1. Religion and fertility in contemporary N Ireland
Pat McGregor Pat McKee

2. The help provided by the staff of the Northern Ireland Longitudinal Study/Northern Ireland Mortality Study (NILS) and the NILS Research Support Unit is acknowledged.  The NILS is funded by the Health and Social Care Research and Development Division of the Public Health Agency (HSC R&D Division) and NISRA.  The NILS-RSU is funded by the ESRC and the Northern Ireland Government. The authors alone are responsible for the interpretation of the data and any views or opinions presented are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of NISRA/NILS.

3. Data Published data The NILS General Register Office Census
Registered births, published quarterly but religion not asked
Census
Religion asked but the census is only conducted every 10 years
The NILS
Allows a sample of 28% of the population matched from the above sources.
In this study, the sample relates to women aged 15 – 45 in the period
Each observation consists of whether the woman concerned had a birth
in the particular year; where detailed economic data were not available,
the characteristics of the locality were used.
In total, there were over 108,000 women in the panel on which there were
almost a million observations.

4. Religion questions in 2001 Census
8 Do you regard yourself as belonging to any particular religion?
Yes Go to 8a No Go to 8b
8a What religion, religious denomination or body do you belong to?
Roman Catholic (40.26 %)
Presbyterian Church in Ireland (20.69 %)
Church of Ireland (15.30 %)
Methodist Church in Ireland (03.51 %)
Other, please write in

5. Religion questions in 2001 Census
8 Do you regard yourself as belonging to any particular religion?
Yes Go to 8a No Go to 8b
8b What religion, religious denomination or body were you brought up in?
Roman Catholic ( 7.99%)
Protestant (14.23%)
Other, please write in
None

6. Comparing fertility by groups
Catholic
Protestant
Former Catholic
Former Protestant

7. Births between Protestants and Catholics

8. Births between former Protestants and former Catholics

9. The average marginal effects of religious identification

10. Discussion
The fertility of a Catholic woman is estimated as being 4% higher than a Protestant one in the period concerned – there is little evidence of convergence

11. Discussion The fertility of a Catholic woman is estimated
as being 4% higher than a Protestant one
in the period concerned – there is little evidence of convergence
There are several possible explanations for this
Dogma – the Catholic religion is pro-natalist whereas the Protestant is more choice based

12. Fertility rates within Ireland and internationally

13. Discussion The fertility of a Catholic woman is estimated
as being 4% higher than a Protestant one
in the period concerned – there is little evidence of convergence
There are several possible explanations for this
Dogma – the Catholic religion is pro-natalist whereas the Protestant is more choice based
Separation – residential separation has been marked and stable
in N Ireland for over four decades (Shuttleworth and Lloyd 2009)

14. Discussion The fertility of a Catholic woman is estimated
as being 4% higher than a Protestant one
in the period concerned – there is little evidence of convergence
The convergence of fertility rates
between former Catholics and Protestants
would support them being combined as a secular group

15. Extremely or very religious
Discussion
The convergence of fertility rates between former Catholics and Protestants would support them being combined as a secular group
But the size of this group is small – 13% according to the 2001 Census
Religion is still strong – according to the NI Life and Times Survey
Year
Catholic (%)
Protestant (%)
Religious conviction
1998 10 13
Extremely or very religious 56 42
Somewhat religious
2008 12 17 60 44