NIGERIA STUDENT NOTES CH. 6

Overview: The Big Picture System of Government: Presidential System Distribution of Power: Federal System (not typical) Electoral System: Single Member District Plurality Constitution: Constitution of 1999 Legislature: Bicameral—Senate and House of Rep. Current Head of State: President Muhammadu Buhari Head of Government: President Muhammadu Buhari Current Ruling Party: All Progressives Congress Major Political Parties: People’s Democratic Party (PDP), All Progressives Congress, (APC), All Nigeria People’s Party (ANPP), Action Congress (AC)

What is Nigeria? Since independence (1960) been defined by four republics – mostly military rule caused by violent coups Currently considered an oligarchy b/c of embedded corruption Oil money run by the state - RENTIER Unfinished state – instability of institutions and political uncertainty Since 1999 (4th Republic) stable democratic elections and transition of power (1999, 2003, 2007, 2011, 2015) – federal, state, local Multiethnic political parties, free and active press, civil society, not many human rights abuses by government When a colony – north and south controlled differently – leads to immense cleavages now Oldest surviving federation in Africa 7th most populous countries in the world – most populous in Africa (190 million) 60% of West African population lives in Nigeria 2/3 of population under 25 85% live on less than $2/day Half population Muslim; half Christian HDI 152/174; Half GDP for the entire sub region

Nigeria is a country with so much. Why does it have all these problems?

ESSENTIAL THEMES What has shaped current policy challenges? 1) British colonialism: geography never matched identity 2) Religious, ethnic BOTH pair w/ education and wealth levels Internal ethnic and/or religious associations/in-fighting: Boko Haram, MEND, MOSOP 3) Rentier state Exploitation of natural resource undermines indigenous population in Niger Delta Over 90% of export earnings - price fluctuations, corruption 4) Democratic instability since independence in 1960 4 different attempts to democratize (all ended by coup d'état) Controlled by military 29 out of 55 yrs.

Geography Located in Western Africa, it is the center of the areas regional trade, culture and military strength. It is bordered by four countries: Benin, Niger, Chad, and Cameroon. Its natural resource of oil makes it a hub of activity and conflict Nigeria’s current day borders was an arbitrary creation reflecting British colonial interests.

Population Nigeria, with 174 million people, ranks as the most populous nation in Africa. The northwest is dominated by the largest ethnic group, the Hausa-Fulani. The north are predominantly Muslim. The Southwest is dominated by the country’s second largest group, the Yoruba. The Southeast is the homeland of the Igbo, Nigeria’s third largest group.

Geographic Influences Northwest – dominated by two groups that combined as the Hausa-Fulani people, area is predominantly Muslim. Northeast – area is home to many smaller groups, such as the Kunari, also predominantly Muslim. Middle Belt – many smaller ethnic groups, mix of Muslims and Christians. Southwest – Yoruba dominate the area. They are about 40% Muslim, 40% Christian, and 20% native religions. Southeast – area dominated by the Igbo, predominantly Roman Catholic with some Protestant Christians as well Southern Zone – area along Niger River Delta, people are from various small minority groups.

The North Hausa- Fulani The West Yoruba The East Igbo

Big Ideas to Keep in Your Head ! No Cross Cutting Cleavages Ethnic, Regional, and Religious Coincide No National Identity! Nigeria is only 50 years old Country created because of colonialism Parliamentary system failed…why? Presidential system is working…why?

Sovereignty, Authority, and Power Legitimacy Newly independent (1960) The sole stable national institution is the military Only truly NATIONAL institution is disciplined and able to make decisions efficiently and effectively Leads to legitimacy of military’s right to rule Most leaders have been generals Extremely low legitimacy of government, overall – never been stable Massive corruption, distrust of government

Sovereignty, Authority, and Power COLONIAL PERIOD: (1861-1960) British establish colonial enterprise based on exploitation of natural resources Divided northern and southern regions Further reinforced ethnic/religious cleavages FIRST REPUBLIC: (60 – 67) Parliamentary system w/ Muslim PM Military coup and Biafran War SECOND REPUBLIC (79 – 83) Obasanjo brings democratic reform Coup by Muslim general Patterned after American system THIRD REPUBLIC (92 – 93) Aborted/short-lived attempt at democratic elections FOURTH REPUBLIC (1999 – present) Obasanjo democratically elected president

Influence of British Rule British moved into Nigeria with a combination of government control, religious mission, and economic incentive Deepened ethnic and regional divisions Indirect rule in the north (Muslim leaders) Direct rule in south Christianity (Islam already in North from Arab traders) Western-style education Mostly in south (Christian missionaries) Independence – 1960 Westminster Model Ethnic divisions made it difficult to identify a majority party or allow a PM to have necessary authority

Biafra (1967-70) Igbo secessionist state Desired freedom because they believed the North would always dominate because of their larger numbers (Igbo are the smallest of the big-three ethnicities) Three year civil war resulted in over a million deaths Yakubu Gowon, a Middle-Belt Christian came to power to lead a Nigerian unity government to stop the secession

Sovereignty, Authority, and Power Elected leadership in 1960, overthrown in military coup in 1966 3 more coups by 1976, Olusegun Obasanjo takes power Willfully steps down for democratically elected president in 1979 2 more coups by 1985, when Ibrahim Babangida takes power Resigned under public pressure in 1993 when he promised to step down for civilian leadership, then voided the election Sani Abacha (1993-1998) rules brutally, dies of a heart attack (maybe poisoned?), replaced by Vice President Abubakar Obasanjo elected for 2 terms (1999-2007) Umaru Yar’Adua elected in 2007 All elections finished with concerns of fraud, violence, etc. Dies and Goodluck Jonathan (VP) takes over in 2010

The Second and Third Republics, and Predatory Military Rule (1979-1999) Second Republic (1979-1983)- Shehu Shagari (National Party of Nigeria- did little to stop corruption, fraud or violence. General Muhammadu Buhari seized power (1983); failed to revive economy or return to democratic rule Gen. Ibrahim Babangida seized power (1985); promised democracy but did not follow through; election of 1993 annulled yet won by a Yoruba; Babangida ultimately resigned amid public pressure but hand-picked his successor, Who would be replaced by Gen. Sani Abacha, who also promised democratic reform but delayed and cracked down on political dissent; died in 1998; replaced by Gen. Abdulsalami Abubakar who in turn handed power over to a democratically elected President O. Obasanjo.

Ibrahim Babangida Military President, 1985 – 1993 Resigned

Sani Abacha Military President, 1993 – 1998 Died in office

Olusegun Obasanjo Military President, 1976 – 1979 Resigned for democratic leadership President, 1999 – 2007 Term limited

The Fourth Republic (1999-present) Obasanjo retired all military leaders who held positions under military governments Promised to fix the economy and Nigerian state. Raised the minimum wage Paid off large foreign debt New management for oil sector “truth and reconciliation” commission to address abuses and fight corruption Won re-election amid a electoral malpractices which lost confidence among the people. National Political Reform conference 2005- to review constitution and establish legitimacy. Attempted to maintain power by declaring himself “chairman for life” The people elected Yar’ Adua in May 2007. Good luck Jonathan elected in May 2010.

Umaru Yar’Adua President, 2007 – 2010 Died and replaced by VP

Goodluck Jonathan President, 2010 – 2016

This time he was directly elected Muhammadu Buhari is the President of Nigeria, in office since 29 May 2015. He is a retired Nigerian Army major general and was Head of State of Nigeria from 31 December 1983 to 27 August 1985, after taking power in a military coup d'état This time he was directly elected All Peoples Congress Party/APC

MARCH, 2015 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION First time in history opposition party peacefully took power and an incumbent president didn’t win.

Elections & Electoral Procedures State & local governments are completely dependent on the central government National Elections Presidential Elections If presidential candidate does not receive outright majority, a second ballot election takes place. President must receive at least 25% of the votes in 2/3 of the states A purely regional candidate can not win/requirement reflects difficulty experienced in attempt to unify Nigeria

Since Independence 1979 – Presidential System Both systems experienced frequent interruptions/periods of Military Rule –frequent coups

Since Independence A Nigerian pattern Military leaders say they are preparing for a transition to democratic leadership but it never seemed to happen. Leaders who are truly interested in the transition are assassinated like Murtala Muhammed in 1976. General Babangida announced a democratic transition and then annulled the 1993 election (the elusive 3rd republic) General Abacha schemed to orchestrate the outcome of his announced transition in 1998 to produce his own “election” as president.

Elections Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) National level citizens vote for the president, representatives to the National Assembly, and senators from their states, but elections are held on all three levels (Federation) Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) Attempted to cleanse electoral process International teams concluded elections were corrupt Voting boxes were stolen, vandalized, and stuffed with fraudulent votes Voting patterns in the south in particular were suspicious Register new political parties

Policy Making Institutions: The Executive Executive – President and Cabinet Directly elected, 4 yr term, 2 term limit Elected popularly – must win 25% of votes cast in 2/3 of states in 2 round majority system May appoint officials to all parts of national government without approval of legislature Receives all gov oil revenues and distributes to states according to written law Commander-in-chief Veto power

Policy Making Institutions: The Executive 1999 Constitution Authored by military – not approved until after elections had occurred Enormous powers in the federal government and in the hands of the president (legacy of authoritarian military rule – several military dictators called themselves ‘president’ like Babangida and Abacha) Powers of the state and local governments are delineated by the federal constitution and most of them receive their entire budget from the center “Federal character” maintained by ethnic quotas

Military Executives Hurt the image of the military – was viewed as a “predatory apparatus” and not the guardian of the people. Abacha suspended habeas corpus and hounded opponents into exile Legislature disbanded and major executive decisions were subject to approval of a military ruling council (all members were ‘yes-man’ clients of the dictator)

Policy Making Institutions: The Legislature Legislature – parliamentary until 1979, now bicameral National Assembly Senators and Representatives serve 4 year terms, elected the week before the president Senate 109 Senators, 3 per state, 1 from Abuja Very diverse given the different regions that are equally represented House of Representatives 360 members Very little power, but occasionally acts as a check on president (like when Obasanjo wanted a 3rd term); attempted to impeach him multiple times

Policy Making Institutions: Bureaucracy Appointed on the basis of patronage, ethnic groups, regional origin Called PREBENDALISM in Nigeria b/c based off mostly ethnicity Salaries constitute half of government expenditures which is why anti corruption efforts have intervened to control spending. Assumed to be bloated, corrupt, and inefficient Parastatals – privately and publically owned, headed by government appointees (part of the patron-client network) Provide public utilities or major industries Nigerian Electric Power Administration (NEPA) – called “Never Expect Power Again” by Nigerians Changed name to Power Holding Company (PHC) – called “Please Hold Candle” by Nigerians State corporatism – parastatals serve to give the appearance of public/private cooperation, while really giving the state control

Bureaucracy-Parastatals Corporatism – authoritarian political system that allows for political input from selected interest groups outside the government structure In Nigeria, this input is provided by parastatals, because they are controlled by the government it is referred to as State Corporatism Parastatals insure that the state controls private interest as well as fulfills social & economic functions Parastatals serve as contact point between government & business interests, but state ultimately controls these interactions (Corrupt & inept)

Bureaucracy-Parastatals Most government agencies are parastatals, or corporations owned by the state. (Similar to Mexico) Provide commercial and social welfare services Board members are appointed by government ministers, and corporate executives are part of the president’s patronage system Parastatals provide public utilities such as water, electricity, public transportation, and agricultural subsidies Control major industries such as steel, defense industry, and petroleum

Policy Making Institutions: Bureaucracy As with many “developing nations”, the bureaucracy has been the source of employment for large numbers of people not engaged in trade or agriculture. Major source of corruption due to political instability, lack of accountability, and massive cash from oil production. Bureaucracy has maintained its power throughout military and civilian rule

Prebendalism Disbursing of public offices and state rents to one’s ethnic-based clients. The officeholder’s “clients” comprise a specific set of elites to which he is linked, typically by ethnic or religious ties Kaduna Mafia Abacha’s Boys & Babangida’s Boys Prebendalism deepened sectional cleavages and eroded the resources of the state. It also discouraged genuinely productive activity in civil society and expanded the class of individuals who live off state patronage Transparency International lists Nigeria as one of the world’s most corrupt nations

Policy Making Institutions: The Judiciary Following English common law – except those northern states who adhere to sharia Politicized under harsher military leaders, but now largely independent w/ some credibility 15 judges on SC appointed by president and confirmed by Senate Federal and state courts with an appeals process up to the Supreme Court Strong and autonomous after independence, but since ravaged by military rule Most judges today are not well versed in law, easily manipulated by the government Theoretically in charge of judicial review, not practically Law is complicated by the sharia which operates in 12 northern states, controversially

Policy Making Institutions: The Military You cannot study Nigerian politics without recognizing the importance of the military in all aspects of political life. A mix of ethnic groups Well disciplined, organized, with the ability to make decisions efficiently and effectively One of only sources of national unity Armed forces also seen as more representative than political parties and other institutions of government that are subject to ethnic-based patronage. HOWEVER, ethnic cleavages are the backdrop to military/authoritarian rule

Policy Making Institutions: The Military Guess what? It’s strong! Military made distinctions between “military in government” and “military in barracks” after early coups “Military in government” presidents (like Babangida) had to restrain influence of traditional military Appointed senior military to cabinet positions to make them part of his patronage network The best place for young Nigerians to improve their lives, demonstrate their talents Controversial, but it is the one national institution with the capability to restore order

Citizens, Society, and the State: Political Parties Regionally based multiethnic coalitions Extreme factionalization resulted in development of so many parties, there is no coherent party system GOALS and IDEOLOGIES rarely mentioned Parties appear and disappear based on leaders Currently: People’s Democratic Party (PDP) All Nigeria People’s Party (ANPP) Action Congress (AC) – merger of many parties

Citizens, Society, and the State BIG PICTURE! Parties are alliances of convenience among Big Men – agenda is based on POWER and CONTROL over resources People’s Democratic Party (PDP) Has national appeal Has won every presidential election since 1999 (until 2015) Claim to support market economy and national health service Social conservatism All Nigeria People’s Party (ANPP) 2003 Formally the All People’s Party APP 1999 Northern thus Muslim-based party Main opposition party Action Congress (AC) Left of center

Citizens, Society, and the State: Elections Elections are a matter not of issues but of personality, patronage, and of regional, religious and ethnic identities Rigging and voter manipulation common Violence and uproar after elections common Promote growth toward democracy…aka, better than a coup

Citizens, Society, and the State Necessary condition for democratization: citizens need to have time to pay attention and participate in the political process Problem for Nigeria: One of the most fragmented countries IN THE WORLD People are FRAGMENTED and POLARIZED Any concession is seen as total defeat Only thing they have in common is poverty Large gap between rich and poor (Gini = 48.8) Health issues – AIDS epidemic (1 in 11 AIDS carriers are Nigerian) Literacy – 75.7% for men, 60.6% for women Illiteracy highest in countryside (~50%)

Citizens, Society, and the State GEOGRAPHY Entire state divided based on ethnicity Urbanization on trend Cities segregated based on ethnicity CIVIL SOCIETY Open and free JUST NOT EFFECTIVE Religious, occupational groups, student groups, women’s groups POLITICAL PARTICIPATION Limited to voting, joining civil groups based on religion/ethnicity MEDIA Freedom of the press Both privately and publically (regional and national) owned Mainly radio; newspapers and TV

Citizens, Society, and the State Public Opinion and Political Participation Protests, Participation, and Social Movements Increasing protest and organization/mobilization since 1999 Often focused around international oil companies

POLITICAL ECONOMY: OIL CONSEQUENCES: lack of diversification of the local economy price fluctuations caused by dependence on world market income inequality exacerbated where disparity is already extreme no incentive to industrialize/modernize economy increased opportunity for corrupt usage of income from rents lack of accountability to citizens

Citizens, Society, and the State There's a long-standing dilemma in Nigeria's oil-rich Niger Delta region. The people are desperately poor and blame the oil companies for polluting their land and fishing waters. As a result, many folks steal oil from pipelines and refine it in barrels along the creeks. That, in turn, further pollutes the environment.

Citizens, Society, and the State ETHNIC MOVEMENTS arose socioeconomic inequality and discrimination. exploitation of local natural resources by the government and foreign oil companies MEND: Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta. MOSOP: Movement for the Survival of the Ogoni People. Indigenous peoples in Niger Delta (Ijaw). OPC: Oodua People’s Congress (Yoruba). MASSOB: Movement for the Actualization of the Sovereign State of Biafra (Igbo)

Citizens, Society, and the State MEND's stated goals are to localize control of Nigeria's oil and to secure reparations from the federal government for pollution caused by the oil industry Environmentalist Ken Saro-Wiwa Targeted the international oil companies

Citizens, Society, and the State MOSOP's mandate is to campaign non-violently to: promote democratic awareness; protect the environment of the Ogoni people; seek social, economic and physical development for the region; protect the cultural rights and practices of the Ogoni people; and seek appropriate rights of self-determination for the Ogoni people.

POLITICAL ECONOMY Origins of Economic Decline Nigerian economy was centered on agricultural production for domestic consumption as well as for export. Nigeria self-sufficient in food production at independence Late 1960s emphasis shifted to nonfood export crops through large-scale enterprises Small farms received little government support. Food production declined, food imports increased to meet population needs. Three factors undermined Nigerian agriculture: Biafran War (1967–1970) Severe drought and subsequent famine Development of petroleum industry

POLITICAL ECONOMY 1970s oil boom allowed Nigeria to increase education, defense, infrastructure expenditures Increased oil wealth increased corruption. Oil boom: Good and Bad Nigerian wealth was perceived by elite as source of strength. When the oil market fell, oil dependence was seen as a source of weakness. Nigeria was forced to seek support from international financial institutions. IMF & World Bank Nigeria remains dependent on Western technology and expertise for oil exploration and extraction. Formation of African Union, based on European-style integration Governments commit to good governance and economic reforms in exchange for access to Western markets and financial assistance.

Political Economy and Development Nigeria in the Regional Political Economy Economic Community of West Africa States (ECOWAS)-attempts to unite currency and trade efforts Mission: promote economic integration across the region; trade block

Political Economy and Development Oil Oil wealth during the 1970s gave Nigeria international leverage OPEC member Conflicts in Middle East have made Nigeria more important as a trade partner for other countries since 1970s Lack of economic diversification hurts Nigeria when oil prices drop DEBT – as a result of drop in oil prices and lack of revenue surplus Structural Adjustment 1980s, Nigeria seeks assistance from international organizations to deal with debt crisis World Bank & IMF involvement Restructure & diversification of Nigerian economy Privatize parastatals Cut government spending “Shock Treatment” not very successful Parastatals still under government control Debt repayment had to be restructured

Reforms Further privatization of state-owned industry Economic Reforms of the late 1990s Further privatization of state-owned industry Limitations on economic controls of the central government Money taken by General Abacha returned by foreign banks and placed in the state treasury Scheme for alleviating poverty in Nigeria Increase in public wages Hope of decreasing instances of corruption Increase in financial reserves as a result of stabilized oil prices