Industry information K Coetzee May 2017 Report presented at Milk SA members meeting 31 May 2017

Contents International economy International dairy situation SA economic situation SA dairy situation

Global economic growth and expected growth, 2010 – 2018* Source: IMF WEO update April 2017 * Projection

FAO food price indices, Jan 10 – Apr 17 Source: FAO, 2017

Global cow milk production, 2007 - 2015 Source: IDF, October 2016

CNIEL , February 2015, May 2017; EU, Australia, Uruguay = 3 months Milk production growth in major dairy exporting countries and South Africa, 2014 - 2017 . CNIEL , February 2015, May 2017; EU, Australia, Uruguay = 3 months

Per capita global dairy consumption and world population, 2005, 2008 - 2015 Source: IDF October 2016

GlobalDairytrade® Auction Sale price index Jan 99 – May 17 Source: gDt Index, 2017

International prices, Jan 10 – May 17 (US$/ton) Source: USDA, May 2017

International prices, Jan 10 – May 17 (Rand/ton) Source: USDA, May 17; Reserve Bank, 2017

Producer prices in selected countries, February 2017 Country   Feb-17 12 month moving average United States 39.77 35.26 Italy 38.77 36.91 Finland 35.10 34.63 Belgium 34.01 27.73 United Kingdom 33.59 26.99 New Zealand 33.53 30.34 Ireland 33.11 23.37 France 32.83 31.66 Germany 31.82 26.89 Denmark 31.33 25.03 Prices based on 4,2% fat; 3,4% protein. Prices in Euro/ 100 kg of milk USA Class III Source: LTO, April 2017

European producer price trends Source: LTO, April 2017;

International producer price indices* (Jan 12 – Feb 17) Source: USA Hoards Dairyman; New Zealand LTO, Uruguay Inale; SA MPO; Argentina, Brazil CLAL. * Indices based on own currencies.

SA economic activity, Jan 10 – Mar 17 Source: SA Reserve Bank, May 2017

SA economic growth, 2010 - 2016 Source: Stats SA May 2017

Consumer price inflation Jan 07 – Apr 17 Source: Stats SA, May 2017

Interest rates, Jan 08 – Apr 17 Source: Stats SA, SA Reserve Bank, April 17

Household income and debt, 1982 – 2016 Source: SA Reserve Bank, Apr 2017

Retail sales growth at constant 2012 prices, Jan 08 – Feb 17 Source: Stats SA, May 2017

Monthly raw milk purchases, Jan 2014– Apr 2017 Milk supply ( 000 Ton) 2011 = 2 712 2012 = 2 843 2013 = 2 906 2014 = 2 983 2015 = 3 173 2016 = 3 158 Source: 2013 – Feb 2017 Milk SA returns; Mar – Apr 17 , Milk SA estimates

Raw milk supply per day per month, Jan 2014 – Apr 17 Source: 2014, - Feb 2017 Milk SA returns; Mar – Apr 17 , Milk SA estimates

Calculated Milk: maize + soybean price ratio, Jan 03 – May 17 Source: MPO calculations; “Feed price” = 70% YM1, 30% Soy, Safex nearest month prices, Producer price MPO survey

Change in quantity sold Change in retail prices Percentage change in retail sales quantities for major dairy and other food products for the 12-month period from January 2016 to December 2016 compared to the period from January 2015 to December 2015 and the changes in prices from December 2015 to December 2016 Product Change in quantity sold Change in retail prices Pre-packaged cheese 10.8 16.1 Maas 9.2 7.9 Flavoured milk* 5.5 12.3 Yoghurt 3.7 10.4 Cream 13.5 Bread 3.2 22.1 Short-life juice 1.1 Coffee 0.6 11.5 Instant cereal -0.7 Margarine 13.4 Maize meal -1.8 40.1 Rice -2.0 12.0 Butter -2.1 28.0 Long life milk* 1.0 23.4 Fresh milk -3.9 19.7 Tea -4.6 28.9 Cream cheese -5.3 16.5 Source: SAMPRO based on Nielsen report

Changes in the quantities of retail sales of specific dairy products Sales in the month of December 2016 versus the sales in the December 2015 3 months from October 2016 to 3 months from October 2015 to 6 months from July 2016 to December 2016 6 months from July 2015 to December 2015 9 months from April 2016 to December 2016 April 2015 to December 2015 12 months from January 2016 to January 2015 to   percent Fresh Milk -4.4 -3.8 -4.0 -3.6 -3.9 UHT milk -26.7 -15.4 -8.4 -3.1 1.0 Flavoured milk -9.8 -3.3 0.9 5.5 Yoghurt -7.4 -4.3 -0.5 1.2 3.7 Maas 1.7 0.4 4.2 6.3 9.2 Pre-packaged cheese -2.2 7.8 9.5 10.9 10.8 Cream cheese -9.7 -7.9 -8.0 -7.1 -5.3 Butter -21.8 -6.8 -5.0 -2.1 Cream 5.7 2.5 1.6 2.3 Source: Nielsen supplied by SAMPRO

Changes in the average retail prices of specific dairy products   PRODUCT December 2016 versus November 2016  (1 month ago) September 2016 (3 months ago) June 2016 (6 months ago) March 2016 (9 months ago) December 2015 (12 months ago) June 2015 (18 months ago) December 2014  (24 months ago) Percent FRESH MILK 1.1 0.4 4.7 11.3 19.7 12.8 15.4 UHT MILK -1.0 -0.5 12.3 23.4 6.0 8.3 FLAVOURED MILK 0.0 3.2 2.8 10.3 11.4 18.3 YOGHURT -1.4 0.1 3.9 6.8 10.4 10.1 14.2 MAAS -2.6 5.6 7.9 5.2 5.0 PRE-PACKAGED CHEESE 1.2 3.0 8.6 16.1 7.5 13.5 CREAM CHEESE 4.2 3.4 7.8 16.8 16.5 12.4 20.5 BUTTER 4.0 8.2 23.8 28.0 31.6 41.0 CREAM 6.2 15.7 16.0 13.6 Source: Nielsen supplied by SAMPRO

Change in quantity sold Change in retail prices Percentage change in retail sales quantities for major dairy products for the 12-month period from April 2016 to March 2017 compared to the period from April 2015 to March 2016 and the changes in prices from March 2016 to March 2017 Product Change in quantity sold Change in retail prices Fresh milk -3.3 12.4 Long-life milk -2.1 13.2 Flavoured milk* -3.1 Yoghurt -0.5 9.3 Maas 4.0 7.9 Pre-packaged cheese 10.6 9.2 Cream cheese -8.4 17.8 Butter -4.4 26.7 Cream 1.3 12.1 Source: SAMPRO based on Nielsen report

Producer, processor and retail price indices, Jan 12 – Apr 17 Source: Stats SA

Cumulative net imports of dairy products, Jan 2012 – Mar 2017 Source: SARS as supplied by SAMPRO

Annual production + net imports, 2004 - 2016 Source: Milk SA, SAMPRO Note: Stock changes excluded BLNS excluded

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