Mission Briefing on the World Drug Report 2012

Features of the Report Slim More data, tables, maps on the web and annexed CD Two chapters: Recent statistics and trend analysis of illicit drug markets The Contemporary drug problem: characteristics, patterns and driving factors

….but changes below the surface….. No significant change in global status quo on drug use and health consequences Opium production returned to high levels in 2011 after the disease of opium poppy in Afghanistan in 2010 ….but changes below the surface….. Prevalence of HIV: 20% of IDU Prevalence of Hepatitis C: about 50% Prevalence of Hepatitis B: 15% Total number of deaths: 99,000-253,000 in 2010, similar to 2009 Cannabis continues to be the most used drug at 2.6-5% (119-224 ml) ATS: 0.3-1.2% (14-52ML) Opioids: 0.6-0.8 (26-36 ml), half are opiates users (13-21ml) Cocaine: 0.3-0.4 (13-19ml) Ecstasy: 0.2-0.8 (10-28ml)

Opiate Market: one year after the opium crop failure in Afghanistan

An apparent imbalance in global supply and demand of Opiates Underestimation of the global level of opiate consumption? Asia and Africa account for 70% of the estimated global number of opiates use, but they lack reliable data Increased law enforcement activities? Expansion of the raw opium market?

Cocaine: Shift in producing countries translated into a reduction in North America and a shift in European countries Number of seizures cases in Europe originating in coca producing countries

Cocaine: Emerging and expanding markets Cocaine seizures in selected South American countries Sub-regions with increasing cocaine seizures

Cannabis: herb and resin

Cannabis: Europe: a market in transition? Change in cannabis resin seizures 2001-2005/2006-2010 Main source countries of cannabis resin

Amphetamine-type stimulants seizures are stable in 2010 Source: Annual report questionnaire supplemented by other official sources. a Including seized amphetamine, “ecstasy”-type substances, methamphetamine, non-specified amphetamine-type stimulants, other stimulants and prescription stimulants. For the categories of other stimulants and prescription stimulants, seizures reported by weight or volume only are included.

Methamphetamine market increases Methamphetamine tablets seized in East and South-East Asia, 2008-2010 Global seizures: 45 tons 44 per cent increase over 2009 Reason: high seizures in Mexico, East and South-East Asia Higher than amphetamine seizures first time since 2006 Expansion in the European market Source: Based on data collected by the Drug Abuse Information Network for Asia and the Pacific, including data for Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, China, Indonesia, Japan, the Lao’s People Democratic Republic, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, the Republic of Korea, Singapore, Thailand and Viet Nam.

Amphetamine market declines Amphetamine seized worldwide and in the Near and Middle East/South-West Asia, 2000-2010 Global seizures: 19 tons 42 per cent decline Reason: large decline in seizures in the Near and Middle East and South-West Asia. Europe: seizures fall but number of seized amphetamine laboratories rises (44 per cent) Source: Annual report questionnaire supplemented by other official sources.

“Ecstasy” market recovers “Ecstasy” seizures, by region,2001-2010 Global seizures: 3.8 tons Increasing seizures in :East and South-East Asia (31 per cent), Oceania, Europe (seizures double) United States: increase in availability and use Indication of polydrug manufacture, “ecstasy” manufacturing in illicit methamphetamine laboratories Source: Annual report questionnaire supplemented by other officia sources.

New Threat: New psychoactive substances Mimic effects of illicit stimulants (e.g. “ecstasy”, amphetamines) Not controlled by the United Nations drug control treaties Reported in: Africa, Asia, Australia, Europe, New Zealand, North America Ketamine, piperazines (BZP), synthetic cathinones (mephedrone), synthetic cannabinoids (‘spice’), plant-based substances (Kratom)

The contemporary illicit drug problem What are its fundamental characteristics ? How have its patterns shifted over time ? Which factors shape its evolution ?

The effect of the drug control system on the level of use

The theory : the effect of drug control on the supply and demand equilibrium ILLICIT PRODUCT (controlled) Equilibrium LICIT PRODUCT Source: UNODC, World Drug Report 2012, June 2012

Global opium production in metric tons, 1906/1907 - 2010 42,600 -78% 16,600 9,300 World population: 1900: 1.6 billion 2010: 6.9 billion Sources: Report of the International Opium Commission, Shanghai, China, Feb. 1909, Vol. II, INCB, Narcotics Report, Narcotic Drugs: Estimated World Requirements for 2012 – Statistics for 2010 and previous years, UNODC, A Century of International Drug Control (2009), UNODC, World Drug Report 2011 and previous years.

Prevalence of use of licit and illicit psychoactive substances A L C O H O L T O B A C C O I L L I C I T D R U G S

Deaths related to the use of alcohol, tobacco and illicit drugs Number of annual deaths related to substance abuse 2.3 millions 5.1 0.2 million As a percent of all deaths 3.6 % 8.7 % 0.4 % Source: World Health Organization, Global Health Risks: Mortality and Burden of Disease Attributable to Selected Major Risks (Geneva, 2009).

An age containment effect?

United States: age distribution of past month use of licit and illicit psychoactive substances, 2010 ALCOHOL TOBACCO ILLICIT DRUGS Source: United States, Department of Health and Human Services, Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration Results from the 2010 National Survey on Drug Use and Health: Detailed Tables (Rockville, Maryland, September 2011).

Germany: prevalence of licit and illicit psychoactive substances, by age group*, 2009 (Index: age 18-24=100) ALCOHOL TOBACCO CANNABIS Source: Based on data from A. Pabst and others, “Substanzkonsum und substanzbezogene Störungen: Ergebnisse des Epidemiologischen Suchtsurveys 2009”, Sucht – Zeitschrift für Wissenschaft und Praxis, vol. 56, No. 5 (2010). * Data for prevalence of alcohol and tobacco use based on past-month use; data for prevalence of cannabis use based on annual use.

Age distribution of khat users in Yemen and cannabis users in the USA Source: World Bank, “Yemen towards qat demand reduction”, report No. 39738-YE (June 2007); United States, Department of Health and Human Services, Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration, Results from the 2010 National Survey on Drug Use and Health: Detailed Tables (Rockville, Maryland, September 2011).

How is the drug problem likely to evolve in the future?

OUTLOOK the likely the possible the unknown based on demographic predictions (population growth, urbanization, age structure, gender etc): Stable prevalence rates will bring another 65 millions users by 2050 Stabilization in developed countries Increase in developing countries the possible partly based on trends observed in recent years Decline of main problem drugs – heroin and cocaine No decline in cannabis use – stabilization/decline in some major markets but increases in emerging markets Some increases in ATS, diverted prescription drugs and (synthetic) substances not currently under international control the unknown

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