Climate Forcings Dr Nicolas Bellouin (University of Reading)

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Presentation transcript:

Climate Forcings Dr Nicolas Bellouin (University of Reading)

CAMS Climate Forcings We are a climate-focused service based on the CAMS Reanalysis of Atmospheric Composition. We provide estimates and uncertainties of radiative forcing exerted by perturbations to atmospheric composition caused by human activities. Our users are involved in the scientific and policy aspects of climate change.

The Earth’s energy budget The Earth gets its energy from the Sun, reflects a third of it, absorbs the rest, then emits longwave radiation back to space. The Earth’s surface currently takes in more energy than it emits, and warms. At the surface Figure 2.11 of IPCC AR5, 2013

Human activities perturb the composition of the atmosphere, with consequences on the energy budget Increases in greenhouse gases decrease the longwave flux emitted to space. Changes in stratospheric and tropospheric ozone perturb shortwave and longwave fluxes. Pollution particles (aerosols) increase reflection of shortwave flux to space. Figure 1.01 of IPCC AR5, 2013

Radiative forcing quantifies energy budget imbalances Radiative forcing is positive for changes that lead to a gain in energy in the Earth system. Radiative forcing is negative for changes that lead to a loss in energy in the Earth system. Quantifying radiative forcing components is a crucial task for climate researchers. Figure 8.15 of IPCC AR5, 2013

How does the CAMS Reanalysis of atmospheric composition help? Total columns for July 2003 from MACC Reanalysis. It is arguably the best representation of current atmospheric composition. Combines the strengths of modelling and observations. Simulates the distributions of many radiative forcing agents in a consistent way CO2 CH4 MACC reanalysis: 9 product classes from 11 satellite instruments O3 Aerosols

How do we estimate radiative forcing? CAMS atmospheric composition datasets are used in radiative flux calculations. We also use additional observations, and estimates of atmospheric composition before they were perturbed by human activities. Strong focus on uncertainties.

Our expertise CAMS Climate Forcings gathers top experts of radiation, greenhouse gases, aerosols, and uncertainty quantification. Taken together, we have contributed to every single IPCC Assessment Report since 1990! Keith Shine Guy Brasseur Gunnar Myhre Olivier Boucher Piers Forster Johannes Quaas Nicolas Bellouin Ken Carslaw and Will Davies, Johannes Muelmenstaedt, Leighton Regayre, Chris Smith, Natalia Sudarchikova

Current products www.gmes-atmosphere.eu/news/radiative_forcing/ Identification of aerosol origin Anthropogenic Natural Aerosol radiative forcing From increased scattering/absorption of shortwave radiation From modification of cloud properties Aerosol optical depth (2003—2012) Aerosol radiative forcing (2003—2012)

Current products: Uncertainties It is difficult to identify aerosol origin and quantify how strongly aerosols interact with radiation and clouds We publish uncertainty ranges and make advanced uncertainty analyses.

Products coming in August 2016 Forcing agent Shortwave Longwave Carbon dioxide Methane Tropospheric ozone Stratospheric ozone Aerosol-radiation interactions Aerosol-cloud interactions IMPROVED IMPROVED All forcings are monthly averages including stratospheric adjustment, at the top of the atmosphere and surface, and for cloud-free and all-sky conditions. Also, 3-hourly distributions of aerosol radiative effects at surface to drive land-surface models.

Climate forcings users Climate research community National and international policymaking via new sets of CO2 equivalent emission factors NGOs

CAMS Climate Forcings We are a climate-focused service based on the CAMS Reanalysis of Atmospheric Composition. We provide estimates and uncertainties of radiative forcing exerted by perturbations to atmospheric composition caused by human activities. Our users are involved in the scientific and policy aspects of climate change.