Looking to the Future to Protect the Past: Managing the effects of climate change and sea level rise on archaeological sites at Fort Eustis, Newport News, Virginia Scott Seibel, RPA 7 April 2017

Threat of Global Climate Change to Cultural Heritage Global climate change poses myriad threats to coastal and riverine cultural heritage Most pressing threat to tangible cultural heritage is erosion from sea level rise and increased tides, flooding, and storm surge Erosive forces are increasing shoreline retreat, undermining buildings and structures, and eroding cultural heritage The scope of this problem is international and grows more concerning as climate change intensifies Per Erlandson (2008:168), “if left unchecked, rising seas, accelerated erosion, .... will destroy many of the world’s most important coastal…sites.” Jamestown, Virginia Hashima Coal Mine, Japan Looking to the Future to Protect the Past September 20, 2018

Impact Assessment and Climate Change Acute need to effectively plan for climate change impacts to cultural heritage Need to factor in the long-term impacts of climate change to ensure that projects are designed in such a way to protect costly investments. Need to ensure assessments focus on both short-term direct effects and long-term preservation strategies. How can we integrate climate change into impact assessment, project planning, and design to protect cultural heritage over the long-term? Skara Brae, Scotland Rapa Nui National Park, Chile Looking to the Future to Protect the Past September 20, 2018

Project Location and Regulatory Driver Joint Base Langley-Eustis in Virginia Need for recommendations regarding site significance, long-term planning, and mitigation for 31 threatened archaeological sites National Historic Preservation Act Section 106: For specific Federal actions, such as those Federally funded or permitted Section 110: For overall management of cultural heritage and establishment of preservation programs by Federal agencies Looking to the Future to Protect the Past September 20, 2018

Current Threats to Archaeological Sites from High Tide and Flooding MHHW (Mean Higher High Water) 2015 Floodplain Shows water elevation at maximum high tide 1% Water Surface Elevation Shows area that has a 1% annual chance of flooding Looking to the Future to Protect the Past September 20, 2018

Potential Future Sea Level Rise Impacts Estimates for Low and High Sea Level Rise for: 2020 2025 2035 2065 Impacts to low elevation wetlands over 10-20 year timeframe Loss of buffers protecting sites Moderate to significant site impacts As early as 2035 Looking to the Future to Protect the Past September 20, 2018

Examples of Erosion at Archaeological Sites Environmental Factors Causing Erosion at Archaeological Sites Long Fetch High Wave Energy Lack of Vegetative Buffers Inundation during High Tide and Flood Events Shoreline Orientation Soil Composition Bank Slope Sea Level Rise will exacerbate all of these factors Looking to the Future to Protect the Past September 20, 2018

Engineering and Archaeological Management Options Engineering Options Geotextile Tubes Living Shorelines (including Hybrid) Oyster Reefs Rip-Rap Reef Balls and Wave Attenuation Devices Archaeological Options No Action Site Monitoring NRHP Significance Evaluation Archaeological Data Recovery Excavation Alternative/Creative Mitigation Looking to the Future to Protect the Past September 20, 2018

Installation Specific Recommendations Road map for the future management and protection of Ft. Eustis’ cultural heritage. Integrate recommendations into the Fort Eustis Cultural Resources Management Program. Refocus efforts to evaluate significance of high risk sites to determine need for long-term erosion control measures. Determine where short-term erosion controls would reduce threat profile while sites are integrated into a longer-term program of significance evaluation. Deprioritize site evaluations within low-threat areas that may be buffered from the effects of climate change for decades. Looking to the Future to Protect the Past September 20, 2018

Relevance of Project to Impact Assessment Pro-active Project Design and Integrative Impact Assessment An integrated, holistic approach can reduce or eliminate threats of global climate change and project impacts on cultural heritage Use Available Data Sets to Estimate Future Sea Level Rise Even simple data can provide useful and actionable information Integrate into Long-Term Management Lack of long-term protection is an indirect effect to significant cultural heritage Cultural Heritage at Ft. Eustis Looking to the Future to Protect the Past September 20, 2018

Impact Assessment and Project Design How Do Project Design and Resource Protection Interact? Modeling water flow can be used to identify locations where erosion may be increased, or diminished, based on different project designs. Mitigation as Preservation or Effect Planting of shoreline vegetation as mitigation can provide protection for on-shore cultural heritage Placement of groins or seawall changing water flow and causing erosion of cultural heritage Assess and Mitigate for Threats over the Long-Term Preserved cultural heritage may be flooded 20+ years after project construction Long-Term Monitoring Programs Assess changing impacts to cultural heritage (and natural resources) Provide remedies for failing preservation methods Looking to the Future to Protect the Past September 20, 2018

Impact Assessment has a Role in the Management and Mitigation of Threat of Global Climate Change to Cultural Heritage

Scott Seibel, MSc, RPA Principal Investigator Education Registrations Scott Seibel, MSc, is a Registered Professional Archaeologist with over 20 years of professional experience in archaeological excavations, research, and compliance studies who exceeds the Secretary of the Interior’s Professional Qualification Standards (36 CFR Part 61). He is the Archaeology Team Lead for AECOM’s Germantown’s Cultural Resource Management Group. Mr. Seibel has extensive cultural resource management experience, having served as Principal Investigator or Field Director for tens of thousands of acres of Phase I archaeological survey, dozens of Phase II evaluations, and 12 Phase III data recovery excavations within the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Texas. Education M.Sc., Archaeomaterials, University of Sheffield, 1997 BA, Archaeological Studies, University of Texas, 1996 Registrations 36 CFR 61 (Archaeology and History) Registered Professional Archaeologist Looking to the Future to Protect the Past September 20, 2018

Thank You Scott.Seibel@AECOM.com 7 April 2017