Influence

Freewrite Do trailer parks cause tornadoes? Why or why not? Why would somebody ask that? Why do I ask? Dont forget to turn this in for participation credit!

Tornados and trailer parks

The problem of buying votes Interest groups do give –To members on committees important to their policy area –More money right before an important vote Members do vote with the groups that give them money Problem of simultaneous causation

Which is cause and which is effect? Interest group gives a campaign contribution Interest group lobbies member Member votes with interest group Member takes issue positions favorable to an interest group

When members of Congress decide how to cast a vote, what do they consider?

How do members of Congress make decisions? DeterminativeMajor importance Minor importance Not important Constituents7%31%51%12% Fellow MCs5%42%28%25% Party leaders0%5%32%63% Interest groups1%25%40%35% Administration4%14%21%61% Staff1%8%26%66%

How do MCs make decisions? Fellow members Constituents Interest Groups President Party Staff

Complexity of Interest Group influence Member of Congress Constituents Party Other members Interest Group Campaign Contributions & lobbying Going public Campaign contributions / revolving door loyalty

Interest groups and the public Get own members to write to/visit member of Congress –Particularly MCs own constituents! Lobby the public –Get journalists to cover groups issue/research/demonstrationsresearch –Run TV ads about upcoming vote –Take part in the culture war

Complexity of Interest Group influence Member of Congress Constituents Party Other members Interest Group Campaign Contributions & lobbying Going public Campaign contributions / revolving door loyalty

Methodological issues Of course theyd say that. Is there a mechanism? How to take all factors into account? –Statistics!

Research conclusions PAC contributions dont buy votes on issues that constituents are aware of, or party cares about PAC Contributions may influence… committee votes on amendments level of member activity tax and regulatory bills (low profile) more than spending bills

How could we prove that campaign contributions/access/lobbying affects congressional outcomes? Interest group gives a campaign contribution Interest group lobbies member Member votes with interest group Member takes issue positions favorable to an interest group