Department of Public & International Affairs Exercise 7 3/3/2009 (Exercise 7) The Impact of gender On 2004 presidential vote choice Controlling for marital status Roger C. Lowery PLS 401, Senior Seminar Department of Public & International Affairs UNC Wilmington 3 March 2009

Bivariate Hypothesis Theory: Men are more likely than women to support the use of force in domestic and foreign affairs. This gender gap, since the Vietnam Conflict, has produced higher support for Republican candidates among men than women voters. By 2004, the Iraq and Afghan Conflicts had overshadowed Bush’s earlier compassionate-conservative image among women voters. H1: Men were more likely than women to favor Bush in the 2004 presidential election. 3 March 2009

2004 Presidential Vote Choice by Gender 2004 Presidential Vote Choice Table 2: 2004 Presidential Vote Choice by Gender Cells contain: -Column percent -Weighted N Gender 1 Male 2 Female ROW TOTAL 2004 Presidential Vote Choice 1: Bush 53.9 204 46.8 192 50.2 395 2: Kerry 46.1 174 53.2 218 49.8 392 COL TOTAL 100.0 378 100.0 409 100.0 787 Summary Statistics Tau-b =.07 Chi-square probability = 0.04 3 March 2009

Bivariate Findings H2 (men were more likely than women to favor Bush in the 2004 presidential election) is supported by the sample data in Table 2 (because both necessary & sufficient conditions are observed): The gender-gap voting pattern predicted by H2 is observed in the sample data (although the taub of 0.07 indicates that the gender gap was weak in the sample voters). In addition, this sample finding is statistically significant and thus can be extrapolated to the national electorate. The χ2 probability of random-sampling error is less than 0.05 (it is 0.04). 3 March 2009

Multivariate Hypothesis Theory: Marriage tends to attract socially and politically homogeneous spouses. Marriage tends to produce socially and politically homogeneous spouses. Therefore, the strength of the gender gap in voting is conditional upon the marital status of voters. H3: the impact of gender on presidential vote choice is stronger within non-married than married voters. 3 March 2009

(Single, divorced, or separated) 2004 Presidential Vote Choice Table 3a 2004 Presidential Vote Choice by Gender (Single, divorced, or separated) Cells contain: -Column percent -Weighted N Gender 1 Male 2 Female ROW TOTAL 2004 Presidential Vote Choice 1: Bush 47.2 57 33.8 46 40.1 103 2: Kerry 52.8 63 66.2 91 59.9 154 COL TOTAL 100.0 120 100.0 137 100.0 258 Summary Statistics Tau-b =.14 Chi-square probability = 0.02 3 March 2009

2004 Presidential Vote Choice by Gender 2004 Presidential Vote Choice Table 3b 2004 Presidential Vote Choice by Gender (Married or widowed) Cells contain: -Column percent -Weighted N Gender 1 Male 2 Female ROW TOTAL 2004 Presidential Vote Choice 1: Bush 57.0 147 53.3 145 55.1 292 2: Kerry 43.0 111 46.7 127 44.9 238 COL TOTAL 100.0 258 100.0 272 100.0 530 Summary Statistics Tau-b = .04 Chi-square probability = 0.41 3 March 2009

Multivariate Findings H3 (the impact of gender on presidential vote choice is stronger within non-married voters than married and widowed voters) is supported by the sample data (because both necessary & sufficient conditions are observed): The strength of the gender gap did change as predicted in the partial-table subgroups: the taub was moderately strong (0.14) within the non-married (single, separated, or divorced) voters and weak (0.04) among married and widowed voters. The gender gap was statistically significant within the non-married voters (χ2 = 0.02) but not the married and widowed voters (χ2 = 0.41). 3 March 2009

Substantive Implications Although weaker than in previous presidential elections, the gender gap was still present in 2004 – but only in non-married voters. Because: 1) there is an increasing number of non-married voters and 2) there are more female than male voters, the gender gap is a not-insignificant problem for the Republican Party to address. However, because the current Democratic president is faced with both the Iraq and Afghan wars, his success or failure in resolving those conflicts will impact the gender gap in his support. 3 March 2009

Methodological Implications Because the future of both parties lies in the voting loyalties of younger voters, the impact of period and life-cycle effects on the gender gap in voting needs to be analyzed. Because sectional divisions in party loyalties have increased in recent years, sorting out regional effects on gender-gap voting needs to be examined. 3 March 2009