Sulfate Attribution Methods Gary Kleiman NESCAUM/MANE-VU MANE-VU SIP Planning Meeting June 12, 2006

M-V Contribution Assessment Empirical data analysis methods exploit observed relationships between emissions, meteorology and observations Trajectory models/dispersion models use mimimal chemistry but link source and receptor locations via meteorology Factor Analysis/Source Apportionment techniques determine optimal combinations of various sources which match observed pollution Chemical Transport Models attempt to fully integrate knowledge about emissions, meteorology, atmospheric physics and chemistry to simulate ambient concentrations

Contributions to Regional Haze in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic United States Available in draft form – comments through Friday REMSAD with SO2 tagging CALPUFF with 2 types of Meteorology Trajectory methods (Incremental Probability and Cluster Weighted Probability) Residence time probability x emissions Emissions/distance Plus conceptual model, monitoring strategy, baseline conditions, emission inventory, and more…

Contribution Assessment Analysis Domain 10 9 11 8 Black : Run 1 Red : Run 2 Blue : Run 3

Contributions by State Brigantine

CALPUFF x 2

Q/d Methodology Q d Impact = C x Assumes the SO4 deposited at receptor is proportional to the ratio Q/d: Q is the source emission rate, d is the distance from source to receptor, and C is a constant determined by wind sector d Mass Unit Time Q =

Example: Lye Brook Receptor Lye Brook Wilderness 144-225o C=1.46E-4 226-240o C=1.03E-4 241-299o C=5.81E-5 300-360o C=2.70E-5 90o CALPUFF data used for linear regression 4 Wind Sectors fitted to R>0.90 Relative strength of impact varies by factor of 5 between sectors 0o 180o Regression Analysis: x-axis is Q/d where Q is given, d is calculated y-axis is Impact, given by CALPUFF model from Paul Washinsky 270o

Residence Time Sulfur Emissions S State Source Contribution = X

Methodology Residence Time grid and SO2 emissions grid do not overlap Residence Times of Endpoints1 in Chesapeake Bay Region Residence Time grid and SO2 emissions grid do not overlap ArcView calculated product of an RT pt. and closest SO2 data pt. 1/4deg as cutoff distance 1Darker dots indicate larger residence times = Residence Time = SO2 Emission

Sulfate Contribution by RPO ACAD-ME BRIG-NJ LYBR-VT SHEN-VA

2002 Average SO4 Contributions (by state)

Example: 2018 Contributions Ratio of 2018/2002

Proximity-Based Clusters Best and Worst Days Acadia Mohawk Mountain Lyebrook Highest Sulfate Sulfate= 3.19 Bext= 64.16 PM =8.19 OC = 1.91 Sulfate= 5.10 Bext= 91.95 PM =11.78 OC = 3.19 Sulfate= 3.92 Bext= 68.67 PM =9.11 OC = 1.72 Lowest Sulfate Sulfate= 2.01 Bext= 41.43 PM =5.35 OC =1.50 Sulfate= 1.40 Bext= 30.83 PM =4.09 OC = 1.04 Sulfate= 1.30 Bext= 25.92 PM =3.62 OC = 0.90

Proximity-based Clusters Acadia 2000-2004 Trajectories CT(1)= acad02 08 04 15.dat Cluster 2 CT(2)= acad01 10 25 09.dat Cluster 3 CT(3)= acad00 07 23 09.dat Cluster 4 CT(4)= acad01 08 02 12.dat Cluster 5 CT(5)= acad02 08 14 03.dat Original Cluster Original Cluster Original Cluster Original Cluster Original Cluster Original Cluster Rotated Coordinate Rotated Coordinate Rotated Coordinate Rotated Coordinate Rotated Coordinate Rotated Coordinate Sulfate= 2.45 Bext= 50.35 PM =6.54 OC = 1.57 Sulfate= 3.14 Bext= 59.88 PM =7.92 OC = 1.52 Sulfate= 1.79 Bext= 39.91 PM =5.42 OC =1.49 Sulfate= 1.40 Bext= 30.83 PM =4.09 OC = 1.04 Sulfate= 3.13 Bext= 57.88 PM =7.80 OC = 1.58

Proximity-based Clusters Acadia 2000-2004 Trajectories CT(6)= acad01 10 22 15.dat Cluster 7 CT(7)= acad01 09 10 21.dat Cluster 8 CT(8)= acad03 06 01 00EDAS.dat Cluster 9 CT(9)= acad04 08 04 06EDAS.dat Cluster 10 CT(10)= acad01 07 18 21.dat Original Cluster Original Cluster Original Cluster Original Cluster Original Cluster Original Cluster Rotated Coordinate Rotated Coordinate Rotated Coordinate Rotated Coordinate Rotated Coordinate Rotated Coordinate Sulfate= 3.19 Bext= 64.16 PM =8.19 OC = 1.91 Sulfate= 1.70 Bext= 33.20 PM =4.25 OC = 0.81 Sulfate= 2.21 Bext= 44.48 PM =6.11 OC =1.52 Sulfate= 2.10 Bext= 44.05 PM =5.95 OC = 1.77 Sulfate= 1.41 Bext= 28.96 PM =3.78 OC = 0.89

Lyebrook Cluster Weighted Probability Aggregated by State

Comparison of Techniques (Lyebrook) IP500 IP1000 CWP Norm (RotCoor CWP) CWP Regular

Source Models and Receptor Models Agree!

Attribution/Consultation Average REMSAD Q/d CALPUFF (VT) CALPUFF (MD) E x RTP CANADA MA PA OH ME NY IN IL WV MI NH CENRAP MD KY GA NC VA NJ WI DE TN SC AL CT VT RI MS DC Acadia Who do you want to consult?

Acadia Uncertainty?

Attribution/Consultation Average REMSAD Q/d CALPUFF (VT) CALPUFF (MD) E x RTP PA OH WV CANADA MD VA NY NC NJ IN KY DE IL GA MI MA CENRAP TN SC AL WI CT NH DC ME MS RI VT Brigantine Who do you want to consult?

Attribution/Consultation Average REMSAD Q/d CALPUFF (VT) CALPUFF (MD) E x RTP PA CANADA OH NY IN WV MI CENRAP KY MD IL MA GA VA NC WI NJ NH TN VT AL SC DE CT MS ME RI DC Lye Brook Who do you want to consult?

Lye Brook Uncertainty?

Attribution/Consultation Average REMSAD Q/d CALPUFF (VT) E x RTP CANADA OH PA NY IN NH MA MI WV KY IL CENRAP ME NJ WI NC GA VA MD TN AL VT SC CT DE RI MS DC Great Gulf Who do you want to consult?

Attribution/Consultation Average REMSAD Q/d CALPUFF (VT) E x RTP CANADA ME PA OH MA NY IN IL MI WV NH GA KY MD NC CENRAP VA WI NJ TN AL DE SC VT CT RI MS DC Moosehorn/ Roosevelt- Campobello Who do you want to consult?

Moosehorn Uncertainty?

Contribution by Month Acadia NP Lye Brook Wilderness

Contribution by Month Brigantine NWR Shenandoah NP

Contribution Day-by-Day August 9-16, 2002 3 sites, 3 influences