Secondary PowerPoint 7: Opinion Polling in Elections

Have you ever taken part in a poll or survey? What was it for? What was the process?

What is an opinion poll? An opinion poll is a question or a series of questions designed to measure the public’s views on a specific topic or several issues. Public opinion can change from one day to the next, so the results present a ‘snapshot’ of views and attitudes at a given point in time. 3

Types of Polls There are two main types of polling used in elections: Issue polls focus on assessing voters’ feelings on the issues of the campaign and proposed policies Preference polls (also called horse race polls) report on which leader, party or candidate is favoured at the time 4

The Accuracy of Polls A poll only uses a sample of the population and therefore it will never be 100% accurate. There are many aspects that affect the validity of a poll: Methods for selecting respondents The number of individuals surveyed (sample size) The wording of a question When respondents are surveyed (timing) The attitude of who is asking the questions The margin of error describes how close we can reasonably expect a survey result to reflect the views of the entire population. 5

Margin of Error Example Insights West conducted an online poll in lead up to the B.C. election about parties and leaders. The survey was conducted from April 5-8, 2017, among 801 adults. The margin of error was +/- 3.5 percentage points with a confidence level of 95%. This means each party could be up or down 3.5%, 19 times out of 20 The lead by the NDP is not large enough to be conclusive and it is even possible that the Liberals have more support Note: This poll has a 3 per cent margin of area 6

How do you think opinion polling can influence the decisions made by political parties and voters?

The methods for opinion polling have changed in recent years. In the past, polls were conducted by telephone, or by sending interviewers to speak with people in the street or at home.

The Evolution of Polling With advances in technology, polling has become easier, faster and less expensive as polls are now conducted online, through social media or by mobile phone. These polls can be hard to judge accurately and are not always entirely representative of the population, as participants tend to select themselves to participate, rather than through random or targeted selection. 9

Polling during election campaigns Media groups often asks pollsters to conduct polls on behalf of them so that they can share the views of the public and to encourage discussion during the campaign. Political parties also conduct internal polls to help them make strategic decisions, such as focusing on particular issues or concentrating on specific electoral districts. 10

Canadian and B.C. Pollsters Abacus Data – www.abacusdata.ca Ekos Research Associates – www.ekos.com Environics Research Group – www.environics.ca Forum Research – www.forumresearch.com Harris/Decima – www.harrisdecima.ca Insights West – www.insightswest.com Ipsos Reid – www.ipsos.ca Mainstreet Research – www.mainstreetresearch.ca Nanos Research – www.nanosresearch.com ThreeHundredandEight.com – www.threehundredeight.com 11

CBC will be tracking various horse race polls during the election and calculating vote and seat projections on an ongoing basis. Link: http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-2017-poll-tracker-1.4054593

Debrief Why is it important to know the validity of a poll? Have the results of an opinion poll impacted how you feel towards an issue or candidate? Do you think polls impact the results of an election? Why or why not? How can polls have a positive or negative impact on voters?