Agenda Item D.1.a Supplemental NMFS Presentation 2 November 2018 Three Year Review of the Lower Columbia River tule fall Chinook Abundance-based Harvest Matrix West Coast Region Jeromy Jording, Sustainable Fisheries Division, Anadromous Harvest Branch

Abundance Based Management (ABM) framework Lower River Hatchery Abundance Total Exploitation Rate Limit 0 – 30,000 0.30 30,000 – 40,000 0.35 40,000 – 85,000 0.38 >85,000 0.41 West Coast Region Slide 2: here is the matrix; 2011 the council proposed that we consider its use for ESA consultation standards for salmon fisheries in 2012 and beyond; opinion adopted the recommendation to review the matrix every three years as a check on projected results and any changes in key presumptions; it’s now 2018, we are initiating the 2nd planned review; we’d like comments which we’ll consider at the Council’s March 2018 meeting prior to finalizing the three year review. U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 2

Still using LRH stock management unit Results Year LRH Abundance Forecast Allowable ER pre-season LRH Actual Return Exploitation Rate Achieved 2012 127,000 0.41 85,000 0.43 2013 88,000 104,800 0.33 2014 110,000 101,900 0.46 2015 94,900 128,700 0.34 2016 133,700 81,500 0.36 2017 92,400 64,600 2018 62,400 0.38 n/a West Coast Region Still using LRH stock management unit Slide 3: we are still forecasting the aggregate lower river hatchery abundance to act as a surrogate for wild salmon; Table 2 captures what this slide shows; Table 3 then depicts this information which is the annual actual return of the LRH stock unit along with the exploitation rates; U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 3

Results Then Now West Coast Region LCR tule Chinook salmon populations Photo by Marilyn & Eric Jordan Slide 4: Tables 5, 6, and 7 attached to the end of the draft report has escapement data for eight additional populationswith natural origin proportions now; This slide depicts what was available to us at the time we evaluated the matrix and what populations are now also being monitored; new escapement information shows no substantive changes in abundance, and we have the ability now to measure hatchery contribution. LCR tule Chinook salmon populations U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 4

Results Most years allowable preseason ER = 41% ERs have stayed under limit 66% of the time West Coast Region ER Slide5: Summary, the last three years preseason abundance forecasts for LRH have been high, consistent with other fall Chinook in the Columbia River, but have recently shown a decline; fisheries therefore were at a 41% exploitation rate limit in all years except 2018; Post season indicates the abundance category was correctly forecast in 4 of the 6 years; post season estimates indicate that exploitation rates have stayed under the preseason limit 4 our 6 years; need more data points to accumulate to allow for a more comprehensive review & to begin evaluating if we can forecast wild fish separately; when possible ERs from FRAM should be compared to independent exploitation rate estimates derived from coded-wire tag groups; Time U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 5

ABM framework adjusted for expected LRH future release strategies LRH Abundance Total Exploitation Rate Limit 0 – 24,000 0.30 24,000 – 31,000 0.35 31,000 – 67,000 0.38 >67,000 0.41 West Coast Region In 2017 NMFS adopted a Record of Decision, The Mitchell Act ROD directs NMFS to apply stronger performance goals to all Mitchell Act-funded, Columbia River Basin hatchery programs Beamesderfer et. al. (2011) estimated annual hatchery releases of lower Columbia River programs averaged 22 million LRH juveniles per year from 1998 through 2008 The use of LRH stock was evaluated down to ~16million for the use in the matrix, we will still be above that at 17.3 with reductions planned, but recommend adjusting the tiers proportionately U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 6

Please send written comments to: Questions? Please send written comments to: Jeromy.Jording@noaa.gov or 510 Desmond Drive SE, Suite 103 Lacey, WA 98503-1263 West Coast Region Q’s and comment location, looking forward to receiving comments on material shown in the draft report and suggestions for other topics that should be considered. U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 7