Forecasting and Applications in Hydrology Inf 2.3 Forecasting and Applications in Hydrology Paul Pilon Chief Hydrological Forecasting and Water Resources Division

Overview Flood Forecasting Initiative (FFI) Flash Flood Guidance System (FFGS) Coastal Inundation Forecasting Demonstration Project (CIFDP) Associated Programme on Flood Management (APFM) Links to Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR)

WMO Flood Forecasting Initiative (FFI) Resolution 21 (Cg-XV) endorsed the WMO Flood Forecasting Initiative enhance cooperation between National Meteorological and Hydrological Services for improving flood forecasting. Resolution 15 (Cg-XVI) Scope of the FFI Created its Advisory Group (FFI-AG) Has met twice

Flood Forecasting Initiative – Advisory Group Undertook comprehensive review of the FFI Strategy and Action Plan and its Supplement need to strengthen the focus on forecasting, short to medium range Viewed SAP as being overwhelming and confusing Agreed on 6 proposed actions Develop a generic list of requirements/best practices of flood forecasting taking into account high priority actions; Develop flood forecasting system capabilities; Use the IFM HelpDesk to promote the implementation strategy Develop a new implementation strategy based on projects, training programmes, promotion…

Flash Flood Guidance System (FFGS) CG-XV endorsed its implementation Concept developed jointly with CBS In collaboration with US NWS, USAID/OFDA, HRC 9 FFGS Projects having different levels of completion Recent meeting in South America, with interest to implement it therein Growing interest to increase its functionality

FFGS – New Functionality (Continued) The enhancement outlined include: Urban flash flood forecasting; Riverine discharge forecasting; Landslide susceptibility mapping; Multiple mesoscale model ingestion; Satellite inundation mapping and surface soil moisture observations to correct FFFGS soil water.

Coastal Inundation Forecasting Demonstration Project (CIFDP) Joint activity with JCOMM Multi-hazard early warning system for coastal areas Four sub-projects underway Bangladesh, Dominican Republic, Fiji and Indonesia EC-68 tasked the FFI-AG to ensure that all major demonstration projects (including CIFDP) reflect best practices for effective and sustainable flood forecasting Mr Yuri Simonov, member of the Advisory Working Group, has been appointed co-chair of the Project Steering Committee (PSC) that oversees the CIFDP Mr  Graeme Smart, OPACHE member, has also been appointed to the PSC

WMO/GWP Associated Programme on Flood Management (APFM) Continued the development of several publications Several training events Very active HelpDesk Considered an exemplory model GWP seconded expert for APFM and IDMP Independent Peer Review of APFM

APFM Peer Review Directed by the APFM Management Committee (MC) large focus on assessing performance and building a sustainable future 17 major findings “The APFM was the best kept secret” Regardless of Website, training, advocacy Underutilized for reducing flood losses MC adopted an approach that would advance the implementation of End-to-End Early Warning Systems for Flood Forecasting and broader water management through the IFM HelpDesk linked to the Community of Practice on EWS for Flood Forecasting that will be presented upon and discussed tomorrow Consistent with the guidance of the FFI-AG

Links to Disaster Risk Reduction Expert Forum “Lessons Learned about Lessons Learned” Adoption of the Antalya Statement, with 6 calls-to-action “Early Warning Systems (EWSs) developers and operators are called to pay more attention to the systems’ weaker links”. As part of the WMO Roadmap for DRR Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems (MHEWSs) Promoting the International Network for MHEWSs (IN-MHEWS) Supporting the International Conference on MHEWSs (IC-MHEWS)), from 22-23 May 2017, in Cancun, Mexico.

DRR Resolution 9 (CG-17) Develop identifiers for cataloguing weather, water, and climate extreme events Promote interoperability among datasets and facilitate Members’ efforts to assess risk and track losses and damages Useful for for the Atlas of Mortality and Economic Losses

Thank you Merci