A problem well stated is a problem half solved. Charles F. Kettering PAF 101 Module 3, Lecture 1 A problem well stated is a problem half solved. Charles F. Kettering

Class Agenda Announcements Overview of Module 3 Paper (due 10/24) Announce Trend Line Homework (due 10/14)

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Fireside Chat- Featuring Steven

Competition Points Winners Losers Group # Points 2 16 8 15 9 14 13 5 17 12 18 3 11 7 10 20 4 19 6 1 Winners Losers As of 10/5/16

Google Alerts https://www.google.com/alerts Use Google Alerts to stay informed about your societal problem.

What should I do with my graded module? KEEP IT You can use the same policies/players in later modules ALSO, if you wish to be a TA next semester, you MUST keep your modules. 1. Explain in detail how keeping modules can be useful

What should I do with the Maxwell Manual for 101? KEEP IT If you plan to be a Policy Studies major If you want to be a TA If you are a winner Sell it if you are a loser

A B C Basic Diagram Module 5 Module 4 Players Societal Problems Public Diagram Confusing Societal Problems Public Policy C Chapter 5 Module 4 Chapter 6

Choosing Specific Societal Problem Must be a measurable societal condition Must be at a local area [county, town, city] *not federal, not state* Try to connect it to your community service or previous experience or contact A policy you don’t like is not a societal problem (e.g. Too many gun-related deaths vs. Weak gun laws) Give an example of a bad and good societal problem

OVERVIEW OF 5.1-5.3 Take out your printout and turn to Exercise 5.1 to follow along as I give an overview of 5.1-5.3

Problem Solving Framework Describe the Societal Problem (Ex. 5.1) Research Your Societal Problem (Ex. 5.2) Evidence of the Problem (Ex. 5.3) Causes of the Problem (Ex. 5.4) Current Public Policy (Ex. 5.5) Role of Interest Groups (Ex. 5.6) Identify a Policy & Policy Tool Alternatives (Ex. 6.3) Select Policy Tool Alternatives on Basis of Effectiveness and Feasibility (Ex. 6.3) Module 4: Examines Effectiveness Module 5: Examines Political Feasibility

Spine of the Module Three Paper 5.1a Define the societal problem 5.3 Evidence (Worth 30 points) A trend line graph (Minimum of 3 data points, 1 must be real) A quote from a player, stakeholder, or expert you interviewed A quote from a published, printed, or electronic source 6.3 Policy to deal with the problem Give real world example here.

Finding a Variable-The First Key You must have data to measure your societal problem. Don’t confuse it with policies. Here are some examples. State the societal problem.

Onondaga Community Indicators: Crime Does anyone know the societal problem? “There is too much violent crime in Onondaga County”

Onondaga Community Indicators: Economy

Onondaga Community Indicators: People While median family incomes have remained relatively stable from 2002 to 2009, median home values have been steadily increasing meaning that families in Onondaga County are devoting a greater portion of their income to home purchases.

Onondaga Community Indicators: Environment

Onondaga Community Indicators: Child Abuse

Onondaga Community Indicators: Health

Avoid Mod. 3 Paper Confusion CONFUSION OVER: Effects of the Problem (5.1b) Evidence of the Problem (5.3) Causes of the Problem (5.4) Effectiveness vs. Feasibility (6.3c)

EVIDENCE VS. CAUSES Good example of a cause: “Students are dropping out because the high school curriculum sucks.” Bad example of a cause: “The graduation rate in the academic year of 2011 to 2012 was 45%.” Why is this a bad example of a cause? Where does it belong in Ch. 5 exercises?

EVIDENCE vs. CAUSES Cont. EVIDENCE: Confirms the existence and the extent of the societal problem When presenting evidence include at least one of the following: Statistics showing change over time and/or comparing different localities/groups Expert opinions Examples/Case Studies CAUSES: The reasons for the societal problem (DO NOT confuse causes with effects)

A Word About Causes We use the term all the time But, causes can never be proven, EVER Correlation does not mean causation but hints at it. Smoking Lung Cancer E.g. the high school graduation rate is low because school funding is too low

Why Cause Is Used Instead of Correlation! The reason people and politicians and journalists confuse causes with correlation is because they are (fill in the blank).

Spurious Correlations

Other Examples of Spurious Correlations

Use Experts and Players Use the Web Research Link Use published material Give very specific examples for each of the general topics. Poverty should be housing Crime should be specifically measured No educational equality Have web site available

Trend Line Homework Open the Trend line homework assignment at this URL: https://paf101.expressions.syr.edu/module-3/ Due Friday, 10/14 Use video embedded on PAF 101 website under Module 3 tab to help you https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RYYZoFSDuk M

Common Trend Line Graph Mistakes DON’T include gridlines DON’T include a legend DO label the title and both axes DO include a source DO bold the title Put numbers on data points Start at zero on Y-axis If using an Education policy, use academic years (ex. 2008-2009, 2009-2010)

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For Next Class Work on Player and Expert Contacts Continue work on 5.1-5.3 Changing seats next class Trend Line Homework due 10/14 at the beginning of that class Prospective Community Service Email to your TA also due 10/14 by 9pm