The TPB What Would It Take Scenario: Meeting Regional Climate Change Mitigation Goals for the Mobile Sector Presentation to MWAQC CAC June 15, 2009 Monica.

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Presentation transcript:

The TPB What Would It Take Scenario: Meeting Regional Climate Change Mitigation Goals for the Mobile Sector Presentation to MWAQC CAC June 15, 2009 Monica Bansal Department of Transportation Planning National Capital Region Transportation Planning Board (TPB) Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments (COG)

TPB’s Current Climate Change Efforts Using goals set in COG Climate Change Report Return to 2005 levels by 2012 20% below 2005 levels by 2020 80% below 2005 levels by 2050 Developing baseline mobile GHG projections through 2030 Analyzing a “What Would It Take?” scenario to see what reductions in the mobile sector will be necessary to meet regional goals Seeking GHG reduction strategies that could be included in the region’s transportation plans and programs

2010 Travel and CO2 Emissions 8-Hour Ozone Non-Attainment Area Where are Transportation Emissions Coming From? 2010 Travel and CO2 Emissions 8-Hour Ozone Non-Attainment Area VMT (billions) - Annual % CO2 Emissions (Millions of Tons) - Annual Passenger Cars 19.06 47% 6.76 24% Light Duty Trucks 18.94 46% 15.38 56% Heavy Duty 2.94 7% 5.46 20% Total 40.95 100% 27.60 source: 2007 CLRP

The WWIT Scenario Analyze three categories of strategies to reduce mobile CO2 emissions for effectiveness, cost-effectiveness, and implementation timeframe Assess combinations of strategies from these three categories: Fuel Efficiency Fuel Carbon Intensity Travel Efficiency Reduce VMT through changes in land use, travel behavior, prices Reduce congestion Improve operational efficiency Beyond CAFE standards Alternative fuels (biofuels, hydrogen, electricity)

Example Mobile GHG Reduction Strategies to be Examined Fuel Efficiency Extending CAFE requirements to heavy trucks Cash for Clunkers programs Benefits of enhanced CAFE possibilities (current Obama proposal) Alternative Fuels Regional green fleet policy Accelerated adoption of clean-fuel vehicles (hybrids, flex fuel) Travel Efficiency: Pricing policies to reduce VMT (tolling, congestion pricing, parking pricing) Shift short trips to non-motorized modes Increased transit capacity Land use shifts (TOD, walkable activity centers) Signal optimization

Getting to the goal of 40% reduction below 2005 levels by 2030 Do these strategies get us there?

What Next? More TERMS GHG benefits of transportation/land use scenario (CLRP Aspirations Scenario) Cost-effectiveness analysis