We’re Doing an Experiment One psychic to be tested One person to administer the experiment (me) One recorder to write down the results This is to ensure a proper double-blind procedure One randomized deck of Zener Cards

Zener Cards Here are your options:

The Results What’s the percentage of “hits?” Somewhere around 20%, perhaps? Seems like a lot, really, but it’s not Most people don’t understand probability Take my dad’s motorcycle…

Magnification/Catastrophization People think a single event creates a general pattern They explode that event and give it greater significance than it really has You need more than one data point to form a reliable conclusion

Emotional Reasoning Often responsible for catastrophizing “I’m afraid the motorcycle will crash, therefore it will” The two are completely unrelated Often people see what they want to see, or what they’re afraid of The “evening news effect”

Cherry-Picking Evidence If you count just the “misses,” you’re Disqualifying the Positive The evidence has to speak for itself You can count just the “hits,” too, and it’s just as wrong It’s the Mental Filter thinking error All or Nothing thinking

Black and White? Is guessing 20% of the cards a total failure? A bad person from one bad action “You’re either with us or against us” This is called the “False Dilemma” Use Lipozene or stay fat

Fixing Black and White Thought Finding the grey area 20% success A good person who’s done a few bad things Find other options Remaining neutral Diet and exercise Reject the dilemma A politician says “Vote for me or the country will go down the tubes”

Ignoring the Evidence That’s what it’s all about The Emperor’s New Clothes Snake Oil Hucksters The Loch Ness Monster

Thinking Errors and Evidence Catastrophization Ignores a lack of positive evidence Emotional Reasoning Uses emotions as substitute for evidence Disqualifying the Positive Ignores positive evidence Black and White Thinking Ignores alternative solutions or ideas

More Thinking Errors Mind Reading Labeling and Overgeneralization Makes assertions with no evidence at all Labeling and Overgeneralization Uses a single piece of evidence to sum up an entire person or thing These can be applied to yourself or your relationships or to reality itself Ignoring evidence leads to misrepresenting reality

Evidence and Real Life Is one experiment enough? Does a single failure render you a failure? Should you ignore your successes? If someone is a jerk to you once, does it make sense to label them a total jerk? Should you ignore when they’re nice? Should you write them off immediately?

Evidence and Real Life You shouldn’t make a conclusion until you have a good amount of evidence Jumping to conclusions is the easy way out It is okay to say “I don’t know” or “I’m suspending my judgment”

Your Horoscopes Find a nice corner of the room by yourself Your horoscopes were ordered from a licensed astrologer, therefore they’re as accurate as horoscopes get Read over them Think about how accurate they are

The Reveal You all got the same horoscope! It was based on my birthday Look at them more critically Pick out accuracies and inaccuracies Chances are you ignored the inaccuracies because you were seeing what you expected to see

“Confirmation Bias” Letting your perceptions be colored by prior assumptions and biases What is a bias? At work in Emotional Reasoning, Mind Reading, Catastrophization, Minimization, Labeling, Mental Filter, etc.

How and Why The “how” for thinking errors Cherry picking Ignoring evidence The “why” for thinking errors So you can continue to believe what you already believe So you won’t have to change your mind So you can believe what you want instead of what is

Reality is that which, when you stop believing in it, doesn’t go away. --Phillip K. Dick

The Fallout Poor thinking can affect you personally Wanting to be miserable Feeling like a victim It can also affect you outside your head If you don’t see reality for what it is instead of what you want it to be, you can believe all sorts of silly things You might even get hurt, or hurt someone else

Dr. Don I need a volunteer to be a “patient” I’m sorry, sir, but you have lung cancer You don’t want surgery, chemo, or radiation because they’re scary But never fear, because I have the miracle cure!

What Might Happen? With your perceptions of reality colored by fear, desperation, and a bias against proven treatment, what might happen? What might the fallout be of a poor decision made against the evidence, because you wanted something to be true, or because you refused to investigate alternatives?

Question yourself! Thinking Errors effect more than just your own attitude They can color your perception of reality in inaccurate and dangerous ways The first step is to always question your own perceptions

Perception is Fallible This is exploited by optical illusions Humans are fallible It is vital to question your perceptions and judgments of people, events, or things and look for the evidence Don’t jump to conclusions

Examine Your Biases Examine your personal biases Why do you hold them? Are they justified by the evidence? Do you want them to be true? Are you afraid they might be true? Did you just make them up?