Opportunity and Risks: A Strategic Conversation Ellen Nissenbaum Center on Budget and Policy Priorities nissenbaum@cbpp.org www.cbpp.org July 24, 2017

“Health Asks” for your Senators Oppose procedural vote (“motion to proceed”) If that vote succeeds, urge Republicans to oppose both “repeal and delay” and any “repeal and replace” plan(s) that increases the number of insured significantly, ends the Medicaid expansion and ends Medicaid as we know it If the procedural fails, encourage and expect bipartisan negotiations on “stabilizing the marketplace” to begin -- and urge Democrats and key Medicaid expansion state Republicans to keep Medicaid “off the table” Key targets

QUESTIONS?

Budget Resolution – Broad Vision vs. Reconciliation Instructions Budget resolution lays out a comprehensive ten-year fiscal policy roadmap Overall direction on entitlements, discretionary funding, taxes Budget resolution can also put in place a fast-track legislative process that can be used for entitlement and tax changes In today’s partisan environment, “reconciliation instructions” reflect House’s legislative goals for this year Sharon

Broad Vision is Harsh $4.4 trillion in entitlement cuts over 10 years $1.5 trillion in Medicaid & other health programs (excl Medicare) Larger cuts than AHCA $487 billion in Medicare $150 billion in SNAP Cuts 20% over 10 years Cuts are deeper in latter half of decade $200+ billion in Pell and Student Loans Eliminates ~$80 billion in entitlement funding for Pell $500 billion in unspecified cuts to “income security” programs (i.e., SSI, TANF, EITC, Child Tax Credit, Foster Care) $700 billion in unrealistic savings from “improper payments”

Fast-Track “Reconciliation Process” House budget includes reconciliation instructions Requires at least $203 billion in entitlement cuts Committees required to find cuts include those w. low-income programs: Ways and Means: $52 billion Energy and Commerce: $20 billion Agriculture: $10 billion Education & Workforce: $20 billion Likely low-income programs targets: SNAP, Medicaid, EITC/CTC, Social Services Block Grant,, Student Loans, SSI, TANF (maybe others…) Tax bill to be included in reconciliation bill Allows entitlement cuts to pay for tax cuts, which could bid up cuts

The Push on “Work” Tremendous pressure from Freedom Caucus and other Republicans on “work” – aka work requirements When they say “work requirements” beware: In SNAP, often means making already harsh 3-month time limit on childless adults even harsher In other programs, often means adding requirements that people work or participate in a work program to get benefits, but their “work requirements” are often unworkable If Republicans were serious about work, they would Increase rather than cut funding for job training Invest in child care Remember: many on Medicaid, housing subsidies and/or SNAP do work, or are between jobs -- so who is the real target here?  

Goal, strategy, and tactics GOAL: Stop the House budget resolution STRATEGY: Strong and swift response against the resolution, followed by a drumbeat of opposition TACTICS: Direct contact with members of Congress and staff Earned media Analysis of the budget and what it means for your state Social media Events Louisa

Asks for members of Congress: House For House Republicans (especially moderates): Oppose the budget resolution Louisa

Asks for members of Congress: Senate For Senate Republicans: Express your opposition to the House budget resolution publicly and to leadership Work to ensure that the Senate budget resolution: does not establish a fast-track process to cut entitlements does not allow entitlement cuts to help offset cost of tax cuts requires that tax legislation is revenue neutral Express your support for non-defense investments and work toward a bipartisan agreement to reduce or eliminate sequestration cuts in NDD with equal relief between non- defense and defense priorities Louisa

QUESTIONS?

EITC/CTC Why these 2 programs are at greater risk Reconciliation Tax reform New mega threat to EITC (“program integrity”) CTC dynamics (SSN for the child) Prioritization problem EITC – not childless adults CTC – not yet poorest families Don’t support “bad trade-off” deal

Trump and House GOP Tax Plans Heavily Skewed Toward Wealthy

Working-Family Tax Credits Help at Every Stage of Life

QUESTIONS?

Ellen Nissenbaum Center on Budget and Policy Priorities nissenbaum@cbpp.org www.cbpp.org