TOPAZ monitoring and forecasting system

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Presentation transcript:

TOPAZ monitoring and forecasting system L. Bertino, G. Evensen, K.A. Lisæter, H. Sagen, N. Winther, F. Counillon http://topaz.nersc.no

Objectives To provide the best possible ocean current forecasts (10 days to 1 month ahead) and improve the understanding of the ocean circulation and variability. How? by integrated use of a numerical model and remote sensing via data assimilation.

The ingredients 3D numerical ocean model Observations HYCOM (U. Miami, USA) Sea Ice model Biogeoch. model (AWI, D) Observations Altimetry, SST (CLS, F) Sea Ice (NSIDC, USA) In-situ (CORIOLIS, F) Data assimilation Ensemble Kalman Filter [Evensen 1994, 2003, 2004]

The TOPAZ model system TOPAZ: Atlantic and Arctic Nested models 18-35 km resolution 22 hybrid layers EnKF assimilation Nested models Arbitrary resolution Arbitrary orientation Specific assimilation

Weekly Forecast Cycle Weekly cycle Next month Forecast Last week Present week Forecast Analysis Nowcast Analysis Nowcast Weekly cycle Atmospheric forcing fields from ECMWF

What is data assimilation? Goal: make models respect observations Optimal control theory Optimize control parameters (forcing, initial) To fit measurements Spatial statistics theory Measurements have a domain of influence Physical variables are linked in complex ways Complementary views on the problem.

TOPAZ forecast 23rd Oct. Ocean temperature and ice

HYCOM v1.3 ETOPO5 bathymetry HYCOM v2.1 GEBCO bathymetry

HYCOM1 ETOPO5 Feroe -Shetland Ridge HYCOM2 GEBCO

Next efforts Oceanographic validation of the system (1 PhD) More data to assimilate Ice thickness Ice drift Sea Surface Salinity

High-resolution forecasting 1 Post-Doc 1 PhD

Gulf of Mexico forecast Oct. 20 Illustration: François Counillon

Note Hurricane “Ivan” at day Analysis + 6

Validation overlay with ocean color data from MODIS (not assimilated) From June to Sept. 2004: eddy shedding

Future perspectives Nordic Seas (1 Post-Doc + 1 PhD) Illustrations by H. Sagen and N. Winther

And more … Illustr. G. Evensen Illustr. C. Hansen

Ecosystem forecasting 1 Post Doc 1 PhD student

Ecosystem modelling 3D ecosystem model: FDM coupled with HYCOM Illustration L.J. Natvik January to May 1997

It’s not the end of the road… Conclusion It’s not the end of the road…