Norm O'Reilly, Alan Kaptan, Ryan Rahine, John Nadeau "If You Can't Win, Why Should I Buy a Ticket?": Hope, Fan Welfare, and Competitive Balance Norm O'Reilly, Alan Kaptan, Ryan Rahine, John Nadeau Sean Sikorski

Overview The success of a professional sport franchise is rooted in its relationship with its fans A fan wants to see his or her favorite team win Potentially will not spend their disposable entertainment dollars on a team that consistently loses

Overview Discuss the link between the goal of the firm and the need for competitive balance Establish fan welfare (satisfaction) as a goal of the firm Introduce "hope" as an important dimension of fan welfare The concept of hope is positioned as the uncertainty of outcomes (UOH)

The Need for CB to Promote Fan Welfare The goal of the professional sports team (and possibly league) is, or should include, the promotion of fan welfare Fan interest will result from an increase in the uncertainty of outcomes Fans in some locations may be willing to pay more to see a winner, whereas fans in other locations may be more loyal to their teams Free agency leading to a lack of competitive balance

  What Is "Hope"? Proper competitive balance will not exist until every well-run club has a regularly recurring hope of reaching postseason play Three types of behavioral outcomes occur: (1) commitments at the game level (2) commitments at the within-season level (3) commitments at the between-season level

As an example, the New York Yankees have regularly made the playoffs in recent years, but in so doing have not greatly deterred the hope of fans of other teams because there are multiple playoff spots available.

Method Random sample survey was implemented during July of 2006 in a large urban center that is home to an MLB team The survey was designed to assess the underlying themes of “hope” and test whether hope is a consideration in one's decision to consume baseball Pinpoint when the average fan loses hope

Results Part 1: Random Sample Mass-market Survey A sample of 367 individuals completed the survey. The characteristics of the sample include 54.5% male 67.8% with a university or college degree 25.3% spent their "recreational time" attending events 34.1% watching events/programs on television 8.0% listening to events/programs on the radio 22.3% consuming entertainment by the Internet Specific to their lifetime consumption of MLB 62.7% had previously attended a MLB game 58.6% had watched an entire MLB game on television 21.0% had previously listened to an entire MLB game on the radio

Consequently, all types of fans (those who watch TV, those who attend games, and those who do both) are associated with hope

Results Part II - Trade Analysis Results showed teams with 5.5 games or more out of a playoff spot mostly made trades where they let go of salary Teams that were less than 5.5 games out of the playoffs mostly took on salary with their trades

Discussion and Conclusions The results suggest that maximizing fan welfare is a legitimate goal of the firm While maximizing aggregate fan hope across a league is important, it would not be beneficial to take every team into the playoffs When CB is perceived to exist, the professional sports franchise may be able to attract previous attendees in higher numbers Sport marketers should readily communicate the message of hope to the local market when the team has a good chance of winning a playoff position

Discussion and Conclusions CB based on hope over time and to test whether this metric more effectively explains the relationship of CB and attendance Test for the interaction effects of changes in playoff structure A future study that looks at sold tickets not used or re-sold on a team's website