Religion and fertility in contemporary N Ireland Pat McGregor Pat McKee

The help provided by the staff of the Northern Ireland Longitudinal Study/Northern Ireland Mortality Study (NILS) and the NILS Research Support Unit is acknowledged.  The NILS is funded by the Health and Social Care Research and Development Division of the Public Health Agency (HSC R&D Division) and NISRA.  The NILS-RSU is funded by the ESRC and the Northern Ireland Government. The authors alone are responsible for the interpretation of the data and any views or opinions presented are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of NISRA/NILS.

Data Published data The NILS General Register Office Census Registered births, published quarterly but religion not asked Census Religion asked but the census is only conducted every 10 years The NILS Allows a sample of 28% of the population matched from the above sources. In this study, the sample relates to women aged 15 – 45 in the period 1997-2007. Each observation consists of whether the woman concerned had a birth in the particular year; where detailed economic data were not available, the characteristics of the locality were used. In total, there were over 108,000 women in the panel on which there were almost a million observations.

Religion questions in 2001 Census 8 Do you regard yourself as belonging to any particular religion? Yes Go to 8a No Go to 8b 8a What religion, religious denomination or body do you belong to? Roman Catholic (40.26 %) Presbyterian Church in Ireland (20.69 %) Church of Ireland (15.30 %) Methodist Church in Ireland (03.51 %) Other, please write in

Religion questions in 2001 Census 8 Do you regard yourself as belonging to any particular religion? Yes Go to 8a No Go to 8b 8b What religion, religious denomination or body were you brought up in? Roman Catholic ( 7.99%) Protestant (14.23%) Other, please write in None

Comparing fertility by groups Catholic Protestant Former Catholic Former Protestant

Births between Protestants and Catholics

Births between former Protestants and former Catholics

The average marginal effects of religious identification

Discussion The fertility of a Catholic woman is estimated as being 4% higher than a Protestant one in the period concerned – there is little evidence of convergence

Discussion The fertility of a Catholic woman is estimated as being 4% higher than a Protestant one in the period concerned – there is little evidence of convergence There are several possible explanations for this Dogma – the Catholic religion is pro-natalist whereas the Protestant is more choice based

Fertility rates within Ireland and internationally

Discussion The fertility of a Catholic woman is estimated as being 4% higher than a Protestant one in the period concerned – there is little evidence of convergence There are several possible explanations for this Dogma – the Catholic religion is pro-natalist whereas the Protestant is more choice based Separation – residential separation has been marked and stable in N Ireland for over four decades (Shuttleworth and Lloyd 2009)

Discussion The fertility of a Catholic woman is estimated as being 4% higher than a Protestant one in the period concerned – there is little evidence of convergence The convergence of fertility rates between former Catholics and Protestants would support them being combined as a secular group

Extremely or very religious Discussion The convergence of fertility rates between former Catholics and Protestants would support them being combined as a secular group But the size of this group is small – 13% according to the 2001 Census Religion is still strong – according to the NI Life and Times Survey Year Catholic (%) Protestant (%) Religious conviction 1998 10 13 Extremely or very religious   56 42 Somewhat religious 2008 12 17 60 44