FY12 Budget and Caseload Update Fiscal Committee February 6, 2012

FY12 Caseload Overview Income Eligible: The Income Eligible account full year forecast is projecting a surplus of $2.5M. Caseload continues to decrease with access closed driving the change in the projections. Voucher access remains closed; savings is offset by Contract/Flex Spending. DTA-Related Caseload: The forecasted surplus has decreased from $3.2M to $700K. The change in the projected surplus is driven by a 3.11% (503) increase in caseload for November 2011. The balance of the year spending projections include a 2 year historical average which anticipates decreases to caseload in May and June. The current forecast assumes the dollar impact for the DTA policy change for parent work hours for 6-8 year olds in the run rate. (The projected full year cost is $4M.) FY11 caseload on average was 16,377 children; EEC expended $133.7M in FY11. Supportive: After processing six months of actual expenditures, a surplus of $1.2M is projected. Caseload forecasted trends are based on a 3 year average historical trend. Last month’s caseload projection anticipated a .8% increase. Caseload increased 1.05% over last month, which reflects a increase in caseload by 59. Ongoing discussions with DCF indicate an effort to fill open slots. This increase may be the result of the discussions. Late Billing: Part of EEC’s monthly projections is to include late billing. Previous months’ actuals are updated each month and future forecasted months incorporate a projection for late billing using historical trends. - Fiscal Year 2012 late billing payments to date is approximately $3.3M. - Fiscal Year 2011 for the same time period (July 2010 thru Dec. 2010) was $6.85M. - The total FY11 late billing accumulated total was $12.2M.  If the late billing trend for FY12 continues, the realized savings will support the projected surplus.

FY12 Caseload Overview Summary As of January 2012

FY12 Caseload Actual/Forecast Overview Dec-11 FY2012 Budget FY2012 Forecast Variance Forecast vs. Budget Income Eligible $ 232,897,940 $ 230,329,195 $ 2,568,745 DTA $ 132,458,313 $ 131,765,133 $ 693,180 Supportive $ 77,448,576 $ 76,230,780 $ 1,217,796 Total $ 442,804,829 $ 438,325,108 $ 4,479,721   Nov-11 $ 231,067,785 $ 1,830,155 $ 129,226,447 $ 3,231,866 $ 76,322,038 $ 1,126,538 $ 436,616,271 $ 6,188,558 Oct-11 $ 233,859,298 $ (961,358) $ 129,037,442 $ 3,420,871 $ 73,650,726 $ 3,797,850 $ 436,547,466 $ 6,257,363 Sep-11 $ 234,391,943 $ (1,494,003) $ 128,437,115 $ 4,021,198 $ 76,442,294 $ 1,006,282 $ 439,271,352 $ 3,533,477 Aug-11 $ 237,850,204 $ (4,952,264) $ 128,192,814 $ 4,265,499 $ 74,324,043 $ 3,124,533 $ 440,367,061 $ 2,437,768 Jul-11 $ 236,467,188 $ (3,569,248) $ 119,693,634 $ 12,764,679 $ 75,252,590 $ 2,195,986 $ 431,413,412 $ 11,391,417

FY 2012 Income Eligible (3000-4060)

Spreadsheet framework location: Data source: Data extract 2011/1/25 Data warehouse report server generates report via EEC Intranet\reports\Board Meeting Reports Use http://eec-dwh-bos-001/ReportServer?%2fData+Warehouse&rs:Command=ListChildren and update spreadsheet below with the current month data Spreadsheet framework location: Sysdevel\Fy2010 Reports Transfer\Board Reports specs\YYYYMMDD IE voucher attrition.xlsx; voucher IE attrition tab Data source: Data extract 1/25/2011 This report tracks unbilled services for non-terminated children based on service month (multiple services may be counted per month per child). Terminated cases are reported separately and are not included in this report (effective FY12 reporting). The report has a two month lag. For example unbilled billing report with the service month of October 2011 represents the number of children EEC has not been billed for since August 2011.

FY12 Voucher Late Billing There are 10,416 billing records ($2.97M)  associated with late billing for the billing months August for July services September for August services October for September services November for October services December for November services There are 1,948 providers who have submitted late billing for FY12 related expenditures. Four hundred and one providers have billed late for more than one funding stream. Of the 10,416 billing records, 7,117 are first time billed. The first time billed indicator captures when a child is billed for the first time relative to their current placement. The billing records total $2.96M in expenses.   The balance (3,299) of the billing records represents a net dollar impact of approximately $7K for cumulative billing adjustments from July. Of the 3,299 billing records that are not related to first time billing, 428 of them are over one month late, 701 are two months late, 949 are three months late, 704 are four months late and 517 are five months late.   Total Funding Source Billing Records Dollars Providers ARRA 70 $29,458 41 DSS 25 $8,071 8 DTA 4,341 $1,415,822 1163 Income Eligible 5,980 $1,518,844 1252 Grand Total 10,416 $2,972,195 2464 Late Billing includes 1) Providers that did not meet the required submission date for prior billing months 2) Providers who have submitted adjustments to prior billing months 3) Providers who may not have billed for specific children for prior billing months

Data source: Data extract 2011/1/25 This report tracks unbilled services for non-terminated children based on service month (multiple services may be counted per month per child). Terminated cases are reported separately and are not included in this report (effective FY12 reporting). The report has a two month lag. For example unbilled billing report with the service month of October 2011 represents the number of children EEC has not been billed for since August 2011.

FY12 Voucher Late Billing The following chart provides a dollar breakdown by funding stream, service date, and billing month. DTA and Income Eligible each make up 48%-51% of the total dollars this month which, when combined, represents 96% to 99% of the total late billing for the billing months this fiscal year. December’s Late Billing totaled $523.7K; ten percent or $50.6 was for service months prior to November 2011.   Billing Month Service Month 8/1/2011 9/1/2011 10/1/2011 11/1/2011 12/1/2011 Grand Total ARRA 7/1/2011 $ 14,023.07 $ 112.10 $ 984.95 $ 15,120.12 $ 9,124.90 $ 3,641.40 $ 700.35 $ 13,466.65 $ 760.43 $ 111.00 $ 871.43 ARRA Total $ 9,237.00 $ 5,386.78 $ 811.35 $ - $ 29,458.20 DSS $ 3,893.40 $ (76.65) $ 3,816.75 $ 359.80 $ 359.80 $ 1,744.80 $ 1,744.80 $ 1,211.05 $ 1,211.05 $ 938.90 $ 938.90 DSS Total $ 2,027.95 $ 8,071.30 DTA $ 187,181.25 $ 11,648.17 $ 5,779.00 $ 2,569.19 $ 1,575.26 $ 208,752.87 $ 395,990.57 $ 42,545.50 $ 8,449.78 $ 1,306.93 $ 448,292.78 $ 328,079.42 $ 25,787.75 $ 1,431.05 $ 355,298.22 $ 148,534.62 $ 16,140.10 $ 164,674.72 $ 238,803.21 $ 238,803.21 DTA Total $ 407,638.74 $ 376,403.92 $ 185,341.34 $ 259,256.55 $1,415,821.80 Income Eligible $ 208,965.85 $ 35,075.36 $ 17,590.23 $ 2,770.05 $ 2,453.75 $ 266,855.24 $ 440,823.15 $ 53,187.90 $ 10,945.68 $ 3,777.75 $ 508,734.48 $ 342,389.18 $ 16,267.99 $ 6,726.96 $ 365,384.13 $ 127,303.59 $ 17,145.01 $ 144,448.60 $ 233,421.58 $ 233,421.58 Income Eligible Total $ 475,898.51 $ 413,167.31 $ 157,287.31 $ 263,525.05 $1,518,844.03 $ 414,063.57 $ 892,774.25 $ 796,985.96 $ 344,651.05 $ 523,720.50 $2,972,195.33

FY12 Contract Late Billing There are 1158 billing records ($341K)  associated with late billing for billing months August for July services September for August services October for September services November for October services December for November services There are 265 Contract providers who have submitted late billing. Of the 1,158 billing records, 488 are first time billed. The first time billed indicator captures when a child  is being billed for the first time relative to their current placement. These billing records make up the 84%, $285.9K in expenses.  The balance of the billing records (670) represent a dollar impact of approximately $54.8K. Of the 670 that are not related to first time billing, 51 of the billing records are one month late, 119 are two months, 190 are three months late, 186 are four months late and 124 are five months late. Of the first time billed records (488), 57 of the billing records are one month late, 112 are two months, 167 are three months late, 83 are four months late and 69 are five months late.   Total Funding Source Billing Records Dollars Providers HOME 46 $14,224 15 IE 847 $226,539 193 SUP 223 $59,407 68 TEEN 42 $40,535 14 Grand Total 1,158 $340,704 290 Late Billing includes 1) Providers that did not meet the required submission date for prior billing months 2) Providers who have submitted adjustments to prior billing months 3) Providers who may not have billed for specific children for prior billing months

FY12 Contract Late Billing The following chart provides a dollar breakdown for contract late billing by funding stream, service date, and billing month. December’s Late Billing totaled $75.7K; forty-one percent or $31.3 was for service months prior to November 2011.   Billing Month Service Month 8/1/2011 9/1/2011 10/1/2011 11/1/2011 12/1/2011 Grand Total HOME 7/1/2011 $ 294.35 $ 1,367.52 $ 1,661.87 $ 830.46 $ 1,497.76 $ 2,328.22 $ 3,696.17 $ 1,370.11 $ 54.12 $ 5,120.40 $ 1,844.98 $ 192.22 $ 2,037.20 $ 3,076.00 HOME Total $ 6,561.45 $ 3,215.09 $ 3,322.34 $ 14,223.69 IE $ 24,488.00 $ 6,288.95 $ 2,572.90 $ 673.05 $ 770.70 $ 34,793.60 $ 32,383.45 $ 8,253.10 $ 691.55 $ 1,437.30 $ 42,765.40 $ 46,613.08 $ 10,821.58 $ 9,346.20 $ 66,780.85 $ 41,321.13 $ 15,781.15 $ 57,102.28 $ 25,096.73 IE Total $ 38,672.40 $ 57,439.08 $ 53,507.30 $ 52,432.08 $ 226,538.86 SUP $ 7,790.23 $ 2,284.20 $ 1,752.65 $ 21.80 $ 11,848.88 $ 14,634.66 $ 4,451.41 $ (230.90) $ 18,855.17 $ 19,859.25 $ (3,202.40) $ (307.24) $ 16,349.61 $ (933.99) $ 1,683.47 $ 749.48 $ 11,603.49 SUP Total $ 16,918.86 $ 26,063.31 $ (4,345.49) $ 12,979.72 $ 59,406.63 TEEN $ 1,394.47 $ 1,336.84 $ 59.57 $ 1,396.41 $ 30,867.16 $ 1,049.92 $ 31,917.08 $ (85.27) $ 1,378.02 $ 1,292.75 $ 4,534.42 TEEN Total $ 30,926.73 $ 6,962.36 $ 40,535.13 $ 33,967.05 $ 57,758.56 $ 120,990.57 $ 52,291.63 $ 75,696.50 $ 340,704.31

FY12 Contract Late Billing The following chart provides the number of Contract Providers by month that submitted their entire billing for the month late (after 20th of the month) System related issues resulting in late billing are not included Providers who have been late more than one month have not been late for more than two months within the Billing months of July through December 2011

FY 2012 DTA Related (3000-4050)

FY 2012 Supportive (3000-3050)

FY2012 Income Eligible Total Caseload Actual/Forecast & Budgeted Expenditures (Amount in Thousands) Blue: Actual/Forecast Expenditures Gray : Appropriation Budget (Spending Plan Projection) Purple: September Board Report (July Actuals/Aug-Jun Forecast) Total Appropriation of $232.9M includes $9,019,276 for Grants December 2011 Voucher Expenditures paid is $7,619,115.

FY2012 DTA Caseload Actual/Forecast & Budgeted Expenditures (Amount in Thousands) Blue: Actual/Forecast Expenditures Gray : Appropriation Budget (Spending Plan Projection) Purple: September Board Report (July Actuals/Aug-Jun Forecast)

FY2012 Supportive Caseload Actual/Forecast & Budgeted Expenditures (Amount in Thousands) Blue: Actual/Forecast Expenditures Gray : Appropriation Budget (Spending Plan Projection) Purple: September Board Report (July Actuals/Aug-Jun Forecast)

FY12 Income Eligible Contract Slots Overview As of January 31, 2012 there are 14,471 awarded slots. Of the total awarded slots there is a net 1,257 open contracted slots. Two hundred and seventy-four slots were filled in January. The total allowable flex is 860 slots; 585.5 slots are filled. The number of flex slots filled decreased by 11. Currently there are 34 providers whose flex slots are over 5% by 437 slots (awarded 84, used 521). Providers under 5% have 711.5 flex slots not filled (awarded 776, used 64.5). EEC currently has 178 contracted vendors; 151 (85%) of them have open contracted slots. There are 490 contracts by program type, 266 (54%) of the contracts have open contracted slots. Note that in the chart below the standard deviation of 59.2282 (Nov 1, 2011) for the Head Start Partner Before & After Program is skewed because one program has 287 awarded slots, but 143 of them are open. Median by Program Type   Standard Deviation by Program Type Jan. 31, 2012 Jan. 3, 2012 Nov. 29, 2011 Nov. 01, 2011 CENTER BASED INFANT 4.0 4 1 6.877 2.0284 1.2067 1.3006 CENTER BASED INFANT/TODDLER 11.0 10.5 14.115 3.9244 3.5178 4.206 CENTER BASED PRE-SCHOOL 23.0 22.25 3 33.795 7.3212 7.1977 9.4735 CENTER BASED SCHOOL-AGE 17.0 18 44.381 4.8954 4.9583 5.9201 CENTER BASED TODDLER 6.0 5.75 0.5 1.75 6.126 2.7866 2.6413 3.5202 CENTER BASED TODDLER/PRE-SCHOOL 5.0 4.5 7.071 1.4142 FAMILY CHILD CARE < 2 8.0 8 6.8 11 13.984 10.6706 10.7463 11.058 FAMILY CHILD CARE > 2 31.5 31 -3 38.805 10.3987 10.7835 2.5171 HEAD START PARTNER B&A 16.5 15.5 42.733 37.1889 37.8882 *59.2282

FY2012 Contract Slots - Regular and Flex Total Awarded Slots is 14471 and Allowable Flex Slots is 860 34 Providers representing 49 contracts are Over 5% Flex (437) **No. of children filling slots may be greater than slots awarded.

Addendum: Caseload Waitlist Since 12/2010 *Waitlist Data as of August 2011 is reported from KinderWait.