Academic Director - Energy Academy Europe Driving Energy transitions = rapid innovation. Vienna Energy Forum: Policy & Innovation for Energy and Climate Change: achieving a low-carbon society 9th April, 2017. Prof. Dr. André P.C. Faaij Academic Director - Energy Academy Europe Distinguished Professor Energy System Analysis – University of Groningen

Energy system transformation… [GEA/van Vuuren et al CoSust, 2012]

GHG emissions per key economic sector and related to income/development levels.

(Required) changes in annual investment flows to enable the global energy transition. IPCC, AR5

Important notion for in energy science & policy: A.o. IEA (WEO) concluded multiple times that : Yes, 450 ppm pathways requires massive investments… …but will lead to rapid cost reductions of RET’s and energy efficient technologies… …and less pressure on fossil fuel supplies… …leading to an overall lower cost and more secure (global) energy supply!

RE costs have declined in the past further declines expected in the future But fossil fuel based energy technologies (and supplies) learn as wel… [IPCC-SRREN, 2011] Learning curve for power generation technologies, historic data and POLES WETO reference projection up to 2030.

Factors influencing learning/ unit costs Example for onshore wind farms: Improved siting of wind farms (Learning by doing) Development of specific components (gear boxes, generators) and regulating mechanisms (stall/ pitch regulation) (R&D) Mass production of wind turbines (economies-of-scale) Upscaling of wind turbines (upscaling)

‘Learning investments’ – the cost of learning Source: IEA, 2000

Generic capital cost trend for early commercial units of a new power plant technology Source: EPRI

Summarizing remarks Technological learning is essential to make many renewable energy and energy efficient technologies available and competitive in the coming decades. Progress in various fields (including solar and wind energy) has been exceeding expectations in the past years, leading to rapid cost decline and accelerating market penetration. The much desired phenomenon is not fully achieved in other key areas, such as biobased economy options, CCS, Industrial energy efficiency and other and not in all markets. Much can be learned from success stories in specific regions, countries and markets on how much desired progress on RDD&D (Research, Development, Demonstration & Deployment) can be achieved, in particular for developing regions and countries. Such insights and strategies are vital for accelerating the build up sustainable energy systems, sector and industry from regional to national level. Key is a strong interface between government, market players and knowledge infrastructure.