SPRING 2013 and SUMMER 2013 CONUS

WHAT HAS THE WINTER BEEN LIKE? CLOSE TO NORMAL TEMPS

% ABOVE NORMAL OVER ALL OF THE MIDWEST… % OVER PLAINS.. Mainly eastern Plains NORTH of TX

LAST 30 DAYS 2 BIG WINTER STORMS OVER LOWER & CENTRAL PLAINS & WCB HAVE BROUGHT LARGE AREAS OF % ABOVE NORMAL LAST 30 DAYS 2 BIG WINTER STORMS OVER LOWER & CENTRAL PLAINS & WCB HAVE BROUGHT LARGE AREAS OF % ABOVE NORMAL MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION

IS SEASONAL FORECASTING JUST GLORIFIED GUESSING? In the OLD days ( 1960s..1970s..1980s) that was pretty much the case. Professional Meteorologists were using MOON PHASES to make seasonal forecast (Harris Mann). Since the Mid 1990s a lot of progress has been made at 30 day forecasts and out to 120 days. 1.Much Improved Climate Models 2.Better understanding of Atmospheric patterns 3.Better understanding impact of Sea Surface temps 4.ANALOG methods WHAT HAS CHANGED ?

SEA SURFACE TEMPS Research shows that large areas of COLD and WARM SSTAs (Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies) that stay in one general location can and DO affect weather patterns EL NINO LA NINA LA NADA PDO AMO? ENSO

ENSO REGIONS ENSO REGION 3.4 IS THE BIG ONE… WARM SSTAs in 3.4= EL NINO… COLD SSTAs = LA NINA

WEAK EL NIN0 MOD LA NINA STRONG LA NINA WEAK LA NINA MOD EL NINO STRONG EL NIN0 AS OF EARLY MARCH ENSO REGION 3.4 WAS NEUTRAL or la nada

EL NINO or LA NINA EVENTS COME UP FROM THE SUB SURFACE SO BY LOOKING DEEP INTO THE EQUATORIAL WATERS WE CAN SEE IF EL NINO OR LA NINA IS DEVELOPING OR WEAKENING WARM WATER COLD WATER

SINCE FEB 19… THE POOL OF COLD WATER HAS WEAKEND CONSIDERABLY… BUT SO HAS THE WARM POOL. THUS LA NADA OR NEUTRAL ENSO CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THRU AT LEAST MAY 2013.

LETS LOOK AT SOME COMPUTER MODEL FORECASTS FOR THE ENSO TO SEE IF THERE ARE ANY INDICATIONS OF EL NINO or LA NINA EVENTS LATER THIS SPRING / SUMMER 2013 This is the European ENSEMBLE Model. The Numerous red lines show slow rise in ENSO region 3.4 to NEUTRAL conditions in SPRING and POSSIBLE WEAK EL NINO conditions in Summer 2013

This is the CFS ENSEMBLE Model … from CPC (Climate Prediction Center). This Model and its forecasts carries lot of weight with many Grain Meteorologists in making their Spring & Summer forecasts. The CFS shows NEUTRAL conditions LA NADA right through OCT 2013.

This is a SUMMARY of 25 different ENSO computer models run from Mid FEB to NOV The vast MAJORITY shows NEUTRAL conditions thru the Summer This is a SUMMARY of 25 different ENSO computer models run from Mid FEB to NOV The vast MAJORITY shows NEUTRAL conditions thru the Summer

ENSO EVENTS (La Nina or El Nino) ARE ONE OF SEVERAL VERY IMPORTANT / CRITICAL SEAS SURFACE TEMPERATURE PATTERNS AROUND THE GLOBE THAN CAN … AND DO..HAVE MAJOR IMPACTS ON WEATHER PATTERNS IN ENSO EVENTS (La Nina or El Nino) ARE ONE OF SEVERAL VERY IMPORTANT / CRITICAL SEAS SURFACE TEMPERATURE PATTERNS AROUND THE GLOBE THAN CAN … AND DO..HAVE MAJOR IMPACTS ON WEATHER PATTERNS IN N. AMERICA… CHINA… INDIA...AUSTRALIA … and EUROPE. For North America..since MOST of the weather patterns move in a general West to East Direction… large pools of WARM or COLD SSTAs (Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies) directly IMPACT weather patterns in the USA and Canada.

THE PDO THE PDO - PDO - PDO + PDO + PDO NEGATIVE PDO (-PDO) features COLD SSTAs along WEST coast of N. America & WARM waters in central Pacific POSITIVE PDO (+PDO) features WARM SSTAs along WEST coast of N. America& COLD water in Central Pacific

LAST WINTER PATTERN example JULY 2009 example JULY 2009

EXAMPLES

This map shows CURRENT SSTAs around the World. I have highlighted the huge pool of COLD WATERS in the eastern & Northern Pacific Ocean This is a TEXTBOOK Case of a -PDO

THE ANALOG METHOD OF THE ANALOG METHOD OF SEASONAL FORECASTING SEASONAL FORECASTING OK… so now we know that moderate and strong -PDO and +PDO values have big impact on SPRING and SUMMER weather patterns over North America. What can that tell us about SPRING and SUMMER 2013 in USA and southern CANADA ?

HOW and WHY DOES ANALOG SEASONAL FORECASTING WORK? HOW and WHY DOES ANALOG SEASONAL FORECASTING WORK? 1.Certain atmospheric conditions cause some weather patterns to occur more often than others. 2.The KEY is focus on the correct parameters. For example if you think the upcoming Summer is will be influenced by XYZ... but if XYZ does not show your seasonal forecast is going to bust. 1.Look at SUMMER 2012 … It was ASSUMED by most seasonal forecasters that the El Nino would Kick in at SOME point and turn the pattern wetter and cooler over the Midwest and Plains. But as we know now El Nino pattern never developed 3.Requires CONSTANT monitoring as sometimes the specific atmospheric condition (El Nino PDO AMO etc) can collapse or suddenly turn much stronger

Moderately NEGATIVE PDO Rainfall MAM Moderately NEGATIVE PDO Rainfall MAM WET WET DRY DRY GOING into SPRING OF 2013… the current MODERATE -PDO Values are EXPECTED to continue.

COOL COOL Moderately NEGATIVE PDO for TEMPS for MAM Moderately NEGATIVE PDO for TEMPS for MAM

IF THE -PDO GETS STRONGER IN SUMMER 2013 (the Cold water in eastern North Pacific gets colder) IF THE -PDO GETS STRONGER IN SUMMER 2013 (the Cold water in eastern North Pacific gets colder) DRY DRY Above & Much Above Temps Above & Much Above Temps *** SUMMER OF 2012 Featured very strong NEGATIVE PDO *** *** SUMMER OF 2012 Featured very strong NEGATIVE PDO ***

QBO data goes back to mid 1950s. It is essentially a SINE wave. When the QBO value is negative (blowing from west to east) it tends to support certain Types of weather patterns…when it is POSITIVE the QBO tends to support different weather patterns QBO data goes back to mid 1950s. It is essentially a SINE wave. When the QBO value is negative (blowing from west to east) it tends to support certain Types of weather patterns…when it is POSITIVE the QBO tends to support different weather patterns

QBO RAINFALL ANALOGS QBO RAINFALL ANALOGS WETTER THAN NORMAL OVER MO & LOWER MIDWEST

QBO TEMPERATURE ANALOGS QBO TEMPERATURE ANALOGS FOR SPRING QBO DOES NOT GIVE A SIGNAL OR INDICATION OF BELOW OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR SPRING QBO DOES NOT GIVE A SIGNAL OR INDICATION OF BELOW OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS

CFS CLIMATE MODELS APRIL 2013 RAINFALL ** FORECAST ** BASED ON CFS IN EARLY MARCH APRIL 2013 RAINFALL ** FORECAST ** BASED ON CFS IN EARLY MARCH APRIL 2013 LOOKS VERY DRY OVER MIDWEST APRIL 2013 LOOKS VERY DRY OVER MIDWEST

APRIL 2013 TEMPS ** FORECAST ** BASED ON CFS IN EARLY MARCH APRIL 2013 TEMPS ** FORECAST ** BASED ON CFS IN EARLY MARCH

MAY 2013 RAINFALL ** FORECAST ** BASED ON CFS IN EARLY MARCH MAY 2013 RAINFALL ** FORECAST ** BASED ON CFS IN EARLY MARCH MAY 2013 LOOKS DRY OVER GULF COAST NORMAL OVER MIDWEST MAY 2013 LOOKS DRY OVER GULF COAST NORMAL OVER MIDWEST

MAY 2013 TEMP ** FORECAST ** BASED ON CFS IN EARLY MARCH MAY 2013 SHOWS NEAR NORMAL TEMPS MAY 2013 SHOWS NEAR NORMAL TEMPS

JUNE 2013 RAINFALL ** FORECAST ** BASED ON CFS IN EARLY MARCH JUNE 2013 RAINFALL ** FORECAST ** BASED ON CFS IN EARLY MARCH JUNE 2013 LOOKS VERY WET OVER CENTRAL PLAINS & THE MIDWEST JUNE 2013 LOOKS VERY WET OVER CENTRAL PLAINS & THE MIDWEST

JUNE 2013 TEMP ** FORECAST ** BASED ON CFS IN EARLY MARCH JUNE 2013 TEMP ** FORECAST ** BASED ON CFS IN EARLY MARCH MAY 2013 HAS NEAR NORMAL TEMPS OVER MOST OF USA MAY 2013 HAS NEAR NORMAL TEMPS OVER MOST OF USA

NO EL NINO or LA NINE THROUGH END OF MAY 2013 NO EL NINO or LA NINE THROUGH END OF MAY 2013 This means that OTHER atmospheric features will drive the Pattern This means that OTHER atmospheric features will drive the Pattern HUGE DROUGHT AREA OVER PLAINS & MIDWEST is the KEY ISSUE… How fast the drought area will shrink..if it does …will be the BIIIIIG issue SPRING & Early Summer. HUGE DROUGHT AREA OVER PLAINS & MIDWEST is the KEY ISSUE… How fast the drought area will shrink..if it does …will be the BIIIIIG issue SPRING & Early Summer. If the Drought area does NOT shrink / weaken by MAY 30 hard to see a normal Summer for 2013… for all of Plains and Midwest If the Drought area does NOT shrink / weaken by MAY 30 hard to see a normal Summer for 2013… for all of Plains and Midwest EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER… Soil Moisture is IDEAL (in some places it is too darn wet). Chilly & Wet March & early APRIL… lead to talk of Planting delays EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER… Soil Moisture is IDEAL (in some places it is too darn wet). Chilly & Wet March & early APRIL… lead to talk of Planting delays SUMMARY

RELATIVE WEAK QBO VALUES FAVOR STRONG BLOCKING PATTERNS OVER N. AMERICA ALL SPRING RELATIVE WEAK QBO VALUES FAVOR STRONG BLOCKING PATTERNS OVER N. AMERICA ALL SPRING This means COLDER than Normal temps and WETTER than Normal… MAINLY East of the Mississippi River This means COLDER than Normal temps and WETTER than Normal… MAINLY East of the Mississippi River BLOCKING PATTERNS COMBINED WITH -PDO FEATURE… DOES **NOT** FAVOR MODERATE or SIGNIFICANT RAINS IN THE PLAINS /WCB DROUGHT AREAS BLOCKING PATTERNS COMBINED WITH -PDO FEATURE… DOES **NOT** FAVOR MODERATE or SIGNIFICANT RAINS IN THE PLAINS /WCB DROUGHT AREAS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA LOOK LATE… POSSIBLY VERY LATE SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA LOOK LATE… POSSIBLY VERY LATE

column over at Agweb.com column over at Agweb.com LOOKING at SUMMER 2013 … cold water in eastern Pacific (-PDO) favors HOT DRY PATETRN for at least SOME portion of PLAINS/ MIDWEST LOOKING at SUMMER 2013 … cold water in eastern Pacific (-PDO) favors HOT DRY PATETRN for at least SOME portion of PLAINS/ MIDWEST This assumes there is NO EL NINO event which is still a 25-35% chance This assumes there is NO EL NINO event which is still a 25-35% chance