Eurasian Regionalisms and the East Asian Community Dr. Mikhail A. Molchanov Associate Professor of Political Science St. Thomas University, Canada

Research questions and definitions What is Eurasian regionalism? Politically steered, top-down process Economic, social, political (re)integration of several postcommunist states from Belarus to China Reaction to economic challenges and security dilemmas of the global age As much about identity as it is about political economy. Theories IR realism: an update on classic alliance politics; Russia’s efforts neoimperialist in nature IR liberalism: a stepping stone to a global market NR (Hettne; Shaw/Söderbaum): response to globalization

Eurasian regionalisms more than 1 Typifying RI moves Bandwagoning (the Baltic states  the EU; central Asians  ECO) Externally induced (GUAM-Community of Democratic Choice-ODED) Endogenous to the region (CIS, EurAsEC, CSTO, SCO) Russia-centered, China-centered, peripheral Subregionalism OCAC, EurAsEC, BSEC R-B Union, CES, Customs Union, Eurasian Union GUAM vs. CSTO? Competing claims Identity: European or Eurasian? Orientations: pro-western or not?

Russian foreign policy turning East Putin’s involvement in the Eastern Siberia–Pacific Ocean (ESPO) saga: China vs Japan The IC in the BRIC Eurasian integration – key theme of the 2012 presidential campaign Membership in regional clubs as a power tool Oil and gas interests in Central Asia/Caspian Afghanistan and CSTO CRRF (19,000) US/NATO presence in the area China’s penetration of Central Asia: Kazakh oil since 2006 Turkmen gas since 2009

Russia, China and the SCO SCO est. 2001: China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan (from confidence bldg measures) Objectives: peace, security, stability; development; a just international order; vs. terrorism, separatism and extremism Inter-bank consortium: China provided $900 mln before 2009; $10 bln offer in 2009; $12 bln in new loans in 2011 Rejects Russia’s attempts to add a military dimension Anti-western alliance? “Dictators' club“? A new “geopolitical axis”? Russia’s cushion or an instrument of China’s expansion? Neither Russia nor China provide a principal engine to the Eurasian integration at the moment

Eurasian regionalism: development and security New regionalism: RI as a cushion against current crisis of global capitalism Requires a developmental state Becomes a factor in provision of regional security: SCO, CSTO Bolsters legitimacy of non-democratic governments; helps regimes’ survival Joint opposition to the U.S. unilateralism Common values (Eastern Orthodoxy-Islam-Confucianism): collectivism, statism, equity, and community Challenges Russia-China Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan No benevolent hegemon

Eyeing an East Asian Community Russian FP priorities preservation of sovereignty & security, accumulation of wealth; restoration of Russia’s global status and relevance Trade growth as a vehicle exports to China grew 4 times in 8 years (2000-2008) to Japan 3 times in 2004- 2010 To Korea more than tenfold in 2000-2010 However, the total share of NE Asia in Russia’s foreign trade remains small: 13.6% (EU- 52%; CIS – 15% in 2007; APEC total – 24% in 2011)

Russia’s exports to the countries of NE Asia (US$ mln in current prices)

Russia and East Asian Community Attempts to build ties with Asian Regional Forum Japan’s ideas on the East Asian community, but: Medvedev did not go to 6th East Asia summit in 2011 Showcasing 2012 APEC summit in Vladivostok needs investments to modernize the Far East region bilateralism does not help (cf. ESPO’s checkered history) regional economic integration a key theme The federal Strategy in Asia-Pacific Region prepared Sakhalin I, II – Japanese Sodeco, Mitsui, Mitsubishi Sakhalin–Khabarovsk–Vladivostok gas pipeline for ROK

Conclusions Eurasian regionalism – a priority for RFP Advantages: growth, status, trade expansion Disadvantages: China may take the lead; regional responsibility in Central Asia Who will be the paymaster is the key Either a new “smart power” (Nazarbayev) or a lifeline for authoritarian regimes Eurasian regionalism must be open to the world outside (an “open regionalism” model)

Thank you!