Cotton Economic Update

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Presentation transcript:

Cotton Economic Update Beltwide Cotton Conferences January 8-11, 2008 Nashville, TN

Cotton Prices

Cotton Production (Mil Bales) 02-06 2007 Share World 109.1 118.8 1. China 28.2 35.5 30% 2. India 16.9 24.0 20% 3. US 20.8 19.0 16% 4. Pakistan 9.4 8.5 7% 5. Brazil 5.5 7.0 6%

Thousand Acres & % Change from 2006 US Cotton 2007 Planted Area Thousand Acres & % Change from 2006 Mid-South 2,740 -35% West 693 -15% Southwest 5,150 -25% Southeast 2,264 -32%

Relative Futures Prices at Planting Time

Change in ’07 Cotton Area

Cotton Mill Use (Mil Bales) 02-06 2007 Share World 108.9 128.3 1. China 39.1 55.0 43% 2. India 15.3 19.3 15% 3. Pakistan 10.7 12.0 9% 4. Turkey 6.7 7.2 6% 5. US 6.2 4.6 4%

Annual Change in World Mill Use

Price Indices

China Mill Use & Imports * Crop Year estimated based on PCI Fibres data

China’s Prices Above A Index

India Emerging as Exporter

Indian Cotton Priced Below Other Growths

US Mill Use & Retail Demand

US Exports

Cotton Farm Price

Relative Futures Prices for ’08 Strong Competition for Acres

World Cotton S&D Production Expected to Fall Short of Use

Cotton Futures

Producers Cooperatives Merchants Ginners Cottonseed Warehouses Manufacturers