Habitat Climate Adaptation Tool (in development) Jess Silver, Joe Faries, Katie Arkema, Greg Guannel

Tool Objectives Identify key climate-related stressors that may affect marine or coastal habitats in a user’s region. Produce (or aid the user in producing) future habitat footprints based on climate-related changes in distribution.

Three tiered approach Data Heavy Data Light Future habitat footprint Relative vulnerability index What will be the future distribution of habitat given changes in climate-related variables? Where is habitat in my region most vulnerable to climate stressors? What are the major potential climate stressors to habitats in my region? Is my region highly vulnerable to these stressors, relative to the rest of world? Global vulnerability

Global vulnerability: marshes and SLR 1. Marshes are the key habitat in the system. 2. The key climate stressor is sea-level rise. 3. Tidal range and RSLR are major factors influencing vulnerability. Global vulnerability High RSLR (>3.5 mm/yr) Microtidal range Based on those parameters, the marshes at my site have increased vulnerability to SLR, relative to the rest of the world.

Future habitat footprint Data Heavy Data Light Future habitat footprint Relative vulnerability index Global vulnerability Where is habitat in my region most vulnerable to climate stressors? What are the major potential climate stressors to habitats in my region? Is my region highly vulnerable to these stressors, relative to the rest of world? What will be the future distribution of habitat given changes in climate-related variables?

Climate adaptation tool INPUTS: map of marsh migration potential, DEM, accretion rates, tidal datum, sea-level rise scenario

Climate adaptation tool OUTPUTS: future saltmarsh distribution

Climate adaptation tool: outputs

Questions?

Relative vulnerability index Data Heavy Data Light Future habitat footprint Relative vulnerability index What will be the future distribution of my marine and coastal habitats given changes in climate-related variables? Where are the marine and coastal habitats in my region most vulnerable to climate-related stressors? What are the major potential climate-related stressors to marine and coastal habitats in my region? Is my region highly vulnerable to these stressors, relative to the rest of world? Global vulnerability

RELATIVE VULNERABILITY 1. EXPOSURE (spatially explicit) Forcing (SLR, waves) Habitat Tidal Range Wave Exposure SLR 2. SENSITIVITY (ranked criteria) - Anticipated consequence of the climate stressor on the habitat. - Resilience of the habitat based on species’ life history characteristics. RELATIVE VULNERABILITY An index of the relative vulnerability of habitats to anticipated climate change stressors. 3. POTENTIAL FOR ADAPTATION (spatially explicit) Potential for inland migration: Land use barriers to migration Slope Potential for vertical accretion: 2. Sediment supply and/or accretion rates Land Use Patch Size Slope Accretion

5. Compute relative vulnerability index Sum of all rasters Relative vulnerability index # of variables

Relative Vulnerability Index Exclude interior mangroves?