Evaluating the Use of Publicly Available Building Permit Data to Complement Data Collection and Analysis of Construction Surveys Angela Delano Economic Directorate, United States Census Bureau UNECE Workshop on Survey Collection Disclaimer: Any views expressed in this presentation are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the U.S. Census Bureau.

Why Construction Surveys? Government agencies, policy analysts, financial institutions, and manufacturers in the United States use new construction data collected by the U.S. Census Bureau New construction data helps measure and evaluate size, composition, and change occurring within the U.S. housing and construction sectors What surveys collect new residential construction data? Building Permit Survey (BPS) Survey of Construction (SOC)

Building Permit Survey Voluntary survey measuring new, privately-owned, residential construction authorized by building permits in permit-issuing places Provides national, regional, state, and local data Number of Buildings Number of Housing Units Permit Valuation Over 20,000 permit-issuing places of which ≈ 8,500 are surveyed monthly (remaining annually) Funded and conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau

BPS Questionnaire

Survey of Construction Voluntary survey measuring new, privately-owned, residential housing units authorized in permit-issuing places and in areas where building permits are not required Provides national and regional data only Start and Completion Dates Characteristics (beds, baths, floors, square footage, etc.) Sales Data (date, price, financing) for single-family only Sample based off BPS, ≈ 950 places surveyed monthly Partially funded by the Department of Housing and Urban Development, conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau Each month new construction sampled via Monthly sample of building permits from predefined permit-issuing places Canvassing operation for new construction in predefined non-permit-issuing places Once sampled, survey returns to same housing unit approximately every month until completion and/or sale

SOC Listing Operation

SOC Interviewing Operation

Expending More Resources…   Monthly Building Permit Survey - January 2016 to January 2017 Reporting Source Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Reports Received 68% 69% 65% 66% 67% Paper Reporting 40% 41% 39% 36% 37% 38% Electronic Reporting 4% 3% 2% Internet Reporting 24% 23% 22% 27% 26% 28% Reports not Received 32% 31% 35% 34% 33% Data from SOC Data from Imputation 30% 29% Data not Received 1% Sample Size 8,457 8,460 8,456 8,454 8,455 8,453 Reporting Source Distribution for the Monthly Building Permit Survey Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Building Permit Survey; Monthly Place Level Files

…Increases Burden and Cost   Housing Units Authorized by the Monthly Building Permit Survey - January 2016 to January 2017 Reporting Source 0 Units > 0 Units > 2 Units > 15 Units > 60 Units > 150 Units > 350 Units > 900 Units Reports Received 69% 61% 67% 65% 62% 51% 38% Paper Reporting 46% 33% 32% 29% 26% 27% 28% Electronic Reporting 4% 3% 1% 2% 0% Internet Reporting 20% 24% 37% 36% 10% Reports not Received 31% 39% 35% 49% 63% Data from SOC 7% 15% 42% 60% Data from Imputation 30% 11% Data not Received Sample Size 53,817 21,177 22,574 8,697 2,320 902 356 80 Reporting Source Distribution for the Monthly Building Permit Survey by Number of Housing Units Authorized Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Building Permit Survey, Monthly Place Level Files

What is a Researcher to do? Examine the use of publicly available building permit data to complement data collection and analysis methods for measuring new construction Why? Reduce respondent burden from multiple requests for similar survey data Increase response rates if frequency and/or complexity of other survey requests is reduced Increase data quality through reducing data collection errors and analyzing new information

New Data Sources Permit-issuing places have begun making permit information available publicly Application Programming Interfaces (APIs) Building Permit Issuance Reports Searchable Building Permit Databases Content, format, and accessibility vary widely Investigate advantages & limitations related to Coverage Timeliness Completeness Classification Validity

Coverage…with a Caveat Not every permit-issuing place will have publicly available information General permitting information for some APIs more appropriate for places issuing large numbers of building permits Research coverage focus Austin, TX Boston, MA Cary Town, NC Chicago, IL Las Vegas, NV Mesa, AZ Nashville, TN San Jose, CA Seattle, WA

Timeliness…is Important Frequency of data source updates is important Monthly Biweekly Weekly Daily Infrequent updates or potential missed updates due to human or computer error will introduce uncertainty and error into estimates Highest frequency updates = APIs Lowest frequency updates = Reports

Completeness for BPS… Building Permit Survey Publicly Available Data Sources - Application Programming Interfaces Austin TX Boston MA Cary Town NC Chicago IL Las Vegas NV Mesa AZ Nashville TN San Jose CA Seattle WA Residential Data Needed Type (residential, commercial, etc.) Yes   Number of Buildings Number of Housing Units Occupancy Dwelling Valuation Availability of Residential Data for the Monthly Building Permit Survey via New Publicly Available Data Sources Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Building Permit Survey, How the Data are Collected & Publicly Available Data Sources Austin, Cary Town, Mesa and San Jose excellent candidates for BPS Boston does not report classification Nashville and Seattle do not report housing units Chicago and Las Vegas do not report either type

…May be Different for SOC Survey of Construction Publicly Available Data Sources - Application Programming Interfaces   Austin TX Boston MA Cary Town NC Chicago IL Las Vegas NV Mesa AZ Nashville TN San Jose CA Seattle WA Residential Data Needed Permit Information Permit Number Yes Issue Date Housing Units Occupancy Dwelling Construction Information Construction Description Address (Full, Partial, None) Full Partial Construction Dates Start Date Certificate of Occupancy Completion Date Respondent Information Applicant Contractor Applicant Contractor Owner Contractor Contact Applicant Contractor Owner Building Characteristics Condo Sq Foot > 25 Single-Family Items < 20 Multifamily Items Floors Availability of Residential Data for the Survey of Construction via New Publicly Available Data Sources Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Building Permit Survey, How the Data are Collected & Publicly Available Data Sources

…So Take the Good with the Bad Survey of Construction Publicly Available Data Sources - Application Programming Interfaces   Austin TX Boston MA Cary Town NC Chicago IL Las Vegas NV Mesa AZ Nashville TN San Jose CA Seattle WA Residential Data Needed Permit Information Permit Number Yes Issue Date Housing Units Occupancy Dwelling Construction Information Construction Description Address (Full, Partial, None) Full Partial Construction Dates Start Date Certificate of Occupancy Completion Date Respondent Information Applicant Contractor Applicant Contractor Owner Contractor Contact Applicant Contractor Owner Building Characteristics Condo Sq Foot > 25 Single-Family Items < 20 Multifamily Items Floors Availability of Residential Data for the Survey of Construction via New Publicly Available Data Sources Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Building Permit Survey, How the Data are Collected & Publicly Available Data Sources For Estimating Completion Dates For Collecting Characteristics

Classification…What are you? Permit-issuing places vary in reporting housing units Significant data item for BPS and SOC! When housing unit information unavailable, use of construction classification may suffice Austin, Cary Town, Mesa, Nashville, San Jose, and Seattle When construction classification is unavailable Location Outlier Information (network analysis of lat/long) Permit Valuation Information (house $ < apartment $ < mixed-use $) Work Description (topic modeling via text analysis)

Validity… Prior to incorporation new data sources must be validated against current survey data Against BPS, validation against total Number of buildings (complete) Construction value (complete) Against SOC, validation against Listing of building permits (ongoing) Interview for building characteristics (future)

Validity…Seattle, WA API Classified Permits to BPS Buildings (left) and SOC Permits (right)

Validity…Nashville, TN API Classified Permits to BPS Buildings (left) and SOC Permits (right)

Validity…Las Vegas, NV API Classified Permits to BPS Buildings (left) and SOC Permits (right)

Validity…Mesa, AZ API Classified Permits to BPS Buildings (left) and SOC Permits (right)

Summary New publicly available building permit data sources are available Mainly for permit-issuing places issuing larger numbers of permits Reduction of respondent burden and increase in response rates looks promising Increased data quality Reduce data collection errors Analysis of new information not currently collected Development of new measures Differences to contend with Formats (API, Report, Databases, etc.) Availability Classification (residential vs commercial) Definitional (unit vs dwelling, square footage, etc.) Missing information (housing unit, building characteristics)

Thank You! Please reach out with any questions or comments Angela Delano angela.lynn.delano@census.gov