HYDROCARE Actions & Activities Report and PP8 – Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany 2.1 Compilation of Meteorological Observations, 2.2 Analysis of Variability and Extremes and 2.3 Linking Observations, Global Analyses and Regional Climate Modeling Uwe Böhm, Friedrich-Wilhelm Gerstengarbe, Hermann Österle, Peter C. Werner HYDROCARE 2nd Assembly of Partners 27th – 28th June, 2006, Bratislava, Slovakia

Action 2.1 – Compilation of Meteorological Observations Working Schedule Specific Task 2006 2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Setup of a common list of the requested parameters and length of time series supply of meteorological data from the project participants to PIK’s data base Quality control and homogeneity analysis Filling of gaps and homogenisation of time series Data sets update and technology provision Deliverables Homogenized data records, updated station data set (to be delivered starting in Dec. 2006) Action 2.1. Compilation of common meteorological database for the CADSES region HYDROCARE 26-28.06.2006, Bratislava

Results of the first half year 1. Setup of a common list of the requested parameters and length of time series (I-IV.2006) Results: * very limited feedback on the circulated data questionnaire * suggestion: concentration on precipitation and near-surface temperature * 30-year period 1974-2005 for the length of time series suggested 2. Supply of meteorological data from the project participants to PIK‘s database (IV-VII.2006) * 10 Slovak stations supplied to project‘s database, (1951(87)-2005, daily), * data from Poland, Italy, Greek (in progress) * 750 additional German precipitation stations received from DWD (1951-2003) * 300 additional stations extracted from the synoptical dataset DS512 for the CADSES region (1979-2003, incomplete series) Action 2.1. Compilation of common meteorological database for the CADSES region HYDROCARE 26-28.06.2006, Bratislava

Conclusions based on the actual achievments: Compilation of a common dataset on the basis of station observations with sufficient spatial and temporal coverage is not possible Alternative: Compilation of a gridded dataset of daily temperature and precipitation with 0.5° resolution Basis for gridded dataset: Daily Re-Analysis from ECMWF + observation from available stations + gridded monthly data from the global Potsdam Climate Data Set (PCDS) for land areas.  Ongoing work for activity 2. Supply of meteorological data from the project participants to PIK‘s database (IV-VII.2006): Re-Analysis (ERA40) extracted from ECMWF archive (1974-2003) Action 2.1. Compilation of common meteorological database for the CADSES region HYDROCARE 26-28.06.2006, Bratislava

Results of the first half year (cont.) 3. Quality control and homogeneity analysis (VI-X.2006) First results: - 750 German and 10 Slovakia stations controlled and homogenized - ERA40 compared with observation data (German stations): Temperature: * ERA40 is 0.3°K to warm, * correlation of ERA40 to observation: 0.95 (summer) 0.95 (winter) Precipitation: * ERA40 is 20-25% to dry (winter better as summer), * correlation of ERA40 to observation: 0.5 (summer) 0.7 (winter) * years 1972, 2002-2004 are 40-50% too moist Action 2.1. Compilation of common meteorological database for the CADSES region HYDROCARE 26-28.06.2006, Bratislava

Conclusions Activities in action 2.1 started and processed as scheduled. At the beginning of 2007 all project partners will have access to a gridded data set of temperature and precipitation Thank‘s for your attention Action 2.1. Compilation of common meteorological database for the CADSES region HYDROCARE 26-28.06.2006, Bratislava

Working Schedule Action 2.2 Action 2.2 - Analysis of Variability and Extremes in Meteorological Records Working Schedule Specific Task 2006 2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Adaptation of statistical methodologies for data diagnosis Compilation of a common data set for the CADSES regions Analysis of data records for individual extreme indicators Higher-order multivariate data analysis Deliverables Quantitative Indicators for climatic extremes, natural variability and trends (gridded data set, technical reports, to be delivered 2007) HYDROCARE 2nd Assembly of Partners 27th – 28th June, 2006, Bratislava, Slovakia

Statistical Methodologies for Data Diagnosis Action 2.2 - Analysis of Variability and Extremes in Meteorological Records Statistical Methodologies for Data Diagnosis Review of statistial methods for extremes Screening of candidates for characterizing precip. (high/low, transferability) Application of the Standarized Precipitation Index to a German test region HYDROCARE 2nd Assembly of Partners 27th – 28th June, 2006, Bratislava, Slovakia

Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) pilot study Action 2.2 - Analysis of Variability and Extremes in Meteorological Records Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) pilot study Time series of the first principal component scores and the reconstructed time series by retaining the main periodic components for the Elbe basin (about 40% expl. variance due to periods between 4.8 and 6.9 years) Loading patterns of the principal components of the Standardized Precipitation Index SPI on 24-month time scale in the Elbe basin (all loadings: 80% explained variance) HYDROCARE 2nd Assembly of Partners 27th – 28th June, 2006, Bratislava, Slovakia

Working Schedule Action 2.3 Action 2.3 - Linking Observations, Global Analyses an Regional Climate Modeling Working Schedule Specific Task 2006 2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Compilation of forcing data for a regio- nal climate model from analyses Model evaluation using station observations and adaptation to the region Reconstruction of past climatic condi- tions Analysis of model results for extremes and their dynamics Deliverables Area-wide spatial homogeneous and high-resolution (~ 10 km) dynamic extreme indicators on a grid (technical report, gridded data set, drought indicators, to be delivered starting in Dec. 2006) HYDROCARE 2nd Assembly of Partners 27th – 28th June, 2006, Bratislava, Slovakia

Compilation of Regional Climate Model Forcing Data Action 2.3 - Linking Observations, Global Analyses an Regional Climate Modeling Compilation of Regional Climate Model Forcing Data Development of a new, generalized preprocessing tool Compilation of forcing data for a 10-year climate reconstruction test run (coarse grid, 0.44° lat/lon) Compilation of forcing data for a 40-year reconstruction started (fine mesh, 0.165° lat/lon) HYDROCARE 2nd Assembly of Partners 27th – 28th June, 2006, Bratislava, Slovakia

Model Evaluation and Adaptation Action 2.3 - Linking Observations, Global Analyses an Regional Climate Modeling Model Evaluation and Adaptation Enhancement of a multi-run simulation environment (SimEnv) to perform optimization experiments Evaluation of a 10-year climate reconstruction using reanalysis data HYDROCARE 2nd Assembly of Partners 27th – 28th June, 2006, Bratislava, Slovakia

Action 2.3 - Linking Observations, Global Analyses an Regional Climate Modeling CLM 2.4.6 results ERA15 analyses interp. CLM 2.4.6 results ERA15 analyses interp. Averaged Mean Seal Level Pressure 1981-1990 [hPa] Area Averaged Mean Seal Level Pressure 1981-1990 HYDROCARE 2nd Assembly of Partners 27th – 28th June, 2006, Bratislava, Slovakia

Estimated (Application form) (Additional scientist Incurred Expenses Action 2.1 - 2.3 01. 01. 2006 – 31. 05. 2006 Expenses per Action Action 2.1 Action 2.2 Action 2.3 Budget lines Incurred Estimated (Application form) BL1 Co-ordination BL2 Personnel 5.748,91 10.224,17 (Additional scientist 2th HY 2006) 4.679,50 23.428,25 22.239,17 BL3 Meetings BL4 Travel and accommodation 0,00 260,00 (changed) 53,90 (+465,00) 520,00 BL5 Promotion (+160,00) 160.00 (+165,00) 160,00 (+325,00) 305,00 BL6 Ext. expertise and audit (+300,00) 300,00 BL7 Others BL8 Small scale investments HYDROCARE 2nd Assembly of Partners 27th – 28th June, 2006, Bratislava, Slovakia

Thank You ! HYDROCARE 2nd Assembly of Partners 27th – 28th June, 2006, Bratislava, Slovakia