Monetary Policy Report July 2011

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Presentation transcript:

Monetary Policy Report July 2011

Stable development in the Swedish economy – despite increased uncertainty globally

Global economic outlook still divided GDP growth, annual percentage change. BRIC refers to Brazil, Russia, India and China, forecast from the IMF. Sources: The IMF and the Riksbank

Considerable uncertainty abroad Interest rates for government bonds with 10 years left to maturity, per cent Source: Reuters EcoWin

Stable krona in the period ahead TCW exchange rate, index, 18 Nov 1992 = 100 Source: The Riksbank

Swedish economy enters slower growth phase Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Swedish economy will remain stable GDP. Annual percentage change, seasonally-adjusted data. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Improvement in the labour market continues Unemployment 15–74 age group, percentage of labour force, seasonally adjusted data. Pre-2001 data is spliced by the Riksbank on the basis of unemployment in the 16-64 age group. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Sources: National Mediation Office and the Riksbank Rising wage increases Annual percentage change Sources: National Mediation Office and the Riksbank

Large differences between measures of inflation Annual percentage change Source: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Expectations in line with forecast Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden, TNS Sifo Prospera and the Riksbank

Higher interest rate contributes to stable economic development Repo rate, per cent, quarterly averages Source: The Riksbank

A forecast, not a promise Wage-driven inflation Weaker international economic activity Repo rate, per cent, quarterly averages Source: The Riksbank

Stable development in the Swedish economy – despite increased uncertainty globally