AGEING IN ASIA AND THE PACIFIC: AN OVERVIEW Astrid Bant, UNFPA Representative Quynh Nguyen, Social Protection, UNFPA Hanoi, 17 July 2017

Outline Trends in population ageing Gender dimensions of ageing Social protection and retirement income Changing workforce Health care and NCDs Implications for policy

1. Ageing is transforming the world Population ageing is a development achievement. The 21st century will be the first era in which humanity will no longer be young. By 2030, older persons will outnumber children aged 0-9 years (1.4 billion versus 1.3 billion) By 2050, there will be more people aged 60 years or over than adolescents and youth aged 10-24 years (2.1 billion versus 2.0 billion) Developing countries, where more than 60% of people aged 60 plus already live, is ageing fastest. The Asia-Pacific region is where we witness the most rapid population ageing, together with Latin America and the Caribbean, and Africa. Population ageing is a development achievement, in improving health and quality of life. Ageing brings about both opportunities and challenges. Population ageing is no longer be ignored. The numbers and proportions of older persons speck for themselves. Two thirds of the world’s older persons living in developing countries and their numbers are growing faster than the developed countries. Developing countries are still having a large young population, as such, they will need to address issues of both a large group of young people and an increasing group of older persons. The Asia-Pacific region is among most rapidly ageing in the world. The number of older persons (60 and above) is projected to increase by 66% in the next 15 years, and will be home of more than half of the world’s oldest-old as well. Thus, it’s important to addresses the challenge of building a society for all ages, and link ageing to other frameworks for social and economic development.

The Asia-Pacific total population, 2016 (thousand people) By 2016, there was a total of 4.4 billion people in Asia and Pacific region, accounting for 60% of the total world population All countries in Asia and Pacific is ageing, even though at different speed. Source: ESCAP, 2017

Trends in population ageing The Asia-Pacific region is undergoing profound and rapid population changes. All countries in Asia and the Pacific are in the process of ageing at an unprecedented pace, although the timing and pace of this transition varies across the region. There are many countries in the region which have relatively larger proportion of youth populations, and still have the opportunity to reap the benefits of the demographic dividend (such as Viet Nam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia). However, even these countries have a significant number of older persons. The South and South-West Asia subregion had the lowest proportion of persons aged 60 years and over at 8.7 per cent. In absolute terms, the number of older persons in that subregion is 168 million (2016), which accounts for 33 per cent of all persons over 60 years of age living in the Asia-Pacific region Source: ESCAP, 2017

GDP per capita and percentage of older persons (65 and above) in the Asia-Pacific Region, 2014 Countries with higher incomes tend to be more advanced in the ageing process. It also shows that some countries became old before becoming rich, such as Georgia, Armenia and Sri Lanka with per capita incomes between $3,500 and $4,100 and a proportion of older persons between 13 and almost 20 per cent. Brunei Darussalam is a country that is rich but not yet aged with a per capita income of more than $40,000 and a percentage of older persons at 7 per cent. Thousand US$ Source: ESCAP, 2017

Increasing pace of ageing The pace of ageing is also more rapid in the developing countries in the Asia-Pacific region and at a much earlier stage of development compared to developed countries, giving them limited time and opportunity to adjust to the needs of an aged society Source: ESCAP, 2017

2. Gender dimensions of ageing Feminization of ageing, especially at more advance age: the proportion of women in the population increases with age (90.8 men for every 100 women above 60yo, 69.5 men for every 100 women above 80yo) Women live longer than men, thus having higher probability of living alone and/or in widowhood Women participation in labour force and employment is less than men, and in many cases in low income and unstable job. Older women are less likely to have income security and are often discriminated against due to their limited access to resources and opportunities, including health care, adequate housing, social protection and legal justice Disability increases with age, especially in women Women live longer than men, due to biological and social factors. Vulnerability of older persons exacerbated with aged, especially in women. Women have less savings and as they live longer, their savings can be well diminished soon before they are well aged. Disability: recent study in some developed countries in the region shows that for older men, longevity has increased, disability has been postponed to older ages, disability prevalence has fallen, and the percentage of remaining life spent active has increased. However, for older women, small longevity increases have been accompanied by even smaller postponements in disability, a reversal of a downward trend in moderate disability, and stagnation of active life as a percentage of life expectancy. As a consequence, older women no longer live more active years than men, despite their longer lives.

3. Retirement incomes and access to pensions How to fund retirement income in a longer term? And for a growing number of beneficiaries? How much is enough? Tax-funded? Private retirement savings? Current and future expenditure by government on pension? Adequate allocation within social protection for different pillars and groups? How to meet individual needs by older persons?

Challenges in pension system More effective and sustainable financial protection High-income and more advanced agerS Need to develop a relevant and affordable pension system and gradually increasing coverage Low-income and younger countries Expanding pension coverage and provide adequate income support Middle-income and rapidly ageing countries

Expanding social protection for all Low social protection coverage in low- middle income countries: expand contributory and non-contributory pensions Large working age population  large future elderly population  high financial needs National defined SPF?? Poor Rest of informal sector Formal sector Population

4. Changing workforce Workforce structure: total workforce with decreasing in size and increasing in age Increasing number and percentage of older population, decrease old age support ratio National Transfer Account (NTA): changing age structure influences economic growth Unavoidable trend of applied technology and the industry 4.0 in improving productivity “Countries experiencing more rapid ageing have grown more in recent decades. ..This finding might reflect the more rapid adoption of automation technologies in countries undergoing more pronounced demographic changes” - Recent study (2017) in OECD and some developing countries Changing workforce structure will change job structure age the workforce is increasing in age  job need to be more relevant with age. Meaningful work for older people. Less people working in supporting for older persons Recent study (2017) in OECD and some developing countries on the impact of ageing on economic growth in the age of automation Industry 4.0 is the current trend of automation and data exchange in manufacturing technologies. It includes cyber-physical systems, the Internet of things and cloud computing. Industry 4.0 creates what has been called a "smart factory".

Old age support ratio

5. Healthcare and NCDs Health system needs to meet the increasing needs of NCDs For middle and low income countries: double burdens of both communicable and non-communicable diseases Increasing mental health issues (dementia, Alzheimer, stress) Increasing cost of health insurance Increasing needs in supporting for activities of daily living (ADL) The need of applying technology, smart and mobile-health in supportive devices for older persons

6. Implications for policy Ageing is not just about older persons. It affect all facets of the society and have impacts on all population groups Need to develop and implement comprehensive policy frameworks to address the needs of older persons, adopting an integrated approach and relevant to national context; Provide the financial and human resources as well as the institutional arrangements needed to implement national policies and plans of action on ageing Improve and build upon existing data sets and surveys at the national and regional level to inform sectoral policies on ageing

Implication for policy Need to improve social protection system to have secure and sustainable retirement income Maintain workforce participation rate, increase the participation of women in labour force, and removal of barriers to the continued participation of mature age workers in the workforce Reorient health systems along to deliver comprehensive health care sensitive to the needs of older persons with the overall framework of universal health care coverage Application of technology in supporting older people, at the same time creating and maintaining social interaction for older people Mainstream ageing into all sectors of public policy, particularly in relation to addressing the rise of non-communicable diseases and providing social protection for vulnerable, poor older persons.

Thank you for your attention!