Citizens, Society and the State Nigeria Citizens, Society and the State

Most populous nation in Africa (177 million) GDP per capita = $3,203 (2014) HDI rank #152 The Economist’s Democracy Index ranking = #108 (“hybrid” of authoritarian and democracy)

Current trends…

Themes in Comparative Government Natural resources – oil rich Ethnic diversity Unstable gov’ts and military dictatorships Colonialism and military rule has created difficulties in creating democracy Challenge of Islam and democracy

Essential Questions: Will Nigeria return to the path of authoritarianism and more “under development”? Will civilian leadership rise to achieve a true democracy and sustainable growth?

Sovereignty, Authority, and Power “The national question” is an issue: Should Nigeria even be a country? Constitutionalism – eluding Nigeria so far First constitution in 1914, 8 more since (latest in 1999) Military and civilian leaders alike have never felt the need to obey constitutions, and often write new ones upon taking power

Sovereignty, Authority, and Power Legitimacy Newly independent (1960) Highly fragmented along ethnic, regional, religious lines The single stable national institution is the military Leads to legitimacy of military’s right to rule Most leaders have been generals Extremely low legitimacy of government, overall

Sovereignty, Authority, and Power Legitimacy Contradicting political traditions Rule of Law from British colonial days Personalized authority of military leaders since 1960 Massive corruption, distrust of government

Political History 3 Major Eras Pre-Colonial (800 - 1860) Since Independence (1960 – Present)

Pre-Colonial Era (800 – 1860) Trends Trade connections along Niger river with North Africa and other civilizations Early influence of Islam – elite tended to be educated in Arabic and learned the sharia Kinship-based politics – rule was at village level, and were basically extended families Complex political identities – some centralized kingdoms mixed in with small village governance Democratic impulses – rulers expected to seek counsel and govern in the interests of the people

Colonial Era (1860 - 1960) Trends Authoritarian rule – British established chiefs to rule on their behalf Interventionist state – no “free market”… chiefs expected to rule to meet economic goals set by the British Individualism – self-interest of capitalism was mixed with state-domination of the economy Christianity – spread mainly to south and west (Islam entrenched in the north) Intensification of ethnic politics – Hausa-Fulani, Igbo, Yoruba competed for “rewards” from British

Era Since Independence (1960 – Present) Trends Parliamentary replaced by Presidential government in 1979 since majority was difficult to establish Intensification of ethnic conflict – Hausa-Fulani formed a majority coalition with Igbo, angering the Yoruba Military rule – frequent coups Personalized rule and corruption Federalism – attempt to pacify ethnic tension, though military leaders did not allow much local power Economic dependence on oil – enriches those in power, who ignore other sectors of the economy

Era Since Independence (1960-Present) Elected leadership in 1960, overthrown in military coup in 1966 3 more coups by 1976, Olusegun Obasanjo took power Willfully steped down for democratically elected president in 1979 2 more coups by 1985, when Ibrahim Babangida took power Resigned under public pressure in 1993 when he promised to step down for civilian leadership, then voided the election Sani Abacha (1993-1998) ruled brutally, died of a heart attack (maybe poisoned?), replaced by Vice President Abubakar Obasanjo elected for 2 terms (1999-2007) Umaru Yar’Adua elected in 2007 All elections finished with concerns of fraud, violence, etc.

Era Since Independence (1960-Present) 2012 – Pres. Jonathan announced end to fuel subsidies. Nigeria is a major oil producer but has to import most of its fuel Information was leaked that 15 fuel importers collected more than $300 million in 2010 without importing any fuel (Oil Management Company and state Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation were among these companies) This led to week long national strikes by unions and protests over the double issue of corruption and an end to the subsidy. Part of the subsidy was reinstated (Jan. 1st price had doubled to 140 naira per liter) Pres. Jonathan set price at 97 naira on January 16th Boko Haram – translation “Western Education is sinful” started in 2002 with goal to establish sharia law; opposes man-made laws (liberalism) and modern science Attackes churches and Christians; assassinates Muslim clerics who criticize them By the end of 2012 was responsible for between 3,000-10,000 deaths.

Nigerian “modern leaders” Ibrahim Babangida Military President, 1985 – 1993 Resigned

Sani Abacha Military President, 1993 – 1998 Died in office

Olusegun Obasanjo Military President, 1976 – 1979 Resigned for democratic leadership President, 1999 – 2007 Term limited

Umaru Yar’Adua President, 2007 – 2010 Left for heart treatment in Saudi Arabia, acting Vice President Goodluck Jonathan Yar’Adua died in 2010

Goodluck Jonathan Acting President, 2010 after Yar’Adua died Announced on Facebook he would run for re-election 2011 – won re-election with 59% of vote

2015 Nigerian Elections "I promised the country free and fair elections. I have kept my word.“ - Jonathan 8th election since 1960 and 5th since democracy restored in 1999. Then Now

2015 Presidential Elections

Muhammadu Buhari Military Dictator 1983-1985 Democratically elected in 2015 (ran in 2003, 2007, 2011) Won as leader of APC 53% vs. 44% Abolished office of First Lady Unconstitutional and area of corruption in nation Promised to defeat Boko Haram

Political Culture Patron-Clientelism (prebendalism) - exchange of political and economic favors to build support of the leadership – benefits usually go to ethnic and religious groups (usually oil revenues and gov’t contracts) State attempts to control rich civil society (and mostly fails) – many independent associational groups still thriving Tension between modernity and tradition Religious conflict – centered on role of sharia in law and political authority

Geographic Influence Northwest – Hausa-Fulani, Muslim Northeast – Kanuri, Muslim Middle-Belt – smaller groups, mix of Muslim and Christian Southwest – Yoruba, mix of religions Southeast – Igbo, Catholic and Christian South – various minorities

Nigerian Oil Fields

Citizens, Society, and the State Necessary condition for democratization: citizens need to have time to pay attention and participate in the political process Problem for Nigeria: 60% live in poverty Large gap between rich and poor (Gini = .43) Health issues – AIDS epidemic (1 in 11 AIDS carriers are Nigerian) Literacy – 75.1% for men, 67.6% for women

Citizens, Society, and the State Cleavages – one of the most fragmented societies in the world Ethnicity – 250 to 400 distinct ethnic groups with different languages and religions in many cases Hausa-Fulani, Igbo, and Yoruba tribes are largest, but can’t speak each other’s languages and have no contact generally Religion – 50% Muslim, 40% Christian, 10% various native religions Disputes rooted in preferential treatment British gave to Christians; role of sharia in Nigerian law

Citizens, Society, and the State Region – North (predominantly Muslim) vs. South (predominantly Christian) Urban/rural differences – political organizations, interest groups, media only operate in cities Social class – elite are those with ties to the state, who often use the treasury to benefit themselves

Nigerian states that implement some form of Sharia law

Citizens, Society, and the State Public Opinion and Political Participation Civil Society – Voluntary organizations OUTSIDE the control of the state some strengthen Nigerian unity, others work to fragment society on ethnic/religious lines Movement for the Survival of the Ogoni People (MOSOP) – founded by Ken Saro-Wiwa to get oil benefits for Ogoni living in Niger Delta, hold oil companies to environmental standards Saro-Wiwa was publicly executed in 1995

Citizens, Society, and the State Public Opinion and Political Participation Voting Behavior – no one knows how many Nigerians participate because of the irregularities in their elections (estimates around 66%) Attitudes Toward Government – distrust of most officials, cynicism Nigeria ranks 136 of 168 on the “Corruption Perception Index” Abacha’s heart attack was celebrated as the “coup from heaven”

Citizens, Society, and the State Public Opinion and Political Participation Protests, Participation, and Social Movements Increasing protest and organization/mobilization since 1999 Often focused around international oil companies

Linkage Institutions Political Parties Regionally based Extreme factionalization resulted in development of so many parties, there is no coherent party system Parties appear and disappear based on leaders

Linkage Institutions Political Parties Currently: People’s Democratic Party (PDP) – Obasanjo (1998) and Yar’Adua’s party of power, “won” in most parts of the country with Southern and Northern candidates Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) formed in 2009 from All Nigeria People’s Party (ANPP) – General Muhammad Buhari’s party Did not win election in 2011

Linkage Institutions Political Parties Currently: Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) – merger of many parties (2006), led by Atiku Abubakar (who was disqualified from running in 2007, then reinstated by the Supreme Court days before the election) 2013 All Progressives Congress – formed from the AC, ANPP and CPC – designed to run against PDP in 2015 elections (and Goodluck Jonathan)

2015 election VS

Results of 2015 Election

Linkage Institutions Why? 1998 Constitutional requirement Parties are becoming less regional, and increasingly run a “ticket” with candidates of different regions, campaigning across all of Nigeria Why? 1998 Constitutional requirement Presidential candidates must receive 25% of votes cast in at least 2/3 of all states to be declared a winner. Otherwise, a run-off occurs within 7 days with top two candidates. Attempt to prevent regional candidates from winning the presidency. Goal of a single president is to unite Nigeria

Linkage Institutions Elections Independent National Election Commission (INEC) requires parties to qualify for national elections with at least 5% of votes in 2/3 of states Legislative 109 Senators elected by popular vote (3 per state [36 states], 1 from Abuja) 360 House of Representatives elected in SMD plurality elections (360 Federal Constituencies) Presidential 2 ballot majority system (with the regional requirement) If not won in first ballot (25% of votes in 2/3 states), top two go to a simple run-off seven days later All elections usually involve fraud and irregularities

State Institutions Federalism Executive – President and Cabinet 36 states Doesn’t really work… dependent on central government Executive – President and Cabinet Directly elected – wanted to create a “national” leader (4 year term; 2 term limit) May appoint officials to all parts of national government without approval of legislature Controls public revenue (National Assembly has the right to pass a budget) – in USA Congress controls Federal Budget

State Institutions Legislature – parliamentary until 1979, now bicameral National Assembly Senators and Representatives serve 4 year terms, elected the week before the president Senate 109 Senators, 3 per state, 1 from Abuja Very diverse given the different regions that are equally represented House of Representatives 360 members Very little power, but occasionally acts as a check on president (like when Obasanjo wanted a 3rd term)

Linkage Institutions Civil Society Labor Unions – Babangida attempted to restrain their influence through corporatism, but they are still active Business Interests – historically collaborated with military, now push for economic reforms Human Rights Groups – protested Babangida and Abacha, promote democracy Mass Media – well developed, independent press in Nigeria mostly in the South, also reflective of regional divisions

State Institutions Bureaucracy – assumed to be bloated, corrupt, and inefficient Para-Statals – privately owned, but headed by government appointees (part of the patron-client network) Provide public utilities or major industries Nigerian Electric Power Administration (NEPA) – called “Never Expect Power Again” by Nigerians Changed name to Power Holding Company (PHC) – called “Please Hold Candle” by Nigerians State corporatism – para-statals serve to give the appearance of public/private cooperation, while really giving the state control

State Institutions Judiciary Federal and state courts with an appeals process up to the Supreme Court Strong and autonomous after independence, but since ravaged by military rule Most judges today are not well versed in law, easily manipulated by the government Theoretically in charge of judicial review, not practically Law is complicated by the sharia which operates in 12 northern states, controversially

State Institutions Military Military made distinctions between “military in government” and “military in barracks” after early coups “Military in government” presidents (like Babangida) had to restrain influence of traditional military Appointed senior military to cabinet positions to make them part of his patronage network The best place for young Nigerians to improve their lives, demonstrate their talents Controversial, but it is the one national institution with the capability to restore order

Public Policy Issues in Nigeria Oil – Strength or Weakness? Brings wealth from rents and gives Nigeria international clout, but makes Nigeria a rentier state Structural Adjustment Policy Collapse of oil prices in 1980’s led to massive public debt World Bank and IMF worked to restructure Nigeria’s debt provided it would implement “shock therapy” and reduce its dependence on oil Private economy still hasn’t expanded much since, parastatals still under state control

Religious and Ethnic Tensions Niger River Delta ~2006-present Issue is control of oil revenues and oil extraction Protests and violence towards foreign oil companies Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta – desires more oil revenues to the local economy Industrial sabotage, gun running Some companies have left, others have cut production 2011 UN report – 30 years and $41 billion to clean up oil spills in the mangroves Shell paid $1.7 million in compensation

Oil Extraction in Nigeria

Religious and Ethnic Tensions

Religious and Ethnic Tensions Problems persist in part because of the federal system: Oil wealth and resources are centralized, so there is lack of local control Corruption at the central and local level (police and security) is beyond the control of the federal system

Religious and Ethnic Tensions Boko Haram – reading and video