met.no – SMHI experiences with ALARO 03/24/11 met.no – SMHI experiences with ALARO ALADIN Workshop & HIRLAM ASM, 5-8 April 2011, Norrköping, Sweden Ulf Andrae (SMHI), Trygve Aspelien (met.no), Lisa Bengtsson-Sedlar (SMHI), Mariken Homleid (met.no), Magnus Lindskog (SMHI) and Ole Vignes (met.no) This poster template is from http://www.swarthmore.edu/NatSci/cpurrin1/posteradvice.htm. It is free, free, free for non-commercial use. But if you really like it, I’m always thrilled to get postcards from wherever you happen to be presenting your poster. Or, send me cookies! My kids made me put that last sentence in. Have fun. Sincerely, Colin Purrington, Department of Biology, Swarthmore College, Swarthmore, PA 19081, USA. Email: cpurrin1@swarthmore.edu Daily ALARO runs in Norway Daily ALARO runs in Sweden History and status Harmonie4 From August 2008 – 33h0 4 km resolution ALADIN physics Boundaries from Hirlam8 From 30 October 2008 – 33h1 ALARO physics From 17 February 2010 – 35h1.2 Surface analysis From 13 September 2010 – 36h1.1 ALARO with SURFEX System Design SMHI HARMONIE 2010: 35h1.3 5.5 km horisontal resolution 60 vertical levels (HIRLAM definitions) Lateral boundaries from ECMWF Forecast length: 0-36 h ALARO with 2-L ISBA (not SURFEX) Surface analysis and 3DVAR SMHI HARMONIE 2011: 36h1.3 ALARO -0 physics with surfex scheme 1 Plans for 2011/2012 Harmonie5.5 36h1.3 5.5 km resolution ALARO with SURFEX Boundaries from ECMWF Surface analysis and 3DVAR Harmonie2.5 2.5 km resolution AROME Probably boundaries from ECMWF Model domain (blue frame) and NOAA 18 AMSU-A channel 10 data coverage for one particular case (red dots). SMHI HARMONIE 3DVAR 6 h data assimilation cycle. Background error statistics from differences of downscaled forecasts. These are downscaled from an ECMWF data assimilation ensemble experiment. Conventional types of observations and ATOVS AMSU-A channels 6-10. Variational Bias Correction. Monitoring System for satellite data to be introduced to HARMONIE system. No observations closer to lateral boundary than 250 kms are assimilated. Future plans include assimilation of ATOVS AMSU-A/MHS, radar radial winds, and GPS ZTD. Summary verification of Harmonie4, UM4, Hirlam4/8/12 and ECMWF at Norwegian synop stations Autumn 2010 Web-based satellite data assimilation monitoring system to be included in the HARMONIE system. Monitoring of satellite observation minus background departures (left) and of variational bias correction (right). Harmonie4 T2m: acceptable Harmonie4 10 m wind speed: still too weak… Harmonie4 precipitation: VERY promising Experiences over Norway with Harmonie4 - 36h1.1 2011 experiences at SMHI with 36h1.3 Previous versions of Harmonie had large and systematic errors related to the physics, e.g.: very low surface temperatures in winter too low wind speed over land 36h1.1 with SURFEX from Seep 2010 shows significant improvements which can be related to tiling (nature/sea/lake/town) canopy module (multilayer surface scheme) increased wind speed (from A to B) with reduced drag as a function of st.dev. of Small Scale Orography (C), but still too low (D) mean orography instead of envelope ALARO still have problems predicting the low temperatures (D) The daily T2M cycle shows good perfomance during daytime (D). Recent sensitivity tests indicates that a better surface assimilation may help. Very good wind speed over low land (F), still underestimation over high land ( not shown ) Better daily cycle for clouds(G) and better precipiation ( not shown) Comparison against radio sondes shows similar perfomance for ALARO and HIRLAM Red: ALARO 5.5km , Green: HIRLAM 5.5km, blue observations D E A C F G B D 10m wind speed at Sognefjell Harmonie4 UM4 Hirlam4 Future work Improved treatment of snow and lakes Implement and evaluate EKF for surface assimilation Improved observation usage Look into reasons for poor 10 meter wind scores in high terrain SMHI and met.no plans for a joint operational NWP suite on the 2-5km scale in 2014. Integration and preparations starts during autumn 2011. References Le Moigne, P., 2009: SURFEX OFF-LINE Scientific Documentation and User’s Guide, available at http://www.cnrm.meteo.fr/surfex Taillefer, F., 2002: CANARI – Technical Documentation – Based on ARPEGE cycle CY25T1 (AL25T1 for ALADIN), available at http://www.cnrm.meteo.fr/aladin/