WRN Workshop NWS Funding Opportunities Fred Toepfer, NWS Modeling Program Lead Christopher Hedge, NOAA/NWS Federal Program Officer November 1, 2017

Currently Funded Projects NWS/STI supports collaborative research with the external/academic community through these programs NGGPS: Next Generation Global Prediction System S2S: Seasonal to Sub-seasonal (Weeks 3-4) forecasting improvements HFIP: Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project CSTAR: Collaborative Science, Technology, and Applied Research Full list of STI grants (http://www.weather.gov/sti/stigrants) and also in the NOAA VLab CSTAR community Total funding in FY17: ~ $5.4M for 35 projects This is an overview of the NWS/STI Programs that support the external/academic research community

Upcoming NWS Funding Opportunities   Upcoming: 2 companion Federal Funding Opportunities (FFO) First FFO is two separate competitions: NGGPS and HFIP NGGPS: Collaborative projects with EMC or CPC researchers, including S2S projects HFIP: Collaborative projects with EMC or NHC researchers Open only to non-federal applications in the academic community (no funding for feds or contractors) Estimated funds available: $2.5M for NGGPS, $1M for HFIP 2-year projects, maximum funding $200K/year LOIs are strongly recommended and due ~December 1, 2017 Full applications due: ~February 7, 2018 Expected project start date: September 1, 2018     This slide is for the schedule/logistics of the 1st FFO: NGGPS and HFIP

NGGPS Priorities Data Assimilation Prediction Ensemble Development Post-processing Verification Weeks 3-4 (S2S) Products These are the priority areas for the NGGPS competition. Data Assimilation: Includes advancements in data assimilation techniques for atmosphere, land surface, ocean and waves including hybrid (3D- or 4D-Var + EnKF) techniques suitable for global and regional models. Priorities include remotely sensed observations, impact studies, eddy-resolving global ocean DA, quality control methods, higher-resolution data sets, etc. Prediction: Advancement in representation of atmospheric model physical processes through coupling with land surface, ocean, waves, sea ice and aerosols. Development of physically-based parameterizations. Ensemble Development: Appropriate, physically-based methods for ensemble initialization and treatment of model uncertainty in ensembles including physically-based stochastic parameterizations, and treatment of the uncertainty in the coupling of the atmosphere to the land, ocean, and cryosphere. Development of ensembles of higher resolution (global ca. 10 km, regional ca. 3km) with realistic ensemble properties is essential for the unification of the production suite and is considered a high priority. Post-Processing: Extending the current development of techniques for post-processing and downscaling model guidance of key variables, extreme events, and the development of methods of post-processing particularly suited to the 15-30 day time range. Verification: Model forecast verification is based on comparisons of forecasts with analyses and observational data sets. Priority efforts will explicitly include the uncertainties of these analyses and observational data sets in model forecast verification methods. Weeks 3 and 4 products: Highlighted on the Next Slide

Weeks 3-4 Priorities This priority area covers sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) research. Specific priorities include: Model development expected to be within the NOAA unified coupled modeling framework Post-processing techniques for ensembles of dynamical models Novel statistical forecast techniques Hybrid dynamical-statistical techniques Interactions of tropical dynamics and land-marine boundary layer processes Focus on improving forecasts of precipitation and temperature over the U.S. including studies that target outlooks of temperature and/or precipitation extremes This slide is for the Weeks 3-4/S2S priorities under the NGGPS Competition

HFIP Priorities Data assimilation Advances in the prediction sub-system Ensemble development Post-processing techniques These are the priority areas for the HFIP competition: 1. Data Assimilation: Advances in data assimilation techniques for hurricane NWP including hybrid (3D- or 4D-Var + EnKF) techniques using in-situ data (e.g., airborne Doppler radar data, Lidar, Stepped-Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR), dropsonde) to supplement next-generation satellite data for accurate three-dimensional description of the tropical cyclone circulation in advanced high-resolution hurricane initialization procedures. 2. Advances in the hurricane and TS prediction subsystem: Reducing hurricane intensity errors and improving the predictions for rapid changes in intensity. Priorities include new/enhanced techniques for (i) high resolution (e.g., scales less than 3 km) model physics focused on microphysical improvements that can more accurately represent moist processes in the hurricane core, land-air-sea-wave-aerosol interactions, and boundary layer processes; (ii) high resolution vortex initialization techniques; and (iii) downstream applications for landfalling storms for improved size, structure, rainfall, surge and inundation forecasts. 3. Ensemble Development: This effort should demonstrate the value of high resolution single model or multi-model ensemble approaches or a combination of both techniques for hurricane forecast guidance. 4. Post-processing Techniques: To increase hurricane forecaster utility of tropical cyclone forecast guidance. This includes techniques for genesis, track, intensity, surface wind structure and estimating forecast uncertainty.

NWS Funding Opportunities NOAA Testbeds   The second FFO will have 1 competition: NOAA Testbeds These are NGGPS modeling projects which have a collaborative partnership with 1 or more NOAA Testbeds Open to federal and non-federal applications Estimated funds available: up to $1M 2-year projects, maximum funding $200K/year LOIs are required and due ~December 1, 2017 Full applications due: ~February 7, 2018 Expected project start date: September 1, 2018     This slide is for the schedule/logistics of the companion TESTBED FFO.

NGGPS-Testbed FFO Priorities This companion FFO includes priorities for testing service impacts of proposed model advances for prediction of high-impact weather over several key time frames for decision support: Forecasting for days 6-10 Evaluate NGGPS guidance in this range with a focus on high-impact events May leverage testing of HMT, ATB, or JHT Forecasts for weeks 3-4 Investigate research gaps to improve forecasts in this time frame Collaborate with the CTB High-Impact weather: days 0-3 Advances in storm-scale, fire weather and convective/severe weather prediction May leverage testing capabilities of HWT or AWT These are the priority areas for the companion TESTBED FFO. This FFO includes priorities for testing service impacts of proposed model advances for prediction of high-impact weather over several key time frames for decision support. HMT (Hydrometeorology TB); ATB (Arctic TB); JHT (Joint Hurricane TB); CTB (Climate TB); HWT (Hazardous Weather TB); AWT (Aviation Weather TB)

CSTAR This program focuses on the needs of the NWS regions and field offices to improve overall forecast and warning capabilities through collaborative research between NWS and academic institutions. Status of current CSTAR Projects: 5 new CSTAR projects selected from FY17 RFP began July 1 2017 7 projects awarded from FY16 RFP; to continue until 2019 5 projects awarded from FY14 RFP are under a no-cost extension until mid-2018 These are 2 to 3 year projects; Maximum $150K/year Next CSTAR funding opportunity expected to be published Fall 2018 This slide is an overview and status of the CSTAR Program

CSTAR Most recent CSTAR priority areas: Improving lead-time and accuracy of forecasts and warnings for high-impact weather and climate events Improving IDSS to integrate physical and social science for better messaging of weather, water, and climate hazards Improving water resource information for decision support and situational awareness These priorities are subject to change; NWS will re-evaluate critical needs before issuing the next funding opportunity in Fall 2018 This slide has the most recent CSTAR priority areas and expected date of next published FFO.

NWS Funding Opportunities POC: Christopher Hedge christopher.hedge@noaa.gov 301-427-9242 Questions?