The Northern Ireland Longitudinal Study Mrs Máire Brolly & Dr David Marshall (NISRA - NILS) www.nisra.gov.uk/nils Dr Dermot O’Reilly (QUB)

NISRA Statistics and Registration for government to provide high quality demographic information to enable the number and the condition of the population to be monitored and changes over time to be identified Includes Census and General Register Office (GRO)

Content of Presentation What is the NILS? What Research can be done? Future Direction Management Issues Dr Dermot O’Reilly

What is the NILS? (What is Longitudinal data?) Longitudinal data trace the experience of the same individuals over time. Can be - survey-based e.g. Millennium Cohort study administrative records based – NILS

What is the NILS? (Background) Sample members selected based on birth date 104 birth dates giving 28% sample 500,000 people Data included 1991 & 2001 Census Demographic details from GP registrations Vital Events (births, stillbirths, deaths, marriages) Migration (derived from GP registration data)

What is the NILS? (What types of Analysis?) Analysis of Census and Event data Employment status and mortality Profile population who move Analysis of Successive Events Birth spacing Migration and fertility Widow(er)hood & Mortality Simple cross-tabulations or Detailed statistical models

What is the NILS? (Example) 27-year old Female in 1991 Address Change Address Change Marriage Death Birth of Child Birth of Child Census Census Census | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1991 2001 2011 Single Employed Married Employed Good General Health Divorced Economically Inactive Poor General Health

Births to sample mothers E&W LS SLS NILS Number Dates 4 20 104 Size 500,000 (1%) 300,000 (5%) (28%) Start Date 1971 1991 Number of Censuses 2 Data on all 3 LSs Births to sample mothers Births of sample members Deaths of sample members Immigrants Embarkations

Births to Sample Fathers ✔ E&W LS SLS NILS Births to Sample Fathers ✔ Stillbirths/ Infant Deaths Internal Migration Cancer Registrations Hospital Episodes Education Marriages Claimant Count

Different People Different issues Different Policies WHY DOES NI NEED AN LS? Different People highest population growth in UK, 2006 highest proportion of children smallest proportion of pensionable age highest fertility rate of the 4 UK countries Different issues employment rate was the lowest in the UK highest working age population with no qualifications house price growth in Northern Ireland breaks all records (in UK) Different Policies Northern Ireland Act 1998 Section 75 equality between … Different People highest population growth in UK, 2005 highest proportion of children smallest proportion of pensionable age highest fertility rate of the 4 UK countries Different issues employment rate was the lowest in the UK highest working age population with no qualifications house price growth in Northern Ireland breaks all records (in UK) Different Policies Northern Ireland Act 1998 Section 75 equality between Persons of different religious belief Between persons with a disability and persons without … Population growth in the year to mid-2005 was fastest in Northern Ireland, at 0.8 per cent. NI has the largest percentage of children and the smallest percentage of persons of pensionable age: NI has the highest general and total period fertility rate of the 4 UK countries: The employment rate (for people of working age) was the lowest in the UK at 68 per cent in spring 2005. Northern Ireland has 24% of the working age population with no qualifications compared to 14 % at UK level. England, Wales, Scotland, (14%, 17%, 14%) House price growth in Northern Ireland breaks all records (in UK) Section 75 of the Northern Ireland Act 1998 (the Act) places the following statutory requirements on each public authority: (1) A public authority shall in carrying out its functions relating to Northern Ireland have due regard to the need to promote equality of opportunity- a) between persons of different religious belief, political opinion, racial group, age, marital status or sexual orientation; b) between men and women generally; c) between persons with a disability and persons without; and d) between persons with dependants and persons without. (2) Without prejudice to its obligations under subsection (1), a public authority shall in carrying out its functions relating to Northern Ireland have regard to the desirability of promoting good relations between persons of different religious belief, political opinion or racial group. Schedule 9 of the Act sets out the provisions for the enforcement of these duties, including the key elements of an equality scheme. Equality schemes must show ‘how the public authority proposes to fulfil the duties imposed by Section 75’. EQIAs need carried out In the context of the Section 75 duties, an Equality Impact Assessment (EQIA) is a thorough and systematic analysis of a policy, whether that policy is written or unwritten, formal or informal, and irrespective of the scope of that policy or the size of the public authority.

NILS Mortality Database In addition … NILS Mortality Database Deaths since 2001 Linked to Census Records 65,000 deaths Main NILS has 17,500 deaths Larger size means more detailed analyses of data – e.g. cause of death, geographical area

What Research can be done? (Example Projects) Temperature-related mortality and housing in Northern Ireland. Lone mothers at time of birth: who are they? An exploration of their socio-economic and household characteristics. The distribution of lung cancer deaths in Northern Ireland by population and household type. Describing and Modelling Internal Migration in NI 2001-2006 using the NILS: Individuals, Households and Places

What Research can be done? (Example Projects) Mortality amongst residents of nursing and residential homes. Admission of older people to residential and nursing homes. Socio-demographic and area correlates of suicides in NI. Alcohol-related deaths. Denomination differences in health and short-term mortality in NI. Area influences on health: does the extent of religious segregation matter? Socio-economic and cultural influences on the reporting of self-reported health. Relationship between the self-reported health questions and short-term mortality. Emigration from NI and effect on the spatial distribution of health. Relationship between unemployment and health. Deprivation and Health – Resilience & comparison with Scotland.

Future Direction (New Data) Would like to add in more data E&W Cancer Registrations Scotland Hospital Episodes Potential Datasets: Dental data Cancer screening data Hospital episodes Prescribing data Child Health Data, Maternity Data School Exam Data Social Services Benefits Data

Management of the NILS Funded by the HPSS RDO and DHSS&PS Began work in 2003 Launched December 2006 Data Custodian is Registrar General for NI NILS Steering Group Research Approvals Group Research Support Unit in early 2008 ESRC/RDO Jointly funding research

Management of the NILS (Legal/Ethical/Security) All data processed under the law 1969 Census Act (amendment) Birth and Death Registration Information Commissioner Northern Ireland advice HPSS legislation ORECNI ethical approval for database and associated research Sensitive nature of data Legal restrictions on staff Data held and processed in highly secure IT environment (biometric access etc…)

Access Arrangements Come and talk to us Complete an Application form Get Research Approvals Group Approval Once approved Work in Secure Environment in McAuley House Can analyse non-identifiable individual records Complete Analysis (with assistance if required) and generate output All output checked for Disclosure

Some Initial Findings Fertility Mortality Migration Average spacing between births 34 months Catholic General Fertility Rate higher than Protestant Widow(er)hoods – 90% women, 80% of men survived partner by 4+ years Majority of NI moves are between Urban Areas Average distance moved is 4 miles 20% of people moved up (in terms of bedrooms)

Dr Dermot O’Reilly Epidemiology Research Group Centre for Clinical & Population Sciences Queen’s University of Belfast

Contact Details Mrs Máire Brolly 028 9034 8131 nils.nisra@dfpni.gov.uk www.nisra.gov.uk/NILS Dr Dermot O’Reilly 028 9063 2738 d.oreilly@qub.ac.uk

The Northern Ireland Longitudinal Study Mrs Máire Brolly & Dr David Marshall (NISRA - NILS) www.nisra.gov.uk/nils Dr Dermot O’Reilly (QUB)