Project Appraisal Guidelines for National Roads

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Presentation transcript:

Project Appraisal Guidelines for National Roads TII Roadshow 2017 Project Appraisal Guidelines for National Roads Eoin Gillard Head of Strategic & Transport Planning Transport Infrastructure Ireland Transport Planning Society 22nd November 2017

Introduction

Strategic & Transport Planning Section What we do Strategic & Transport Planning Section Project Appraisal Guidance Audit of National Roads Projects Appraisal of Light Rail projects National Transport Model

TII Project Appraisal Guidelines for National Roads Objective: To ensure consistent appraisal of all TII projects and compliance with DTTAS and DPER requirements What is PAG? ‘How to’ guidelines Detailed guidance on: Transport modelling Economic appraisal MCA Standard parameters for model inputs

TII Project Appraisal Guidelines for National Roads

Structure of PAG Unit Topics discussed Detailed Info 1.0 Introduction 2.0 Appraisal Deliverables Project Appraisal Plan 3.0 Project Brief PB Template 4.0 Consideration of Alternatives 5.0 Transport Modelling Construction of Models Data Collection Forecasting Sample TM Report 6.0 CBA Scheme Costs TUBA & COBALT Sample CBA Service Areas Wider Impacts Reliability & Quality National Parameter Values 7.0 Multi-Criteria Analysis MCA Guidance PABS Template 8.0 Business Case BC Template & Sample 9.0 Post Project Review 12.0 Minor Projects (€5m-€20m) Simple Appraisal Tool 13.0 Walking & Cycling Facilities 14.0 Minor Projects(€0.5m-€5m) Minor Project PABS Template 16.0 Data Analysis Techniques Estimating AADT Expansion Factors for Short Period Counts

Minor Projects (€5m - €20m)

Structure of PAG Unit Topics discussed Detailed Info 1.0 Introduction 2.0 Appraisal Deliverables Project Appraisal Plan 3.0 Project Brief PB Template 4.0 Consideration of Alternatives 5.0 Transport Modelling Construction of Models Data Collection Forecasting Sample TM Report 6.0 CBA Scheme Costs TUBA & COBALT Sample CBA Service Areas Wider Impacts Reliability & Quality National Parameter Values 7.0 Multi-Criteria Analysis MCA Guidance PABS Template 8.0 Business Case BC Template & Sample 9.0 Post Project Review 12.0 Minor Projects (€5m-€20m) Simple Appraisal Tool 13.0 Walking & Cycling Facilities 14.0 Minor Projects(€0.5m-€5m) Minor Project PABS Template 16.0 Data Analysis Techniques Estimating AADT Expansion Factors for Short Period Counts

Minor Projects (€0.5m - €5m) – Unit 14.0

Common Issues

Common Issues in Appraisals / Business Cases Problem Definition Objective Setting Options and Alternatives Multi-criteria analysis Lack of consideration outside of Economic Evaluation

Challenges

Value of Time Dominates Average Breakdown of Road Scheme Benefits Time Savings are key High volume routes => More Benefits Potential Issues for scheme selection AADT Time Saving per user (hrs) Total Time saving (hrs/day) VoT Total Benefit (€/day) Annual Benefit (€) M50 160,000 0.0167 2667 € 11.86 € 31,626.67 € 11,543,733.33 M4 27000 450 € 5,337.00 € 1,948,005.00 N5 5,600 93 € 1,106.93 € 404,030.67

Discount Rates – International Comparison What is the value of €1M in 30 years? Country Discount Rate Value World Bank 12.0% €37,383 New Zealand 8.0% €107,328 Australia 7.0% €140,563 USA Ireland 5.0% €242,946 Sweden 3.5% €368,748 UK Germany 3.0% €424,346 Netherlands 2.5% €488,661

Discount Rates – Alternative for Road Schemes? TII research on the use of hyperbolic discounting as transport projects have a longer lifecycle M4/M6 Worked Example Exponential 30 years Exponential 60 years Hyperbolic 60 years Combined 60 years PV Benefits 1,357 2,846 2,959 3,576 PV of Capital Costs 1,490 NPV -133 1,356 1,469 2,086 BCR 0.91 1.91 1.99 2.40

Future Considerations How to justify low volume road schemes in complex environments Appraisal of technology in transport – is VoT the answer? Cross cutting effects – transport influenced by or enabling other policies Is transport appraisal a victim of its own success?

Thank You