Climate Research in Malta An Overview of Activities Dr. Noel Aquilina, Mr. James Ciarlo`, Mr. Norbert Bonnici Department of Physics Erin Serracino Inglott Hall, 4th November 2010

Overview Recent Work Timeline MedCLIVAR Workshop The Models Current Projects Capacity Building 1st Climate Summer School Models’ Performance MCT plans

Timeline 2007 2009 2008 2010 MedCLIVAR Workshop 1 PRECIS 1.8.2 update RegCM4 Workshop 2 undergraduate; 1 MSc student 2007 PRECIS 1.7.1 installation & testing PRECIS Sulfate Research WRF installation 2009 2008 2010 MedCLIVAR Workshop 2 2007 Acquisition of PRECIS license by Prof. Sammut 2008 August: Dr. Aquilina attends PRECIS Workshop (training on PRECIS) September: Student installed PRECIS on a single workstation Dr. Aquilina attends an ESF-MedCLIVAR Summer School and Workshop October: Testing of PRECIS 2009 April: PRECIS 1.7.1 fully operational 3 Undergraduate Dissertations 2010 February: Installation of PRECIS 1.8.2 & RegCM3 on second workstation June: Dr. Aquilina attends RegCM4 Workshop Installation & testing of PRECIS 1.9.1 on cluster Update to PRECIS 1.9.1 on the 2 workstations July: First Climate Summer School Start of Further Studies on Chemistry of PRECIS model Foundation of MCT PRECIS operational on cluster (2 separate nodes) RegCM4 & WRF installation on cluster NCL operational on all computing facilities Mr. Ciarlo` and Dr. Aquilina attend ESF- MedCLIVAR Workshop WRF operational on cluster Start of 2 Undergraduate 1 Masters Dissertation November: PRECIS, WRF fine, RegCM4 in testing phase RegCM4 testing PRECIS Workshop MCT PRECIS 1.7.1 operational; 3 undergraduate students PRECIS 1.9.1 update 1st Climate Summer School PRECIS license

Introduction to the Models

PRECIS Providing REgional Climates for Impacts Studies PRECIS has been developed and disseminated with funding from the: UK Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA), UK Department for International Development (DFID), UK Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO) United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), and the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) PRECIS is based on the Hadley Centre's regional climate modelling system. To help generate high-resolution climate change information for many regions. The intention is to make PRECIS freely available to groups of developing countries. These scenarios can be used in impact, vulnerability and adaptation studies. mention GCM v RCM Developed by UK Met Office For developing countries in order that they may develop climate change scenarios. Scenarios are needed for the National Communications

PRECIS mention GCM v RCM Providing REgional Climate Impact Studies Developed by UK Met Office 25km and 12.5km (still not released) resolution Runs on up to 16 threads (OpenMP) Current version: 1.9.2

PRECIS mention that a climate model, in order to give us detailed information needs to be able to process all the complex processes Air/Land/ GCM v RCM

RegCM4 PRECIS RegCM4 License-based Community-based MOSES 1 & 2.2 LSMs Different Schemes Planetary Boundary Layer Radiation Precipitation Chemistry model (Sulfate) RegCM4 Community-based BATS & CLM LSMs Different Schemes Planetary Boundary Layer Radiation Precipitation Chemistry model (Dust, Sulfate, Organic Carbon, Black Carbon) Clouds Ocean Flux Pressure Gradient Force Lake model Project started by Dickinson et al in 1989 at NCAR Built on MM4 (Mesoscale Model version 4) Regional Climate Model Currently being developed by ICTP (the Abdus Salam - International Centre for Theoretical Physics 60km till 10km resolution Runs on OpenMPI (on albert 108 processes max) Current version: 4.0

Malta in Climate Models RegCM4 Malta in Climate Models Project started by Dickinson et al in 1989 at NCAR Built on MM4 (Mesoscale Model version 4) Regional Climate Model Currently being developed by ICTP (the Abdus Salam - International Centre for Theoretical Physics 60km till 10km resolution Runs on OpenMPI (on albert 108 processes max) Current version: 4.0

WRF Numerical Weather Prediction Model called Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Is a next-generation mesoscale model designed to serve both operational forecasting and atmospheric research needs. It features multiple dynamical cores, a 3-D variational (3DVAR) data assimilation system. A software architecture allowing for computational parallelism and system extensibility. WRF is suitable for a broad spectrum of applications across scales going down to 1 km. Has an easy to use GUI and excellent for training in meteorology. Project started in 1998 Weather Research and Forecasting Numerical Weather Prediction Model Developed by NCAR 10km till 1km resolution Runs with OpenMPI and CUDA Current version: 3.2.1

WRF Project started in 1998 Weather Research and Forecasting Numerical Weather Prediction Model Developed by NCAR 10km till 1km resolution Runs with OpenMPI and CUDA Current version: 3.2.1

[Source: National Observatory of Athens] WRF Operational use of WRF [Source: National Observatory of Athens]

WRF Collaborative research BSc (Hons) 3rd year projects University of Aveiro & University of Lisbon BSc (Hons) 3rd year projects Examples: Dynamics of Hurricane Katrina 2005 Temperature extremes in the Mediterranean Attraction between Cities and Cyclones

Capacity Building 768 Proc. 2 Proc. 4 Proc. Workstations ALBERT PRECIS on 2 nodes (Limited to 12 Proc. per simulation) RegCM4 (runs on MPI) WRF installed & in testing 4 Proc.

Models’ Performance Considering a 30 year simulation, Europe, 50 km: 100x100 cells PRECIS Computer 4 (2P): ~39 days Computer 2 (4P): ~16 days Computer Cluster (12P): ~11 days RegCM4 Computer Cluster: ~8 days WRF: in testing phase

Recent Work PRECIS Undergraduate Projects 2009/10 Current Research Validation of the model in the Mediterranean (and surrounding) region from different perspectives. Vertical Levels (Nadine Napoli) Climate Zones (Denise M. Cilia) Sulfate Aerosols (James Ciarlo`) Current Research Evaluation of the Chemistry model (Noel Aquilina, James Ciarlo`) Undergraduate Projects 2010/11 Study of the ENSO around Australia (Candy Spiteri) Comparative study of PRECIS’s LSMs (William Healey)

Undergraduate Projects 2009/10 Scope: Working on the same lines as MedCLIVAR (the Mediterranean CLImate VARiability project) that coordinates and promotes the study of the Mediterranean climate Why the Mediterranean Basin? Enclosed by 3 major continents. Surrounded almost entirely by mountains. Very unique and sensitive to climate changes. Simulation details GCM-HadAM3P PRECIS (v 1.7.1) used 1960-1990 Resolution: 0.44° x 0.44° (50 km) 100 x 100 cells 57°N-18°N 16°W-46°E

Solar Radiation at Surface Level PRECIS: Validation Validation of the PRECIS Regional Climate Model Comparison of Measured and Modelled data ESRL Solar Radiation at Surface Level 1960-1990 Average PRECIS

PRECIS: Validation Validation of the PRECIS Regional Climate Model Comparison of Measured and Modelled data

PRECIS: Vertical Layers Parameter variation at 5 vertical levels in the atmosphere against Radiosonde data Source: (Napoli N. Dissertation 2010)

PRECIS: Climate Zones Evaluation of temperature and precipitation within different climate zones Temperature Total Precipitation Rate PRECIS 1960-1990 Average MONITORING STATIONS Source: (Cilia D.M. Dissertation 2010)

Future Projections Temperature IS INCREASING Source: (Cilia D.M. Dissertation 2010)

Future Projections Total Precipitation Rate IS DECREASING Is this natural variability or climate change? – MORE RESEARCH Source: (Cilia D.M. Dissertation 2010)

PRECIS: Sulfate Aerosol Analysis of the climate impacts caused by Sulfate Aerosols in the Atmosphere 1960-1990 Average Source: (Ciarlo` J. Dissertation 2010)

PRECIS: Sulfate Aerosol Analysis of the climate impacts caused by Sulfate Aerosol in the Atmosphere Parameter Max Bias Mean Bias Min Bias Surface Temperature 1.59 0.82 0.05 Solar Radiation -6.99 -10.45 -15.63 Thermal Radiation 3.77 1.01 -1.37 Daily Temperature Range -0.32 -1.98 -3.52 Convective Precipitation -1.48 -3.08 -5.80 Relative Humidity -3.01 -5.46 -8.38 1960-1990 Average Source: (Ciarlo` J. Dissertation 2010)

ESF-MedCLIVAR Workshop 23rd-25th September 2010 ICTP, Trieste Workshop on: Scenarios of Mediterranean Climate Change under Increased Radiative Active Gas Concentration and the Role of Aerosols.

PRECIS: Current Research Aquilina N.J., Ciarlo` J.M. (2010). “Validation of PRECIS: Effect of sulfate aerosols in the atmosphere”. In preparation for submission in Climatic Change.

Undergraduate Projects 2010/11 Scope: Established & strengthening ties with CSIRO (Australian Commonwealth Scientific and Research Organization) and comparing results with their model, CCAM (Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model) Why Australia? Large variety of different climates Complex island system in the ITCZ Simulation details: GCM-HadAM3Q0/ECHAM5 PRECIS (v 1.9.1) used 1960-1990/ 1990-2020 Resolution: 0.44° x 0.44° (50 km) 174 x 150 cells 22°N-49°S 83°E-166°E

LSM Project PRECIS 1.7.1 MOSES I PRECIS 1.9.1 MOSES 2.2 1960-1990 Sulfate Aitken mode

ENSO Project

Example: North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) MSc using RegCM4 Study of interaction between Oscillation Patterns around Europe and their influence on aerosol transportation. Example: North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) NAO- NAO+

Example: North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)

Example: North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)

1st Climate Summer School 8 Students attended Day 1: Introduction to Meteorology I Day 2: Introduction to Meteorology II Day 3: Data Mining; Post Processing Software installation Day 4: Using Panoply data viewer; Introduction to PRECIS Day 5: The PRECIS outputs Day 6: Introduction to NCL 2nd Climate Summer School New Models (RegCM4, WRF) Handle PP Software (NCL, IDV) Mini-Project

Immediate Plans Gain more experience Climate Research, Different Models, Climate Statistics Encourage more people to work in the MCT Physicists, Chemists, Mathematicians, Programmers, and Statisticians. There is a lot of data available to be analysed – summer research experiences are available Prepare interested students through new study-units.

New Study-Units Fundamentals of Meteorology Study Aims Scientific understanding of meteorology Physics of weather systems Distinguishing and identifying weather systems from climate data Applying meteorology to climate research A Multidisciplinary approach to Climate Research Study Aims Scientific understanding of climate Operating climate models Post-processing Using appropriate Statistical methods Hands-on experience to climate research Hopefully to be offered from academic year 2011/12

Long-Term Plans Collaborative and MSc / PhD / post-doc research Development of part of the chemical model with ICTP Needed: Physicists, Chemists, Mathematicians, Statisticians, Programmers Associated projects Studying long range transport of pollutants Evaluate different schemes Apply different statistical treatments to climate data Testing out new code

International Collaborations Sponsored by: International Council for Science (ICSU) World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) of UNESCO The two overarching objectives of the WCRP are to determine: the predictability of climate the effect of human activities on climate These underpin & directly address the needs of the UNFCCC.  A multi-disciplinary approach: Organizes large-scale observational and modelling projects Facilitates focus on aspects of climate too large and complex to be addressed by any one nation or single scientific discipline The 2005-2015 WCRP strategy will promote the creation of comprehensive and reliable global climate observations and models Integrating new observations, research facilities and scientific breakthroughs is essential The 2005-2015 strategy is for the dual purpose of describing the structure and variability of the climate system

CORDEX COordinated Regional climate Downscaling EXperiment CORDEX is intended to organize an international coordinated framework. To produce an improved generation of regional climate change projections world-wide To use results for input into impact and adaptation studies within the AR5 timeline and beyond MED-CORDEX will make use of both regional atmospheric climate models and regional coupled systems. Developing new experiments to test new components and improved schemes, based on the HyMeX (Hydrological cycle in the Mediterranean Experiment) field campaign outcomes (long term simulations) CORDEX WRF-Community: This would give an opportunity to produce multi-physics experiments, as opposite (an in addition) to the multi-model experiments. Why MedCORDEX - Strong air-sea interactions take place in the Mediterranean basin, motivating the use of coupled regional models. Since WRF is a public domain model with a wide community of users it is expected that some other groups will also contribute to CORDEX using WRF. This will require a coordinated WRF-community action in order to avoid overlapping simulations (parameterizations schemes, etc.).

CORDEX

The MCT on the Web UoM-Physics Webpage: Facebook: http://www.um.edu.mt/science/physics/climate_studies Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/group.php?gid=155998907759229

Acknowledgements Nick Archer Charles V Sammut Louis Zammit Mangion Pierre-Sandre Farrugia Denis Cutajar Adam Gauci Alessio Magro Shawn Cassar http://um.edu.mt/science/physics Simon Tucker Chloe Morrell David Hein David Hassell http://precis.metoffice.com/ Marcus Thatcher Jack Katzfey John McGregor http://cmar.csiro.au Graziano Giuliani Stefano Cozzini http://portal.ictp.it/esp/research/esp-models/regcm3 Mary Hailey Dennis Shea http://ncar.ucar.edu/

Thank You MALTA CLIMATE TEAM W: http://www.um.edu.mt/science/physics/research/climate_studies E: climate-physics.sci@um.edu.mt T: +356 2340 3036