1. Actions & Activities Report PP8 – Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany 2.1Compilation of Meteorological Observations, 2.2Analysis of Variability and Extremes and 2.3Linking Observations, Global Analyses and Regional Climate Modeling Hermann Österle, Uwe Böhm, Friedrich-Wilhelm Gerstengarbe, Peter C. Werner & Martin Wodinski Assembly of Partners 28 th – 29 th June, 2007, Wroclaw, Poland

2. Working Schedule Deliverables Homogenized data records (12/06), updated station data set (11/07) Specific Task 20062007 123456789101112123456789101112 Setup of a common list of the requested parameters and length of time series supply of meteorological data from the project participants to PIK’s data base Quality control and homogeneity analysis Filling of gaps and homogenisation of time series Compilation of a common (gridded) data set for the CADSES regions Data sets update and technology provision Action 2.1 – Compilation of Meteorological Observations Assembly of Partners 28 th – 29 th June, 2007, Wroclaw, Poland

3. Action 2.1 – Compilation of Meteorological Observations Results: 1271 station time series from different sources obtained for Europe (580 of them located in the CADSES regions) + 2342 German stations, but: Compilation of a common dataset with sufficient spatial and temporal coverage based on station observations can not be ensured. Alternative solution: Creating of a daily gridded dataset for T2m and precipitation 1. Collection of meteorological station data (I-VII 2006)

4. Action 2.1 – Compilation of Meteorological Observations 1. Creation a of daily gridded dataset for T2m and precipitation Basis data: - daily grid data (ERA40, 0.5*0.5°, 1958-2002) - daily time series (observations, 1958-2002) - monthly grid data (PIK-GCD, 0.5*0.5°,1901-2002) ERA40- daily ECMWF Reanalysis PIK-GCD – PIK Global Climate Dataset of monthly gridded data (CRU-data set homogenized and updated at PIK) Approach: ERA40  initial values for the monthly internal variability observations  adjustment of ERA40 intra-monthly variability PIK-GCD  adjustment (normalization) of the resulting monthly means (totals) to the correct monthly values

5. Action 2.1 – Compilation of Meteorological Observations 2. Quality control and homogeneity analysis (VI-X.2006) Validation of ERA40 : Temperature: *ERA40 is general 0.3°K too warm, *correlation of ERA40 to observation: 0.95 (summer and winter) Precipitation: *ERA40 is general 20-25% too dry (winter better than summer), *correlation of ERA40 to observation: 0.5 (summer), 0.7 (winter) *years 1972, 2002-2004 are 40-50% too moist

6. Action 2.1 – Compilation of Meteorological Observations 3. Generation of a gridded homogenous data set by merging daily ERA40 data, daily observations and monthly PIK-GCD data (XI.2006-V.2007) “ correct” monthly value computed monthly value where: iy, im, id = date, j = number of grid‘s point; = weighted mean value from ns nearest stations, where: ns = number of nearest stations, = weight, directly proportional to spatial autocorrelation For precipitation : Region: 5-35°O, 35-55°N ( CADSES area completely covered) if

7. Action 2.1 – Compilation of Meteorological Observations Assembly of Partners 28 th – 29 th June, 2007, Wroclaw, Poland Conclusions Conclusions Activities in action 2.1 processed as scheduled. A spatio-temporal homogeneous gridded temperature and precipitation data set covering the entire CADSES-region is elaborated (5-35°O, 35-55°N; 0.5°*0.5°; 1958-2002). From April 2007 on all project partners have access to these data via FTP The first results of statistical analysis - in the next part of this presentation Thanks for your attention Action 2.1 – Compilation of Meteorological Observations

8. Working Schedule Specific Task 20062007 123456789101112123456789101112 Adaptation of statistical methodologies for data diagnosis Analysis of (coarse-res.) data sets for individual extreme indicator trends Analysis of (high-res.) data records for individual extreme indicators Higher-order multivariate data analysis Deliverables Quantitative Indicators for climatic extremes, natural variability and trends: gridded data set 04/07, technical report individual indicators 06/07, technical report aggregated indicators 10/07 Action 2.2 – Analysis of Variability and Extremes in Meteorological Records Assembly of Partners 28 th – 29 th June, 2007, Wroclaw, Poland

9. Analysis of the high-resolution PIK-CADSES data set for extreme indicators and their recent trends Test of different approaches to compute E p for the climatological water balance P-E p Characterization of present-day conditions (high-res.) and recent trends in P-E p Calculation of present-day 95% percentiles of daily total precipitation (high-res.) and recent trends Calculation of Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) for recent day conditions and actual trends Action 2.2 – Analysis of Variability and Extremes in Meteorological Records Assembly of Partners 28 th – 29 th June, 2007, Wroclaw, Poland

10. Action 2.2 – Analysis of Variability and Extremes in Meteorological Records Assembly of Partners 28 th – 29 th June, 2007, Wroclaw, Poland Heavy Precipitation Risk Indicator: 95% Quantile of Daily Total Precipitation PIK-CADSES Data Set 1961-19901991-2002

11. Action 2.2 – Analysis of Variability and Extremes in Meteorological Records Assembly of Partners 28 th – 29 th June, 2007, Wroclaw, Poland Heavy Precipitation Risk Changes in 95% Quantile of Daily Total Precipitation PIK-CADSES Data Set, Difference (1991/2002)-(1961/1990)

12. Action 2.2 – Analysis of Variability and Extremes in Meteorological Records Assembly of Partners 28 th – 29 th June, 2007, Wroclaw, Poland Heavy Precipitation Risk Changes in 95% Quantile of Daily Total Precipitation in the four seasons PIK-CADSES Data Set, Difference (1991/2002)-(1961/1990)

13. Action 2.2 – Analysis of Variability and Extremes in Meteorological Records Assembly of Partners 28 th – 29 th June, 2007, Wroclaw, Poland Potential Drought Risk Indicator: Climatological Annual Total Water Balance (P-E p ) PIK-CADSES Data Set 1961-19901991-2002

14. Action 2.2 – Analysis of Variability and Extremes in Meteorological Records Assembly of Partners 28 th – 29 th June, 2007, Wroclaw, Poland Potential Drought Risk Climatological Annual Total Water Balance (P-E p ) Changes PIK-CADSES Data Set, Difference (1991/2002)-(1961/1990)

15. Action 2.2 – Analysis of Variability and Extremes in Meteorological Records Assembly of Partners 28 th – 29 th June, 2007, Wroclaw, Poland Potential Drought Risk Climatological Seasonal Total Water Balance (P-E p ) Changes PIK-CADSES Data Set, Difference (1991/2002)-(1961/1990)

16. Action 2.2 – Analysis of Variability and Extremes in Meteorological Records Assembly of Partners 28 th – 29 th June, 2007, Wroclaw, Poland Precipitation Climatological Annual Total Precipitation PIK-CADSES Data Set 1961-19901991-2002

17. Action 2.2 – Analysis of Variability and Extremes in Meteorological Records Precipitation Climatological Annual Total Precipitation Changes PIK-CADSES Data Set, Difference (1991/2002)-(1961/1990) Assembly of Partners 28 th – 29 th June, 2007, Wroclaw, Poland

18. Action 2.2 – Analysis of Variability and Extremes in Meteorological Records Assembly of Partners 28 th – 29 th June, 2007, Wroclaw, Poland Precipitation Climatological Seasonal Total Precipitation Changes PIK-CADSES Data Set, Difference (1991/2002)-(1961/1990)

19. Action 2.2 – Analysis of Variability and Extremes in Meteorological Records Assembly of Partners 28 th – 29 th June, 2007, Wroclaw, Poland Potential Evaporation Climatological Annual Total Potential Evaporation PIK-CADSES Data Set 1961-19901991-2002

20. Action 2.2 – Analysis of Variability and Extremes in Meteorological Records Assembly of Partners 28 th – 29 th June, 2007, Wroclaw, Poland Potential Evaporation Climatological Annual Total Potential Evaporation Changes PIK-CADSES Data Set, Difference (1991/2002)-(1961/1990)

21. Action 2.2 – Analysis of Variability and Extremes in Meteorological Records Assembly of Partners 28 th – 29 th June, 2007, Wroclaw, Poland Potential Evaporation Climatological Seasonal Total Potential Evaporation Changes PIK-CADSES Data Set, Difference (1991/2002)-(1961/1990)

22. Action 2.2 – Analysis of Variability and Extremes in Meteorological Records Assembly of Partners 28 th – 29 th June, 2007, Wroclaw, Poland Potential Drought Risk Indicator: Standardized Precipitation Index SPI PIK-CADSES Data Set 1961-19901991-2002

23. Action 2.2 – Analysis of Variability and Extremes in Meteorological Records Assembly of Partners 28 th – 29 th June, 2007, Wroclaw, Poland Potential Drought Risk Changes in Standardized Precipitation Index SPI PIK-CADSES Data Set, Difference (1991/2002)-(1961/1990)

24. Working Schedule Specific Task 20062007 123456789101112123456789101112 Compilation of forcing data for a regio- nal climate model from analyses Model evaluation using station observations and adaptation to the region Reconstruction of past climatic condi- tions Analysis of model results for extremes and their dynamics Deliverables Area-wide spatial homogeneous and high-resolution (~ 18 km) extreme indicators on a grid (technical report, gridded data set, drought indicators, to be delivered starting in Dec. 2006) Action 2.3 – Linking Observations, Global Analyses and Regional Climate Modeling Assembly of Partners 28 th – 29 th June, 2007, Wroclaw, Poland

25. Model area CADSES climate reconstructions 0.44°/0.165° horizontal resolution Action 2.3 – Linking Observations, Global Analyses and Regional Climate Modeling Assembly of Partners 28 th – 29 th June, 2007, Wroclaw, Poland

26. Hydrological Cycle Regional Model Reconstruction Run Compilation of initial and boundary conditions from ECMWF reanalyses (ERA40 data set) for the reconstruction run region Development of methodology (scripts, jobs) to run the model in a successive restart mode (Further additional) updates in the preprocessor (interpolation) to provide smooth atmospheric boundary fields to the model Start of the model reconstruction run (ongoing) Development of postprocessing software for time series extraction of individual and aggregated model variables (ongoing) Action 2.3 – Linking Observations, Global Analyses and Regional Climate Modeling Assembly of Partners 28 th – 29 th June, 2007, Wroclaw, Poland

27. Actions 2.2 & 2.3 Activities in both actions in general processed as scheduled Action 2.2  Task “Analysis of (coarse-res.) data sets for individual extreme indicator trends” finished as scheduled  Task “Analysis of (high-res.) data records for individual extreme indicators” continued as scheduled  Task „Higher-order multivariate data analysis” started recently (definition of indicators) Action 2.3  Task “Reconstruction of past climatic conditions” meanwhile started with some delay, no implications on result delivery so far  Task “Analysis of model results for extremes and their dynamics” will start now with minor delay Conclusions Assembly of Partners 28 th – 29 th June, 2007, Wroclaw, Poland

28. Thank You again ! Assembly of Partners 28 th – 29 th June, 2007, Wroclaw, Poland