El Niño-Southern Oscillation

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Presentation transcript:

El Niño-Southern Oscillation

Oceanic Temperatures as a Function of ENSO Warm west, cold east Warm everywhere, but particularly in the central Pacific Warming erodes everywhere in response to upwelling (Figure obtained from Ch. 4 of An Introduction to Tropical Meteorology, 2nd Edition. © 2016, COMET.)

Oceanic Temperatures as a Function of ENSO (Figure obtained from Ch. 4 of An Introduction to Tropical Meteorology, 2nd Edition. © 2016, COMET.)

Oceanic Temperatures as a Function of ENSO (Figure obtained from Ch. 4 of An Introduction to Tropical Meteorology, 2nd Edition. © 2016, COMET.)

Oceanic Temperatures as a Function of ENSO (Figure obtained from Ch. 4 of An Introduction to Tropical Meteorology, 2nd Edition. © 2016, COMET.)

Southern Oscillation Index pdiff = p(Tahiti) – p(Darwin) (Figure obtained from Ch. 4 of An Introduction to Tropical Meteorology, 2nd Edition. © 2016, COMET.)

Southern Oscillation Index El Nino: Warmer at Tahiti -> Lower SLP -> Negative SOI La Nina: Cooler at Tahiti -> Higher SLP -> Positive SOI (Figure obtained from Ch. 4 of An Introduction to Tropical Meteorology, 2nd Edition. © 2016, COMET.)

ENSO Monitoring Regions (Figure obtained from Ch. 4 of An Introduction to Tropical Meteorology, 2nd Edition. © 2016, COMET.)

Oceanic Niño Index (Figure obtained from http://www.nwfsc.noaa.gov/research/divisions/fe/estuarine/oeip/cb-mei.cfm)

Walker Circulation During La Niña Events Enhanced cooling drives enhanced descent Enhanced heating drives enhanced ascent (Figure obtained from Ch. 4 of An Introduction to Tropical Meteorology, 2nd Edition. © 2016, COMET.)

Walker Circulation During El Niño Events Weakened cooling drives substantially weakened descent Enhanced heating drives enhanced ascent (Figure obtained from Ch. 4 of An Introduction to Tropical Meteorology, 2nd Edition. © 2016, COMET.)

El Niño and the Australian Monsoon (Figure obtained from Ch. 3 of An Introduction to Tropical Meteorology, 2nd Edition. © 2016, COMET.)

El Niño and W. Hemisphere Hurricanes (Figure obtained from Ch. 4 of An Introduction to Tropical Meteorology, 2nd Edition. © 2016, COMET.)

NH Winter Impacts of El Niño (Figure obtained from Ch. 4 of An Introduction to Tropical Meteorology, 2nd Edition. © 2016, COMET.)

NH Summer Impacts of El Niño (Figure obtained from Ch. 4 of An Introduction to Tropical Meteorology, 2nd Edition. © 2016, COMET.)

NH Winter Impacts of La Niña (Figure obtained from Ch. 4 of An Introduction to Tropical Meteorology, 2nd Edition. © 2016, COMET.)

NH Summer Impacts of La Niña (Figure obtained from Ch. 4 of An Introduction to Tropical Meteorology, 2nd Edition. © 2016, COMET.)

Northern Hemispheric Pattern Modulation by ENSO (Figure obtained from Ch. 4 of An Introduction to Tropical Meteorology, 2nd Edition. © 2016, COMET.)

Delayed Oscillator Theory (Figure obtained from Ch. 4 of An Introduction to Tropical Meteorology, 2nd Edition. © 2016, COMET.)

Delayed Oscillator Theory (Figure obtained from Ch. 4 of An Introduction to Tropical Meteorology, 2nd Edition. © 2016, COMET.)

Dynamical Model Forecasts of ENSO (Figure obtained from Ch. 4 of An Introduction to Tropical Meteorology, 2nd Edition. © 2016, COMET.)

Statistical Model Forecasts of ENSO (Figure obtained from Ch. 4 of An Introduction to Tropical Meteorology, 2nd Edition. © 2016, COMET.)

Forecasting La Niña’s Demise? (Figure obtained from http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/)