1. Oliver, Ch. 4 “Systematic versus Idiosyncratic Factors in Local Elections”

2. Oliver, Ch. 4 Population Size and Electoral Success
A smaller population size tends to be more advantageous for incumbents than challengers
For city council members, it depends on the size of the constituency within the city
Council members are more likely to lose in district elections than in at-large

3. Oliver, Ch. 4
Hard to generalize about so many different local elections with unique sets of candidates, constituents, and political circumstances
Incumbency is the most powerful predictor of electoral success (patronage, media attention, existing lists of supporters, official activities)

4. Oliver, Ch. 4
Incumbents aren’t generally affected by population size in cities with at-large elections and council-manager governments
They’re more affected in places with mayor-council governments and district elections

5. Oliver, Ch. 4
Greater concentrations of executive power hinder an incumbent city council member’s re-election success
Local governments exhibit a large range in bias; can the incumbent get the beneficiaries of bias to turn out to vote?
Machine politics are less common in most local elections

6. Oliver, Ch. 4
Considering Size, Scope, and Bias in Relation to Each Other
For council members, they’re more likely to lose in less affluent, larger places with district elections, majors, and larger numbers of city services, employees, and homeowners.

7. Oliver, Ch. 5 “What Influences Local Voters’ Electoral Choices?”

8. Oliver, Ch. 5
Not uncommon for voters to decide between two or more entirely unknown candidates
How much do people know about the candidates they’re choosing from?
On what basis are they making their electoral choices?

9. Oliver, Ch. 5
Far more likely to base votes on specific issues or incumbent performance, not partisanship or candidate charisma
What Presidential Elections Can (and Can’t) Tell Us About Local Elections
Factors that drive presidential elections may not be relevant in local ones

10. Oliver, Ch. 5
Partisanship – many local elections are nonpartisan, and partisanship is less important in municipalities of smaller scope
Rational choice theory – voters vote according to their policy preferences; but most Americans know very little about public affairs
Heuristics – rules of thumb that help an uninformed person make a reasonable choice

11. Oliver, Ch. 5
In presidential elections, party and retrospective evaluations of incumbents (how well does the voter think the incumbent did the job?)
In local elections, people are more motivated by their individual concerns that perception of how well society’s doing
One of the most consistent predictors of local candidates in larger city elections is the race of the voter and the candidate; unclear how much this affects local elections in smaller areas

12. Oliver, Ch. 5 Impact of issues on local voting is hard to predict
Limited-scope governments have fewer issues to be concerned with
Differential turnout among the politically engaged might make issues more important

13. Oliver, Ch. 5
Average voter in a local election has a high level of interest and information about local affairs
It should be expected that issues become more important as scope and bias of local government increases
Survey of suburban voters in five states after local elections in 2004 and 2005