Mark Setzler, High Point University Religiosity and the Success of Women Candidates in Congressional Primaries Mark Setzler, High Point University

Why study religion to better understand Congressional under-representation? Where does this study of religion fit into the research on female candidate success? Stereotypes, “friendly” districts, and ambition? Most ignore religion What does the state-level data tell us? Political culture of states and religion-specific studies tell us that religious matters But we don’t know anything about religion and congressional districts where partisanship and other factors may matter more Why are primaries different, and why might religion matter more in them?

Why might more religious districts have more of a gender gap in Congress? How politically relevant are religious groups in electoral politics?: EP’s made up 23% of the 2012 American electorate; Catholics, 25%, Weekly religious service attenders, 42% How do the most active religious congregations model gender equality in leadership? How does this impact what they are asking for? Do the attitudes and policy preferences of adherents with respect to women’s issues make them less receptive to women candidates? Does the fact that women candidates find it more difficult to successfully use religious code hamper their effectiveness as candidates in more religious communities?

Religiosity, Partisanship, and Gender Stereotypes

Hypotheses Hypothesis 1: More religious districts, in general, will be less supportive of women candidates. Hypothesis 2: The impact of religiosity will vary by religious tradition: Variation in Catholicism and evangelical Protestantism will most impact the candidacies and success of candidates Hypothesis 3: Partisanship will perhaps be a mitigating factor, but it is hard to specify how in advance -Is there more of a religious effect in Rep. primaries because of their more religious constituencies and issue prioritization? -Is there more of a religious effect in Dem. primaries because of what happens when women candidates engage in “God talk”?

Data and Measurement: Dependent Variables Sources: Center for American Women and Politics & FEC data for the 2006-2010 Congressional primaries Three DVs: (1) Whether any women ran in the primary, (2) The combined female vote share, (3) whether a woman was nominated Three samples examine: (1) All candidates in the district (2) Democratic candidates (3) Republican candidates Some key baseline statistics: (1) 45% of CDs had a women candidate: 27% of Dem Primaries and 26% of Rep Primaries (2) 29% of CDs had a woman win the D or R primary; 20% of Dem. primaries, 11% of Rep. primaries

Data and Methods: Independent Variables CD-level Religiosity: 2000, 2010US Religion Census – A county-level survey by the Assn. of Statisticians of Amer. Rel. Bodies The sample: Roman Catholics = 19%; Evan. Prot. = 16%; Mainstream Prot.= 7%%; other =7% Unaffiliated = 51%, which is about the same as self- reported data looking at religious practice Controls: Demographics: (1) %Coll, (2) Med. income, (3) %Latino, (4) %Af Americans Political culture: (1) Partisan voting index, (2) Med. age, (3) %Rural, (4) Conservative policy preference index Opportunity structures for non-traditional candidates: Incumbent running, number of candidates

Percentage of Congressional Districts that had Women Run, Nominated, & Elected: High vs. Low Religiosity (Frequencies with no controls)

The Probability that District Had Women Run, Nominated, & Elected: By Level of Religiosity for Different Denominations (Logistic regression)

The Probability that District Had Women Run and Nominated vs The Probability that District Had Women Run and Nominated vs. Republican Primaries (Logistic regression)

Conclusions The “women friendly districts” literature should include measures of religion Specific religions are linked to these patterns, rather than religiosity in general, so our studies need to reflect this in controls Religion has a larger impact Democratic primaries. Some key questions for future research: Will we see these patterns at the individual level? Do EP and Catholic voters discriminate against women candidates when party labels are absent (in primaries or nonpartisan local elections)?