// Territorial Reference Framework for Europe ESPON seminar // Transforming territorial thinking through digitalisation // 6-7 December // Tallinn, Estonia

ESPON Territorial Reference Framework Mission Statement: “Facilitating a long-term scenario and visioning process to inform the Territorial Agenda post2020”

ESPON Territorial Reference Framework Consortium: Strategic Advisory Forum: Chaired by: Prof. Jacek Szlachta Co-chaired by Marjorie Jouen 3

ESPON Territorial Reference Framework Main activities (December 2017- June 2019) Participatory process (lead SF) Strategic Advisory Forum (policy-workshops at EPC, Brussels) Consultation events (expert-workshops, venues tbc with ESPON EGTC) Foresight/forecast update (lead MCRIT) Baseline and exploratory scenarios 2030-2050 Assessment: JRC/RHOMULO (2050), MASST3 update and TIA. Policy-analysis (lead EPC) Territorial approach for future European policies Governance process for a new Territorial Agenda post-2020

ESPON Territorial Reference Framework

Baseline and Scenario Analysis -”The future is not what it used to be” 1 Baseline and Scenario Analysis -”The future is not what it used to be”

ESPON Territorial Reference Framework Baseline and Scenario Analysis Financial & Economic Crisis from 2008 Impact the South and East of Europe Political Crisis from 2014 UK / Brexit Ukraine / Scotland / Catalonia Humanitarian Crisis from 2015 Refugees from Middle East Migrants from South Mediterranean

Economic & Financial Crisis 2008 “We, here and now, the people” against “Cosmopolitan and technocratic elites”? “Austerity” measures imposed by EC, ECB & IMF Amazing mea culpa from the IMF’s chief economist “Forecasters significantly underestimated the increase in unemployment and the decline in domestic demand associated with fiscal consolidation”. Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers. Blanchard, Olivier ; Leigh, Daniel January 03, 2013 IMF Paper

Economic & Financial Crisis 2008 Baseline scenario: Regional Economic Growth 2010-2020 (annual average growth) GDP a.a.: 1,89 % 45 regions bellow 1,00 % Annual average GDP rate over the period (2012) Back to Core / Periphery paradigm?

Political Crisis from 2014 English “cities” versus “country” ? Ireland and Scottland versus England? Younger generations versus Older generations? Utopia against Retropia?

Political Crisis from 2014

Political Crisis from 2014

Major of Madrid Major of Barcelona

Humanitarian Crisis from 2015 Refugees : “Our borders” against “their freedom” ?, “We” against “the others”?

Humanitarian Crisis from 2015

Humanitarian Crisis from 2015 Baseline scenario: Demographic Growth 2010-2020 (annual average growth) Stable if no migration: from 514 to 530 inh. And ageing: %>64 years 26% to 39%

ESPON Territorial Reference Framework Neighborhood: Energy networks (solar, oil, gas, HV electricity)

ESPON Territorial Reference Framework Technology versus Human Condition towards 2050. “Humans” againts “Humanoids”?

2 Mid-term policy recomendations: Insights towards a new ”Territorial Agenda” post 2020

ESPON Territorial Reference Framework Building up the new Agenda process from: Territorial Agenda 2020 (2011) Territorial Agenda 2010 (2007) Guiding Principles for Sustainable Spatial Development (2000) European Spatial Development Perspective (1999) European Spatial Planning Chart (1983) To be developed by the Informal Council of Ministers responsible for Spatial Planning

ESPON Territorial Reference Framework Collection of Territorial Visions at National and Transnational Scale

2020

2030

2050

ESPON Territorial Reference Framework Territorial priorities : « Inclusive, Smart and Sustainable Europe od Diverse Regions » (Agenda 2020)? Promote polycentric and balanced territorial development Encouraging integrated development in cities, rural and specific regions Territorial integration in cross-border and transnational functional regions Ensuring global competitiveness of the regions based on strong local economies Improving territorial connectivity for individuals, communities and enterprises Managing and connecting ecological, landscape and cultural values of regions

ESPON Territorial Reference Framework Territorial Priorities: « Making Europe Open and Polycentric » (ESPON ET2050) Connecting Europe globally Co-development with Neighbouring regions Promoting more endogeneous development Balancing urban structures –increasing polycentrism Sustainable use of resources

ESPON Territorial Reference Framework What should be the key elements of the territorial approach in future European policies? Just-in-time / Sectorial /Top-down EU Policies Place-based / Integrated / Bottom-up Urban and Regional Policies

ESPON Territorial Reference Framework What should be the key elements of the territorial approach in future policies? Planning and implementing integrated European investment programs in functional and cross-border areas? Providing support to local/ regional development strategies (institutional capacity and investment)? Introducing territorial cooperation in the framework of mainstream European programs?

ESPON Territorial Reference Framework Strategic Forum: Chaired by: Prof. Jacek Szlachta: Co-chaired by Marjorie Jouen 30

// Thank you Andreu Ulied, www. mcrit // Thank you Andreu Ulied, www.mcrit.com MCRIT / Multicriteri@ (Barcelona) This presentation will be made available at: www.espon.eu/tallinn2017