The MTCR at 30: Launching and Sustaining the Regime Richard Speier February 15, 2018

Background Nonproliferation in the 1970s – bilateral & industrial interests 1982 -- OSD enters 1982 -- NSDD 50 and 70 on SLVs & missiles Brazil

The technical focus of missile nonproliferation "Squishy" list vs. Short List of Denials -- reactions 300 km/500 kg UAVs covered 1983-1985 battles over SLVs 1985 "Projects of Concern" Argentina (2), Brazil (2), Egypt (1), India (4), Israel (2), ROK (1) 1985 "Possible" Projects of Concern: Egypt, Indonesia, Iraq, Libya, Pakistan, Taiwan -- Scud not a western system  

Technical developments 1988+ -- deals on joining the MTCR: Brazil, Argentina, So. Africa, Ukraine, ROK, India 1991 -- ad hoc missile definitions (e.g., UNSC 687) 1993 -- WMD-capability, "intended" test Broad acceptance of 300/500

Rules NSDD 70 language: 1983-1986 -- evolution of Category I rule "prohibit", "deny", "stringent", "prevent...any" 1983-1986 -- evolution of Category I rule Cat II rules -- popular innovations include "no-undercut", "catch-all"  

Rules: Later developments Membership expansion OSD weakened Diplomatic baubles, "regime tenders" "Rare" vs. Cat I UAV approvals (101 UAVs to 11 countries since 2006)  

The future Focus on DPRK/Iran What about Turkey, Syria, Arabian Peninsula, Pakistan, Taiwan, Japan/Australia? Increased missile defenses Candidates for controls -- penaids, hypersonics Policy-making outside vs inside the MTCR