Economics of Global Food Demand and Land Use Ron Sands Birgit Meade USDA Economic Research Service 16th National Conference and Global Forum on Science,

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Presentation transcript:

Economics of Global Food Demand and Land Use Ron Sands Birgit Meade USDA Economic Research Service 16th National Conference and Global Forum on Science, Policy and the Environment Arlington, Virginia January 21, 2016 The views expressed are those of the authors and should not be attributed to the Economic Research Service or USDA

Overview Drivers of agricultural demand and supply Population growth Growth in per capita income Agricultural productivity growth Climate change Demand for bioenergy Two ways to look at change Over time (e.g. the present through 2050) At a point in time (e.g. comparing a reference scenario to a climate change scenario in 2050)

Combinations in green are from ISI-MIP project published in Nelson et al. (2014). The current study expands the number of RCP x SSP combinations. Three climate models: HadGEM (UK), IPSL (?), MIROC (Japan) Muhammad, Andrew, James L. Seale, Jr., Birgit Meade, and Anita Regmi. International Evidence on Food Consumption Patterns: An Update Using 2005 International Comparison Program Data. TB-1929. U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, Econ. Res. Serv. March 2011.

The climate modeling chain: From biophysical to socioeconomic D Productivity

Economic variables Exogenous yield shocks Expressed as either: Code Variable Comments YEXO Exogenous yield shocks Expressed as either: Percent change over time, from 2005 through 2050, also considering changes in population and income, or Percent change at a point in time (2050), relative to reference scenario YTOT Realized yield after management adaptation AREA Agricultural area in production PROD Total production CONS Total consumption EXPO Exports IMPO Imports PRICE Price

Percent change in global economic variables from 2005 to 2050 Pooled results for five commodities (rice, wheat, coarse grains, oil seeds, sugar) from five economic models (n = 25), aggregated across 13 world regions. The boxes and whiskers depict 5th, 25th, 50th, 75th, and 95th percentiles.

challenges for mitigation challenges for adaptation Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) SSP 5 (mitigation challenges dominate) Conventional Development SSP 3 (high challenges) Fragmentation challenges for mitigation Socio-economic SSP 2 (intermediate challenges) Middle of the Road SSP 1 (low challenges) Sustainability SSP 4 (adaptation challenges dominate) Inequality Socio-economic challenges for adaptation Source: O’Neill, B.C., E. Kriegler, K. Riahi, K. Ebi, S. Hallegatte, T.R. Carter, R. Mathur, D.P. van Vuuren. February 2014. “A New Scenario Framework for Climate Change Research: The Concept of Shared Socio-Economic Pathways,” Special Issue on “A Framework for the Development of New Socioeconomic Scenarios for Climate Change Research,” Climatic Change 122(3): 387-400.

Economic Responses to a Decline in Agricultural Productivity Due to Climate Change The black diamond is the average (mean) percent change with climate change compared to no climate change in year 2050; the height of a column is the range across climate models, crop models, and economic models. Results are a world average across major field crops: wheat, rice, coarse grains, and oil seeds. Source: Nelson et al. (2014) Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 111(9): 3274-3279.

References Muhammad, Andrew, James L. Seale, Jr., Birgit Meade, and Anita Regmi. International Evidence on Food Consumption Patterns: An Update Using 2005 International Comparison Program Data. TB-1929. U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, Econ. Res. Serv. March 2011. Special issue of Agricultural Economics on AgMIP global economic scenarios (January 2014) Nelson, G.C., H. Valin, R.D. Sands, P. Havlik, H. Ahammad, D. Deryng, J. Elliott, S. Fujimori, T. Hasegawa, E. Heyhoe, P. Kyle, M. von Lampe, H. Lotze-Campen, D. Mason d’Croz, H. van Meijl, D. van der Mensbrugghe, C. Müller, A. Popp, R. Robertson, S. Robinson, E. Schmid, C. Schmitz, A. Tabeau, and D. Willenbockel, 4 March 2014, “Climate change effects on agriculture: Economic responses to biophysical shocks,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (special feature) 111(9): 3274-3279. Sands, R.D., H. Förster, C.A. Jones and K. Schumacher, 2014, “Bio-electricity and Land Use in the Future Agricultural Resources Model (FARM),” Climatic Change (special issue) 123(3-4): 719-730. Sands, Ronald D., Carol A. Jones, and Elizabeth Marshall. Global Drivers of Agricultural Demand and Supply, ERR-174, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, September 2014. Wiebe, K., H. Lotze-Campen, R.D. Sands, A. Tabeau, D. van der Mensbrugghe, A. Biewald, B. Bodirsky, S. Islam, A. Kavallari, D. Mason-D'Croz; C. Mueller, A. Popp, R. Robertson, S. Robinson, H. van Meijl and D. Willenbockel, 2015, “Climate change impacts on agriculture in 2050 under a range of plausible socioeconomic and emissions scenarios,” Environmental Research Letters 10 085010.