The elevation dependence of snowfall in the Appalachian Ridge and Valley Region of Northeast Pennsylvania Mike Evans – NOAA / NWS BGM Mike Jurewicz – NOAA.

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Presentation transcript:

The elevation dependence of snowfall in the Appalachian Ridge and Valley Region of Northeast Pennsylvania Mike Evans – NOAA / NWS BGM Mike Jurewicz – NOAA / NWS BGM Rachael Kline – SUNY Binghamton

Topography in northeast Pennsylvania Study Area

Research Goals and Methodology Determine impacts of elevation on snowfall in northeast Pennsylvania Examine cases from 2005-2014 (snowfall at last 4 inches) For each case, determine a “high-elevation” snowfall (from an average of stations above 1000 ft ASL) and “low-elevation” snowfall (from an average of stations below 1000 ft ASL). Examine model and observational data to determine characteristics of events with high vs. low elevation dependence. Derive an equation to predict the snowfall ratio of high elevation vs. low elevation snowfall.

Median snowfall

Ratio by season

Define low-elevation dependence vs. high elevation dependence high elevation snowfall / low elevation snowfall < 1.15 (1st quartile) High-elevation dependence: High elevation snowfall / low elevation snowfall > 1.5 (4th quartile)

High elevation dependence cases

Low elevation dependence cases Low elevation (12 cases) High elevation (12 cases) Elevation Dependence

Surface temperature at AVP

Surface wind at AVP

0-1 km wind component perpendicular to the sw-ne oriented ridges

950-850 hPa lapse rate

Surface wind speed / 0-1 km wind speed

Froude number

A predictive equation R2 = 0.53 Y = 0.4804 + 0.0105 (Surface Temp) - 0.09315 (surface wind) + 0.0602 (0-1 km wind) + 1.7896(surface wind / 0-1 km wind) – 32.1653(N)

Example – February 2, 2015

Ratio forecasts Average surface temperature 31 °F Surface wind speed 8 kt 0-1 km wind 21 kt Sfc / 0-1 km wind 0.385 N (stability factor) 0.019 Predicted ratio 1.39 Observed ratio 1.53 (8.4/5.5) High-resolution ensemble forecast ratio approximately 2.0 to 2.5

Research to operations Before After

Summary The median high elevation vs. low elevation ratio for the cases in the study was about 1.25. However – many cases depart substantially from the median The biggest factor that determines the ratio is wind speed. Temperature and stability are also factors. Examination of the Froude number is a good way to determine elevation dependence of snowfall. Use of the equation derived in this study also appears to be a promising method – in combination with high resolution model output.