The Role of Observations and Services After COP-21: The Paris Agreement – a personal view Stephen Briggs CEOS Representative to GEO Programme Board GEO Work Programme Seminar Tshwane, 13 May2017

COP21 – Emissions (i) New approach: Copenhagen approach of single overall agreement, Paris based on multiple unilateral statements - Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs). No centralised agreement – has important consequences for measurements Agreement to limit “…the increase in global average temperature to well below 2°C ….and to pursue efforts to limit temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels”. {compromise between 2°C (Copenhagen) and 1.5°c (wanted by Small Island states)} Emissions to peak “as soon as possible”. Developed countries to take lead in reductions, developing countries enhance mitigation efforts

COP21 – Emissions (ii) Initial INDCS summed pre-COP21 to an equivalent of >2.7C temperature increase Commitments (NDCs) must be renewed every five years, next in 2020, must always be in downward direction, at least 9 mths before each CoP. Reporting to be transparent and based on ‘global stocktake’ every five years, beginning in 2023, to assess overall effectiveness of NDCs; IPCC to report on best practice CO2 measurements must reflect move from Copenhagen (“we will validate/verify your reporting”) to Paris (“we will help you improve your reporting”) Emissions and removals to be accounted for according to methodologies and common metrics assessed by IPCC and adopted by CoP, to be applied to second and subsequent NDCs

COP21 – SBSTA view (my words) • Approach of SBSTA very much in line with e.g. CO2 report of EC pre COP21, including: Need for space based measures of atmospheric CO2 concentrations Ground-based and tall tower measurements also necessary. Need transport models to ensure sources and stocks can be related Assimilation, reanalysis also need to be part of the process Provide climate indicators for decision making at national and sub national level

COP21 – Mitigation and science Real, measurable and long-term benefits related to mitigation must be basis for mitigation rules Specific references to REDD+ and the need for verifiable national Measurement, Reporting and Verification (MRV) of associated forest resources Specific requirement on Parties to provide information on climate impacts and adaptation Need to provide data and services to IPCC Special reports Need to continue to support basic underlying science – not to be forgotten. Support definition of metrics and methodologies in IPCC in emissions analysis

COP21 – What else? • Some recognition of the role of private sector in implementation •  Long-term finance to be put in place related to “loss and risk” of a minimum of 100Bn USD p.a. (more>2020) to reduce impacts of climate in most vulnerable countries. Disaster risk reduction closely linked. Recognizes problems but avoids words like “liability” or “compensation” Required verification of mitigation measures, e.g. mitigation by REDD+ (reduced deforestation) methods important gives role for space agencies •  IPCC to prepare special report in 2018 on impacts of a global 1.5°C temperature rise Current NDCs consistent with 55Gt per year emissions; 2°C requires 40Gt per year, 1.5°C a level tbd by IPCC report.

COP21 – What else? Identified technology transfer as important issue to allow greater international equity, coupled with …….capacity building in developing countries. (GFOI REDD+ support project example of both) Notes co-benefits in areas such a biodiversity, environmental protection Basic need for underpinning science and support for IPCC assessments unchanged, continue to need further information and services EARTH INFORMATION DAY

COP21 – Role of observations and services 1/2 Support stocktaking methods by provision of anthropogenic emissions data and methods – CO2, land use change, integrated field/satellite//trasnport models/assimilation etc… Support mitigation measures e.g. REDD+, land use change Support adaptation measures by providing geo-spatial data locally Provide improved indicators of change and support definition of risk factors and indicators. (Better support in future for political decision makers to see effects of policies.)

COP21 – Role of observations and services 2/2 •  Guide future policy by providing data on effectiveness of implementations of adaptation measures –political benefit •  Continue to provide data to support disaster risk reduction, management and recovery – support “loss and damage” •  Support indicators and targets of Sustainable Development Goals related to climate change (many of them) •  Further support research in climate change by enhanced data provision and support development of climate services •  Etc.

Can interactions be a key driver in implementation of the SDGs? As we move into implementation, we need to deal with the scope, systemic nature of the Agenda and urgency of the challenges and this requires a wide range of tools and science-based analysis to navigate that complexity and realise the ambition Outcome of our work is not a comprehensive of mapping of interactions but a pragmatic, framework that is applicable at different scale, for all SDGs, and especially by policy-makers and stakeholders in this early implementaion phase

BUT: BE CAUTIOUS ABOUT ENSURING LEADERSHIP REMAINS IN RIGHT HANDS i. e BUT: BE CAUTIOUS ABOUT ENSURING LEADERSHIP REMAINS IN RIGHT HANDS i.e. UNFCCC & PARTIES

Art 14 Art 5 Art 7 Art 13 Art 7 Art 8 Art 9 Art 12 Art 10 Art 9 Art 11 Part I - 2. Implementation will Ensure that the climate system continues to be monitored Improve global, regional and local long-term climate forecasts by; Filling gaps in network coverage; Refining ECV Requirements; Improving techniques; Addressing Global Cycles Support adaptation Improve the provision of useful information to users Observe additional parameters Improve the communication of the state of the climate Improve collaboration Art 7 Art 14 Art 7 Art 14 Art 7

Summary and thoughts on process •  Any agreement was a success – alternative outcomes almost unthinkable •  Discussion was more on process than substance in some ways •  Nevertheless very important progress made •  By no means conclusive and does not guarantee success •  Temperature targets very ambitious and will require major changes in social, economic and industrial approaches to be achieved In my view: •  Success will depend on the extent consistent with other needs of public and private sector, i.e. because of economic issues, not despite them •  Business likely to be more important that stated in the documents