitivities User-friendly: web-based, interactive, well documented, etc. Continuously updated Link with products and education

User Education Need campaign (concerted effort) to teach users methods for optimal decision making given forecast uncertainty information Broad-based: Specific users and general public Include detailed strengths and weaknesses of the EPS