What We Know and Don’t Know About Cycling Safety – ask the academics 15th Nov 2017 Road Safety GB Dr Rachel Aldred, University of Westminster Dr James Woodcock, University of Cambridge

Physical Activity

Physical Activity and All-Cause Mortality 4 hours cycling per week 2 hours walking per week

Content Risks experienced and posed by cyclists Cycle safety trends Factors affecting cycling risk and safety

How dangerous is cycling? How dangerous are cyclists? Data from Stats19 and NTS

Feleke et al, 2017, using coroners’ reports and HES data Risk of death walking, cycling, or driving, by age, by distance (incl. falls), men <70s Feleke et al, 2017, using coroners’ reports and HES data http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214140517301457

Feleke et al, 2017, using coroners’ reports and HES data Risk of death walking, cycling, or driving, by age, by distance (incl. falls), women <70s Feleke et al, 2017, using coroners’ reports and HES data http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214140517301457

Comparing pedestrian and cyclist injury risk by distance (2006-15, Stats19) Risk of death for cyclists versus pedestrians: 0.92 Risk of KSI for cyclists versus pedestrians: 1.90 Risk of all injury for cyclists versus pedestrians: 2.62

All injuries with known striking mode: Stats19 2005-2015 pedestrian1 cyclist motorcycle bus light goods heavy goods car/taxi Fatal 26 49 335 774 1315 2834 9592 Serious 848 1427 4038 5420 12261 9982 138219 Slight 7620 7936 24608 36376 106917 73455 1228664 1 only included if pedestrian also injured

Pedestrian injuries with known striking vehicle, Stats19 2005-2015 striking mode   cyclist motorcycle light goods bus heavy goods car/taxi Fatal 29 167 323 369 561 3060 Serious 674 1972 2636 2656 1150 39106 Slight 2464 7435 9029 9560 2436 143750 NB ped ped collisions are not included in Stats19

Cyclist injuries with known striking vehicle, Stats19 2005-2015 striking mode pedestrian cyclist motorcycle bus light goods heavy goods car/taxi Fatal 2 9 16 51 83 230 579 Serious 121 323 355 597 1628 797 18561 Slight 787 877 2007 3123 7898 2084 113006 1 only included if pedestrian also injured

1 Pedestrian-pedestrian not recorded Pedestrian & cyclist fatalities; percentage with each known striking vehicle 1 Pedestrian-pedestrian not recorded

Pedestrian injuries: self-report data (NTS 2007-14) Aldred, forthcoming

Cycle safety trends Key issues & data

Cycle KSI numbers, London boroughs, 2005-15 Source: Stats19

Cycle KSI rates (per commuter), London boroughs, 2005-15 Source: Stats19, Census 2011 cycling volume calculation via PCT.bike

Change in risks by mode, 1991-2011 Aldred et al, in press, Injury Prevention (DfT traffic data, Census data)

Change in risk since 2006, Stats19 data

Feleke et al, 2017, using coroners’ reports and HES data Fatalities Feleke et al (2017) compared change in walking, cycling and driving fatalities per hour’s use, between 2010–12 vs. 2007–09 Found statistically significant improvement for male drivers, female drivers, male pedestrians, female pedestrians, and male cyclists – but not for female cyclists Feleke et al, 2017, using coroners’ reports and HES data http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214140517301457

What keeps cyclists safe and what puts them at risk? Safety in numbers, infrastructure, motor vehicle speeds and volumes

Safety in Numbers: the Background Reasonably consistent evidence from many studies1 Applies to pedestrians, cyclists, and motor vehicles Some evidence at individual level (time spent cycling) But Evidence exclusively from high income countries Evidence using robust methods only cross-sectional Many studies poorly controlled for motor vehicle volume Poor/no measure of street environment 1Elvik & Bjornskau: Safety-in-numbers: A systematic review and meta-analysis of evidence. Safety Science 2015

Change in cycling risk 2001-11, 202 British local authority areas, by change in cycling Aldred et al, Contextualising Safety in Numbers: A longitudinal investigation into change in cycling safety in Britain, 1991-2001 and 2001-2011. Injury Prevention 2017 (accepted)

Safety in numbers: route-level analysis for London Aldred et al, forthcoming, based on CYNEMON and other route network data for London

Danger in (motor vehicle) numbers, London Aldred et al, forthcoming, based on CYNEMON and other route network data for London

Impact of infrastructure on hospital attended cycling injuries Teschke et al 2012, http://ajph.aphapublications.org/doi/full/10.2105/AJPH.2012.300762

Conclusions More walking and cycling can substantially benefit public health Motor vehicles are the main threat to cyclists and pedestrians, with this a major barrier to cycling uptake in UK. Fatality rates for pedestrians and cyclists are similar. Rates for cycling injuries are higher. Measured via serious injury rates, cycling got riskier in recent years, while driving and walking got safer. Interventions that separate cyclists from motor vehicles, or substantially reduce motor vehicle volumes and speeds, help. Safety in numbers works at route level – so interventions that attract more cyclists will also keep each cyclist safer.

Publications cited Aldred, R. et al, 2017, Contextualising Safety in Numbers: A longitudinal investigation into change in cycling safety in Britain, 1991-2001 and 2001-2011, accepted for publication in Injury Prevention, available on request Aldred, R. et al, forthcoming, Cycling injuries in London: the impact of motor vehicle and cycle volumes, and road characteristics including speed limits, under peer review, available on request Aldred, R., forthcoming, Inequalities in self-report road injury risk in Britain: a new analysis of National Travel Survey data, focusing on pedestrian injuries, under review, available on request Feleke, R. et al, 2017, Comparative fatality risk for different travel modes by age, sex, and deprivation, Journal of Transport and Health, available at http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214140517301457 Teschke, K. et al, 2012, Route Infrastructure and the Risk of Injuries to Bicyclists: A Case-Crossover Study, American Journal of Public Health, available at http://ajph.aphapublications.org/doi/full/10.2105/AJPH.2012.300762

What We Know and Don’t Know About Cycling Safety – ask the academics 15th Nov 2017 Road Safety GB Dr Rachel Aldred, University of Westminster Dr James Woodcock, University of Cambridge

ped injuries by cyc by age of ped [0,20) [20,40) [40,60) [60,80) [80,110) <NA> Fatal 1 4 10 12 Serious 104 137 147 201 70 15 Slight 624 644 607 368 117

Feleke et al, 2017, using coroners’ reports and HES data Cycling fatalities by time spent travelling, rate ratios 2010–12 vs. 2007–09, by gender 5.00 1.00 .20 Males Females <17 17-20 21-49 50-69 70+ All ages Feleke et al, 2017, using coroners’ reports and HES data http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214140517301457

Comparing pedestrian and cyclist injury risk by distance (2006-15, Stats19)