WHEN CHINA RULES THE WORLD MARTIN JACQUES International Week 2013, University of Alberta , Edmonton, 28 January 2013

Martin Jacques, When China Rules the World: the End of the Western World and the Rise of a New Global Order

Share of Global Consumption % Martin Jacques, When China Rules the World: the End of the Western World and the Rise of a New Global Order

Percentage share of total trade with China Martin Jacques, When China Rules the World: the End of the Western World and the Rise of a New Global Order

China Development Bank and China Export-Import Bank gave loans of more than $110bn to other developing countries in 2009 and 2010. The equivalent institutions of the World Bank made loan commitments of $100.3bn. Martin Jacques, When China Rules the World: the End of the Western World and the Rise of a New Global Order

Percentage of China’s Total Trade in Renminbi The renminbi currently accounts for 9% of China’s total trade. This compares with 0.25% for the first half of 2009, before policymakers launched the cross-border renminbi trade settlement scheme.

Martin Jacques, When China Rules the World: the End of the Western World and the Rise of a New Global Order

China’s share of global GDP in 2030 1820 1870 1913 1950 1973 2000 2010 2020 2030 South 70.3 53.1 42.1 39.5 39.9 43 52.4 60.5 66.9 Asian 56.5 36.1 22.2 15.3 15.8 29.2 40.9 49.1 58.2 developing China 33 17.1 8.8 4.6 4.6 11.8 20.7 28.9 33.4 India 16.1 12.2 7.5 4.2 3.1 5.2 8 12.2 18.6 Russia 5.4 7.5 8.5 9.6 9.4 2.1 2.4 2.7 3 Brazil 0.4 0.6 0.7 1.7 2.5 2.7 2.6 3.6 5.1 North 29.7 46.9 57.9 60.5 60.1 57 47.6 39.5 33.1 US 1.8 8.9 18.9 27.3 22.1 21.9 18.4 16.7 15.1 EU 23.3 32 35.8 27.1 27.1 21.5 18.1 15.7 13.1 Japan 3 2.3 2.6 3 7.8 7.2 5.4 4.4 3.2 China/US 18.3 1.9 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.7 2.2 Hu Angang Martin Jacques, When China Rules the World: the End of the Western World and the Rise of a New Global Order

(North America, EU, Japan) (China, developing world) Martin Jacques, When China Rules the World: the End of the Western World and the Rise of a New Global Order

Share of Global GDP in 2030: Regional Breakdown Other 2% Other asian developing 6% Japan 3% EU 13% China 34% US 15% Brazil 5% Russia 3% India 19% Martin Jacques, When China Rules the World: the End of the Western World and the Rise of a New Global Order

Boundary of the Qin Dynasty at its Greatest Extent, c. 206BC Martin Jacques, When China Rules the World: the End of the Western World and the Rise of a New Global Order

Boundary of the Han Dynasty at its Greatest Extent, 141-87BC Martin Jacques, When China Rules the World: the End of the Western World and the Rise of a New Global Order

Martin Jacques, When China Rules the World: the End of the Western World and the Rise of a New Global Order

Martin Jacques, When China Rules the World: the End of the Western World and the Rise of a New Global Order

Relatively or extremely satisfied with government Martin Jacques, When China Rules the World: the End of the Western World and the Rise of a New Global Order

The Great Paradigm Shift: the Challenge Facing the West “Since we got there first, we think we have the inside track on the modern condition, and our natural tendency is to universalize from our own experience… [He]has seen fit to characterize the West as the most provincial of all great contemporary civilizations. Never have Westerners had to take other peoples’ views of us really seriously. Nor, like the representatives of all other great cultures, have we been compelled to take fundamental stock of our own culture, deliberately dismantle large portions of it , and put it back together again in order to survive…”   Paul A. Cohen Martin Jacques, When China Rules the World: the End of the Western World and the Rise of a New Global Order

Martin Jacques, When China Rules the World: the End of the Western World and the Rise of a New Global Order