Local Climate Impacts Profile

LCLIP GLOUCESTERSHIRE Profiling the impact of extreme weather over ten years How can we adapt to extreme weather in the future? Where are we vulnerable now?

Methodology Media Survey Interviews within Local Authority Expand process to include district councils and external partners Phase 1: County CouncilPhase 1: County Council Phase 2: District CouncilsPhase 2: District Councils Phase 3: External partners, e.g PCT, Police etcPhase 3: External partners, e.g PCT, Police etc

129 Media Articles 65 Unique Weather Events 65 Unique Weather Events 270 reported impacts 270 reported impacts Media Survey

Dominant Extreme Weather Types Excessive Rainfall/ Flooding Storms These two categories account for: 69% of unique weather events, and 77% of reported incidents

Impacts of Extreme Weather Excessive Rain/ Flooding Storms/ Hurricanes/ Tornadoes (High winds) High temperature/ Heat waves Frost/ Ice/ Snow (Low Temperatures)

Flooding : 45 media reports 12 unique events 12 unique events 37% of reported impacts 37% of reported impacts Twin Threat: Flash Flooding Twin Threat: Flash Flooding Riverine Flooding Riverine Flooding UKCIP02 Projections Winters up to 30% wetter by 2080 Winters up to 30% wetter by 2080 Frequency of heavy rainfall events to increase Frequency of heavy rainfall events to increase Although summers projected to be significantly drier on average, Although summers projected to be significantly drier on average, heavy downpours may account for more of the total heavy downpours may account for more of the total

Extreme Riverine Flooding (July 22 nd -23 rd 2007) Rivers Severn and Avon burst their banks Worst day in living memory Rivers Severn and Avon burst their banks - Many communities completely cut off by flood waters, inc.Tewkesbury - 5 deaths, thousands of homes are flooded, emergency services work 24/7 - Mythe Water treatment plant flooded – Walham substation narrowly escapes - 350,000 people without drinking water for two weeks Case Study: Summer 2007 (Longlevens, June 25th 2007) Rapid Flash flooding A Floody Mess Waters hit 4ft then recede completely within 8 hours, wrecking many properties. 1 (July 20 th 2007) (July 20 th 2007) Towns grind to a halt in the flooding Widespread Rapid Flash Flooding 10,000 motorists stranded on flooded M5 500 commuters stranded at Gloucester Train Station 2000 people stay in emergency rest centres 2 3

Costs to the Council Property Damage: Schools: £2.4 million Non-ed: £135,000 Infrastructure: Highways: £25m+ repairs to roads Disruption to Council Business: Understaffing/ overload Communication problems Alt. travel: £21,000, Closure of Shire Hall Social Services: Re-housing costs Looking after the vulnerable Pressure on services: Fire and Rescue: £233,000 overtime Waste: Cost of clean-up, Cost of extra waste Unforeseen issues Recovery Costs Recovery Costs £50m £50m And counting… And counting…

Waste Management Department: £206,000 to dispose of extra waste generated by floods Costs of clean-up? Costs of Collection? Publicity and outreach department shutdown for two weeks- cost?

Council Contact Centre Overwhelmed Abandonment rate for Council Direct hits 10.8% (7.8% ave.)

Communities in Crisis 5 Lives lost Many lives saved Homes wiped out Homes wiped out Families lost everything Families lost everything 350,000 without water 350,000 without water Inches from catastrophic loss of power Inches from catastrophic loss of power Health risk- stagnant water- two weeks without working toiletsHealth risk- stagnant water- two weeks without working toilets Agriculture- crops wiped out, winter-fodder destroyedAgriculture- crops wiped out, winter-fodder destroyed Impact on business and tourism- No power, no water Gloucestershire perceived as closed for businessImpact on business and tourism- No power, no water Gloucestershire perceived as closed for business Long-term psychological impact?Long-term psychological impact? Long-term viability of communities that flood repeatedly?Long-term viability of communities that flood repeatedly?

Adaptation implications Fluvial Flooding (Rivers) Restrict flood-plain development (affordable homes or poverty traps?)Restrict flood-plain development (affordable homes or poverty traps?) Intelligent flood defence- demountable barriers, low intensity land-use, expansion of wetland areas (nature map) - dialogue with farming communityIntelligent flood defence- demountable barriers, low intensity land-use, expansion of wetland areas (nature map) - dialogue with farming community Multi-agency flood responseMulti-agency flood response Predictable impacts- response planningPredictable impacts- response planning Pluvial (Flash) Flooding Unpredictable, rapid impactsUnpredictable, rapid impacts very little time to reactvery little time to react Potentially more dangerous (M5 flooding)Potentially more dangerous (M5 flooding) Researching hotspotsResearching hotspots Focus on community resilienceFocus on community resilience Dealing with psychological impact is an important element of community resilience

Storms ( inc. high winds ) : 55 media reports 44 unique events 44 unique events 42% of reported impacts 42% of reported impacts Threat to life, disruption to roads and power UKCIP02 Projections Heavier winter precipitation expected to become more frequent Heavier winter precipitation expected to become more frequent Winter storms and mild, wet and windy winter weather are Winter storms and mild, wet and windy winter weather are expected to become more frequent expected to become more frequent

Highways Removing obstructions Roadside maintenance Health and Safety External events All Departments Travel disruption Business continuity Waste Potential shutdown of landfill sites CAC/ CYP Social services Power cuts Safeguarding the vulnerable the vulnerable Impact of storms on GCC Property Services Damage to buildings Damage to buildings Legal Civil liability claims Civil liability claims Department/ Unit

Countywide Impact 36 incidences of power failure: 20th February 2008: 3,469 homes- Cheltenham 20th February 2008: 3,469 homes- Cheltenham 12th January 2005: 17,000 homes 12th January 2005: 17,000 homes 27th October 2002: 33,000 homes (Forest of Dean) 27th October 2002: 33,000 homes (Forest of Dean) 15 th December 2000: Storm knocks out power at nursing home 6 schools close15 th December 2000: Storm knocks out power at nursing home 6 schools close 29th October 2000: Fire Service/ Police: 700 call-outs29th October 2000: Fire Service/ Police: 700 call-outs

Transport 14 Roads closures due to fallen trees Real figure much higher e.g, M5 closed Electricity cables blown onto carriageway 3rd August 2004 Train services delayed/ cancelled Sapperton tunnel collapses after storm knocking out services in Stroud valleys for 8 weeks- 1 st October 2000

Cancellation of public events RAF International Air Tattoo 14 th July 2008 CANCELLED Cheltenham Racing Festival Day th March 2008 Bonfire Night Gloucester Docks 2000 Jousting Berkeley Castle July 2007 CANCELLED CANCELLED CANCELLED

Near misses !!! Pub sign crashes through window of parked car !!! 11 th March 2008 !!! Mini-tornado, Chelt: 30ft pane of glass blown out !!! 9 th November th November 2007 !!! Mini-tornado, Tuffley: hurls roof tiles, debris, smashes windows !!! 12 th December 2006 !!! Tree wrecks summerhouse and garden sheds !!! Cheltenham 2 nd June 2006 !!! Falling tree narrowly misses drivers on A417 !!! 15 th March 2004 !!! Falling tree narrowly misses drivers on A417 !!! 15 th March 2004 !!! Flag Pole peril over Kings Square !!! 15 th November 2003

Adapting to storms Public information Ensure that external fittings (signs etc) and windows are resistant to high wind Emphasise the dangers of driving in high winds/ storms, esp. in F.o.D Stay indoors if possible Tree stability surveys may not be feasible Designing resilience into new developments Ensuring that council properties are resistant (secure roofs, fittings etc.) Ensuring that council properties are resistant (secure roofs, fittings etc.) More support for event organisers Tourism marketing Prepare for the worst Prepare for the worst Ensure emergency plans in place to deal with hurricanes, severe tornadoes Ensure emergency plans in place to deal with hurricanes, severe tornadoes

High Temperatures UKCIP02 Projections UKCIP02 Projections Hotter, drier summers Hotter, drier summers Gloucestershire average temperature to Gloucestershire average temperature to increase by up to 3°C by 2050 and 5°C by 2080 increase by up to 3°C by 2050 and 5°C by : 27 media reports : 27 media reports 9 unique events 9 unique events 16% of reported impacts 16% of reported impacts Benefits shouldnt blind us to the potentially severe negative impacts of prolonged hot spells Benefits shouldnt blind us to the potentially severe negative impacts of prolonged hot spells

Department/ Unit Highways Heat damage to roads Gritting required Threat to infrastructure Roadside maintenance Traffic signals Health and Safety Protecting workers from sunburn/ heat stroke Waste Environment health issues CAC/ CYP School conditions Vulnerable people (home/ day centres) (home/ day centres) Impact of heat waves on GCC Property Services - Ventilation/ air conditioning Transport - Air conditioning Fire and Rescue Increase in fires (Esp. barn fires)

Countywide benefits Were so grape-ful Vineyards enjoy vintage year County is cashing in on visitors Bourton-on-the-Water Model village = Visitor numbers Up 4% = Visitor numbers Up 4% 86 degrees and its going to get much hotter Record visits to swimming pools and water parks 2003 HEAT WAVE (August 4 th -13 th ) Future Opportunities Future Opportunities Agriculture: Inc. growing season - better yields, new crops Tourism: Gloucestershire could benefit from extra summer visitors as Italy, Spain, Greece etc become uncomfortably hot

Negative impacts Increased threat of fire Especially in forest of dean Lives at risk Risk to elderly population Heightened skin cancer risk Heat & Drought Water shortages Threat to crops Threat to animals/ biodiversity Too hot to shop High street trade suffers (Aug1999) Potential link to crime? HEAT WAVES Impact on biodiversity Loss of Beech trees Loss of Beech trees

Adapting to extreme heat Planning: Building design- air conditioning/ ventilation in schools and other council properties Heat wave plans: Lists of vulnerable people, public warnings, sun protection for staff Horizon scanning: High temp, dry conditions, high winds = forest fire threat to Forest of Dean? Exploring opportunities: Agriculture/ tourism/ trade = providing stakeholders with accurate projections Waste: Accelerated rotting of waste in summer - need for seasonal waste collection? e.g weekly in summer, fortnightly in winter

Frost, Ice, Snow : 6 media reports : 6 media reports 4 unique events 4 unique events 5% of reported impacts 5% of reported impacts Threat of extreme cold weather will recede …more likely to catch authorities off guard? Stroud Valleys most vulnerable UKCIP02 Projections UKCIP02 Projections Warmer winters: fewer cold days, snowfall increasingly rare Warmer winters: fewer cold days, snowfall increasingly rare Cold snaps shorter in duration Cold snaps shorter in duration

Highways - Gritting/ snow ploughs - Winter maintenance All Departments Under-staffing if roads badly affected by snow CAC/ CYP - Schools Closures - Fuel poverty Impact of ice/snow on GCC Property Services - Freeze-thaw damage Transport - School transport Department/ Unit

Heavy Snow in Stroud (November 2005) 38 GCC gritters work through the night to clear roads38 GCC gritters work through the night to clear roads 400 abandoned vehicles across road network police use 4x4s to reach stranded motorists400 abandoned vehicles across road network police use 4x4s to reach stranded motorists 12 primary schools close12 primary schools close

Car skids into tree on B4078 Mother and Baby killed (3 rd January 2001) Water Mains Pipe Bursts in freezing conditions- supplies cut to 2000 homes (4th January 2002)

Reduced spend on gritters, winter maintenance Reduced spend on heating council properties Important to retain capacity to respond to unseasonable snowfall- e.g April 2000 Adapting to extreme

Extreme Weather - Key Messages Adaptation at service level Each department to consider more fully the implications of extreme weather and broader climate changes for its operations and objectives This should form and integral element of forward planning and risk management Future proof planning Extreme weather resilience to be given high priority within planning process alongside broader climate change objectives Importance of Local Resilience Forum Regular LA liaison with emergency services and utilities to ensure that energy and water supplies are not threatened by extreme weather events Public information As climate change projections become more detailed key messages should be communicated to business and individuals to better enable them to adapt to extreme weather and climate change in Gloucestershire

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